Going into week 10, our model(s) continue to perform slightly better than the 52.4% required to break even when betting against the spread. The table below provides all our computer predictions going into week 10. We analyzed them and determined what we think, are the best games to bet on.
|Chargers (46%)||Raiders (54%)||Raiders by 6|
|Giants (57%)||Jets (43%)||Giants by 2|
|Falcons (16%)||Saints (84%)||Saints by 10|
|Chiefs (58%)||Titans (42%)||Chiefs by 2|
|Ravens (80%)||Bengals (20%)||Ravens by 8|
|Bills (63%)||Browns (37%)||Bills by 4.5|
|Cardinals (21%)||Buccaneers (79%)||Buccaneers by 7|
|Lions (45%)||Bears (55%)||Bears by 3.5|
|Dolphins (34%)||Colts (66%)||Colts by 5|
|Panthers (42%)||Packers (58%)||Packers by 6|
|Rams (79%)||Steelers (21%)||Rams by 4.5|
|Vikings (45%)||Cowboys (55%)||Cowboys by 4|
|Seahawks (45%)||49ers (55%)||49ers by 3|
Here Are Our Recommended Bets for Week 10:
Against the Spread
Cardinals @ Buccaneers (-4.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Buccaneers to win by 7) – Both teams had impressive performances last week even though they ended in losses. The Cardinals gave the undefeated 49ers a run for their money, and the Buccaneers forced OT against the Seahawks. This week’s matchup will be tough for the Cardinals. They rank 29th against the pass and the Buccaneers are a top 10 ranked passing offense. The Buccaneers have a good rushing defense which means Kyler Murray would have to play his heart out to get a win. While it’s possible, it’s not probable. The Buccaneers will get the win, but it’ll likely be a shootout and Tampa has better weapons on offense.
Rams @ Steelers (+3.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Rams to win by 4.5) – Outside of Brandin Cooks who is still considered “day to day” the Rams offense is healthy and coming off a bye. Both teams have similar defenses so offensive firepower will be key. The Rams clearly have the advantage here and while Mike Tomlin’s coaching will keep the Steelers in the game, it won’t get them the win.
Chiefs @ Titans (+3.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Chiefs to win by 2) – I think the Chiefs will win this. How much they win by depends entirely on whether Patrick Mahomes can play or not. The Chiefs are 2-1 under Matt Moore and picked up an impressive win over the Vikings last week. Even if Moore starts, the Chiefs will still win but it’ll be a much closer game. Tyreek Hill will wreak havoc on a struggling Titans’ secondary and be the key factor for this game outside of Mahomes status.
Bills @ Browns (-3) – (Our AI system predicts the Bills to win by 4.5) – The Browns have been a disaster so far this season. Freddie Kitchens has looked completely clueless and it’s astonishing he still even has a job. Surprisingly, the Browns are favorites for this game. If they want to win, there’s only one thing to do: run the ball. The Bills have given up 150 rushing yards on average over their past three games. It’s an obvious weakness that needs to be addressed. All Kitchens needs to do is hand the rock to Nick Chubb and let him go to work. But somehow, he will mess it up. On the flip side, if the Bills can make any sort of improvement against the run, then they have a great chance to come away with a victory. Both QB’s love to turn the ball over, so whoever can mitigate turnovers and better defend the run will win. Our AI system takes the Bills 63% of the time.