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Super Bowl Prop Bets – Betting on SB 45 Props

While the major betting that takes place on the Super Bowl is obviously which team will win, there are a plethora of other bets that are laid down on events and statistics that occur during the game, known as props. Here is a closer look at 4 of these props, and where the smart money lies for them…

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Super Bowl 45 Prop Bets

Total Sacks by Both Teams – Over 5 (-125)

At first glance, one may look at the two quarterbacks in this game and decide that based on their impressive mobility, the sack total will be kept pretty low. However, a closer look at the stats suggests that the more likely scenario is that these two teams easily combine for over 5 sacks in the game. The biggest reason for this is the two defenses. The top two teams in the league in sacks during the regular season were, you guessed it, the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers. The Steelers had 48, while the Packers were right behind with 47. This means that on a per game basis, the Steelers averaged 3 sacks per game, and Green Bay averaged around 2.94. This suggests that we can expect just about 6 sacks in this game, which of course would be the over. It is also important to realize that despite their mobility, Rodgers and Roethlisberger are not immune to being sacked. Rodgers was sacked 31 times in 15 games, which is slightly more than 2 times per game on average, while Big Ben was taken down 32 times in 12 games, which is about 2.67 times per game. While these are not staggering numbers, it does suggest that they are certainly capable of being taken down. One must also consider that many of those games for each quarterback came against bad teams with weak pass rushes. In this game, both quarterbacks will be facing basically the best pass rushing defense in either conference. Throw in the added pressure of a quarterback not to make any big mistakes in the Super Bowl, and they may be more inclined to hang onto the ball for a second or two longer than usual. The sack total should hit at least 6 in this one. click here to bet it

Rashard Mendenhall – Total Rushing Yards – Over 81.5 (-115)

One of the keys to the game for the Steelers is to get Rashard Mendenhall going. For Roethlisberger to be successful in the passing game, the Steelers need to have a good balance of rushing plays to keep the Green Bay defense off balance. For as much talk as Roethlisberger garners with his play, let us not forget that Pittsburgh are first and foremost a power running team. In addition, while the Packers obviously have a solid defense, they are not incredibly difficult to run on. They rank in the middle of the pack (no pun intended) in terms of rushing yards per game, giving up 114.9 yards on the ground during the regular reason. They also actually rank almost last in the league in rush yards per attempt at 4.7, something you can bet the Steelers will be well aware of. Basically this means that Green Bay have not been run on enough times per game, and opposing teams would do well to consider that. You can bet Mike Tomlin has looked at these numbers and will be generating a game plan to capitalize on the fact that the Packers are giving up almost 5 yards on every carry. While Mendenhall didn’t have a completely dominant year, he still averaged about 80 yards per game in the regular season, and is coming off a 121 yard effort against the Jets. In a game that will be decided by ball and clock management, expect Pittsburgh to try and control both by running the ball as much as they can, and for Mendenhall to easily eclipse the over here. click here to bet it

Aaron Rodgers – Total Completions – Over 22.5 (-120)

This prop makes sense when you consider a couple of facts that are quite apparent about the two teams in the Super Bowl. Fact #1: The Green Bay Packers have one of the most successful offenses in the league. Fact #2: The Pittsburgh Steelers are impossible to run on. When you combine these two facts, you are left to consider that Green Bay will have offensive success in the Super Bowl — they are too good not to, and yet they will likely struggle to run the ball considering they don’t have a very good running game to begin with, and they are facing a team that simply does not give up rushing yardage — allowing only 62.8 yards per game. This means that for the Packers to have success, they will be relying even more heavily upon their offensive catalyst Aaron Rodgers to guide them down the field. This likely means a lot of short, quick slants and screens in place of rush attempts. Playing in a temperature controlled stadium, Rodgers will not have to worry about the cold like he did in Chicago or Philly. Consider his numbers in Atlanta where the conditions were similar to what they will be in Dallas: 31 completions and 366 yards. Rodgers toughest opponent is probably the weather, and now that he won’t have to deal with that, expect him to let loose. The Packers have made it to the Super Bowl on the strength of his arm. And it seems foolish to expect them to change the game plan too much at this point. Rodgers goes over here. click here to bet it

Greg Jennings – Total Receptions – Over 5 (-155)

As has already been made clear, Aaron Rodgers needs to throw the ball for Green Bay to win the game, plain and simple. And when he does, the first person he will be looking for is usually Greg Jennings. Jennings had 8 receptions in the last two playoff games for the Packers, and Green Bay has not lost a game this season when he has recorded over 5 receptions. That should be incentive enough for Jennings to remain an integral part of the game plan. While the Steelers have some talented guys in their secondary, they do not have a shut down cornerback like Derrelle Revis who can completely shut down a receiver, so Jennings should not have too much difficulty getting open. The fact that the Packers have so many other talented receivers actually helps Jennings, as the Steelers can’t overload their coverage on Jennings lest they risk leaving someone like Jordy Nelson or James Jones open. Jennings should be good for at least 6 or 7 receptions, easily surpassing the over here, as he and Aaron Rodgers attempt to lead the aerial charge against the Steelers on Sunday. click here to bet it

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Written By: | February 6th, 2011