Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – NFL Week 12

Kansas City (9-1) at Tampa Bay (7-4)


The Buccaneers have a 7-5 record vs. Kansas City and they have won five in a row in the series. The last Chiefs win was 27-3 in 1993 at Arrowhead Stadium. Tampa Bay won the last meeting, 19-17, in 2016 – also at Arrowhead.


Kansas City has won it’s last five games with it’s vaunted offense that is averaging 35 points per game over those five outings. The Buccaneers have lost two of their last three as both of those are the vaunted night games in which are 0-3. This game is a late afternoon kick-off and will be after dark by halftime, so it’s uncertain if those environs will be an issue.

Vs. The Spread

Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in the last five games in this series. The Chiefs are 15-4 ATS and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. The number has gone over in eight of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Chiefs -3 (-130) -185 O 56.5 (-107)
Buccaneers +3 (+110) +165 U 56.5 (-113)

Last week

It was more Mahomes Magic in Las Vegas as Patrick Mahomes completed 34 of 45 passes for 348 yards. He completed a 7-play, 75-yard drive by hitting Travis Kelce with a 22-yard touchdown pass with 28 seconds remaining to lift Kansas City to a 35-31 win.

The Buccaneers battled the Rams before losing 27-24 on a late Matt Gay field goal. Tom Brady threw two interceptions as the Buccaneers running game was stymied and Brady had to air the ball out more than the Bucs would have wanted.

When the Chiefs Have the Ball

Kansas City Chiefs LogoMahomes continues to baffle his opponents with the quickest release in the NFL to one of the deepest corps of receivers in Mercole Hardman, Tyreek Hill, and Demarcus Robinson as they are built around Kelce and running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Hill had a season high 11 catches with 102 yards last week while Kelce aims for his fourth game in a row with eight catches and over 100 yards.

This is a challenge for the Bucs’ defense as it feels like one of the matchups with the Saints where Drew Brees spread out the defense and minimized the playmaking skills of what has become a really young and exciting group. Linebackers Devin White and Lavonte David continue to have Pro Bowl seasons as White is second in the league with 97 tackles.

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LogoTampa Bay has to have a big night out of Ronald Jones to keep the Chiefs’ offense off the field. Jones only rushed for 24 yards last week against a much sturdier Rams rush defense. Kansas City gives up 133 yards per game on the ground, 26th in the NFL. Of course, it’s an injured Tampa Bay offensive line with starters Ali Marpet and A.Q. Shipley missing.

Brady needs more patience when under duress; however, the short passing game could complement the run and the idea of trying to minimize the Chiefs’ offensive plays. Chris Godwin has a touchdown catch in six of his last seven games while Mike Evans looks for a TD reception in his third consecutive game.

NFL Betting Predictions

Winner: Chiefs (-3) 34, Buccaneers 24
Over-Under: Take Over 56.5

The Bets
Kansas City Chiefs -3
Over 56.5
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Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.