Going into week 11, our model(s) continue to perform slightly better than the 52.4% required to break even when betting against the spread. The table below provides all our computer predictions going into week 11. We analyzed them and determined what we think, are the best games to bet on.
|Steelers (52%)||Browns (48%)||Steelers by 1|
|Jets (55%)||Redskins (45%)||Jets by 3|
|Jaguars (65%)||Colts (35%)||Jaguars by 6|
|Bills (59%)||Dolphins (41%)||Bills by 3|
|Cowboys (62%)||Lions (38%)||Cowboys by 5|
|Texans (51%)||Ravens (49%)||Texans by 1|
|Falcons (52%)||Panthers (48%)||Falcons by 1|
|Saints (76%)||Buccaneers (24%)||Saints by 8|
|Broncos (34%)||Vikings (66%)||Vikings by 4|
|Cardinals (42%)||49ers (58%)||49ers by 2|
|Patriots (79%)||Eagles (21%)||Patriots by 6|
|Bengals (18%)||Raiders (82%)||Raiders by 10|
|Bears (45%)||Rams (55%)||Rams by 2|
|Chiefs (63%)||Chargers (37%)||Chiefs by 6|
Here Are Our Recommended Bets for Week 11
Against the Spread
Patriots @ Eagles (+3.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Patriots to win by 6) – The Patriots coming off a bye means Bill Belichick has had an extra week to prepare. 9 times out of 10 that means the opposing team is in for a miserable day. That streak continues in week 11 as the Patriots are going to handle the Eagles and win by 6. The Patriot’s offensive plan will be to dismantle a lackluster Eagle’s secondary. TB12 and company have been waiting for this game since they lost Super Bowl LII.
Saints @ Buccaneers (+4.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Saints to win by 8) – The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road. They just came off a tough loss but will look to rebound (Drew Brees and the Saints don’t have many back-to-back weeks of bad games). The Buccaneers defense is allowing 31 points per game. Both Brees and Kamara will have productive days as they win this shootout by 8.
Cowboys @ Lions (PK) – (Our AI system predicts the Cowboys to win by 5) – The only game that doesn’t have an opening line and that’s because oddsmakers still aren’t sure if Matthew Stafford will play. Even if Stafford were to play, an aggravated back is nothing to mess with and one wrong fall can send him right back to the sideline. I foresee the Cowboys winning this game regardless and the computer seems to agree with me. They’re 5-1 both SU and ATS in their last 6 games against NFC teams. The Lions? They’re 0-4 and 1-3 in their last four ATS and SU respectively.
Broncos @ Vikings (-10.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Vikings to win by 4) – Rookie QB Brandon Allen will be making his first career road start against the undefeated (at home) Vikings. That’s less than ideal to say the least. On top of that, the Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL at stopping the run this season. On top of that top, Kirk Cousins is ELITE when facing a team that’s below .500 (hint – that trend will continue this week).
Jaguars @ Colts (-3) – (Our AI system predicts the Jaguars to win by 6) – The Colts do not perform well against the Jaguars. Since 2015, they’re 0-7-1 ATS when facing Jacksonville. Nick Foles is returning from injury this week which will be a big morale boost (even though I’m still riding the Minshew Mania hype train). The Colt’s will start Brissett this week if he’s able to fully practice tomorrow. If not, they’ll turn back to Hoyer for another week. I think Foles comes out and reestablishes his presence as QB#1 in his first game back since week 1.