Going into week 8, our model(s) continue to perform slightly better than the 52.4% required to break even when betting against the spread. The table below provides all our computer predictions going into week 8. We analyzed them and determined what we think, are the best games to bet on.
|Redskins (21%)||Vikings (79%)||Vikings by 5|
|Seahawks (64%)||Falcons (36%)||Seahawks by 4|
|Chargers (42%)||Bears (58%)||Bears by 6|
|Giants (40%)||Lions (60%)||Lions by 6|
|Jets (53%)||Jaguars (47%)||Jets by 3|
|Bengals (12%)||Rams (88%)||Rams by 12|
|Buccaneers (30%)||Titans (70%)||Titans by 5|
|Eagles (40%)||Bills (60%)||Bills by 6|
|Broncos (28%)||Colts (72%)||Colts by 8|
|Cardinals (15%)||Saints (85%)||Saints by 14|
|Panthers (35%)||49ers (65%)||49ers by 7|
|Raiders (34%)||Texans (66%)||Texans by 5|
|Browns (19%)||Patriots (81%)||Patriots by 13|
|Packers (53%)||Chiefs (47%)||Packers by 8|
|Dolphins (24%)||Steelers (76%)||Steelers by 11|
Here Are Our Recommended Bets for Week 8
Against the Spread
Seahawks (-3.5) @ Falcons – (Our AI system predicts the Seahawks to win by 4) – Normally I wouldn’t recommend a game where the AI predicts a near identical margin of victory when compared to the line. But Vegas has been all over the place with this game due to Matt Ryan’s injury status. Regardless of whether Ryan plays or not, the Seahawks will win (even if he is healthy enough to play). Russell Wilson and company will turn things around when they go against the second-worst scoring defense. The Falcons are 1-6 ATS this season. That’s the worst in the NFL.
Packers (-5.5) @ Chiefs – (Our AI system predicts the Packers to win by 8) – This is the third week in a row I’m riding the Packers train. Last week they easily covered the 6.5 points they were favored by. Side note: Aaron Rodgers arguably had one of the best games of his career (25 completions on 31 attempts, 429 yards, 5 touchdowns, and a 158.3 QBR). It’s a shame that Patrick Mahomes is out with a dislocated knee otherwise this would’ve easily been one of the games of the season. BUT, Mahomes is out and it is unlikely he will play Sunday (even though Andy Reid won’t definitively rule him out). So, it’s Matt Moore vs. Green Bay’s scary defense and on the other side it’s Aaron Rodgers vs. Chiefs defense (they’ve given up the third most yards in the AFC this year trailing only the Dolphins and Bengals). It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see the clear winner here. Rodgers is going to shine again this week and the Chiefs are going to live in perpetual turmoil until their savior returns.
Redskins @ Vikings (-16.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Vikings to win by 5) – As of right now, the Vikings are tied for the largest point-spread favorite for any Thursday night NFL game ever. Both Cousins and Keenum will have something to prove as they each face off against their former team. After last week’s win against Detroit, Cousins became the first QB in NFL history to throw for at least 300 yards and have a passer rating of 135 or better in three consecutive games. Keenum, meanwhile, has thrown for 280 combined yards in his last three games. However, I think the X-factor here is Dalvin Cook. Washington has a 27th ranked run defense and Dalvin Cook is arguably the leads best rusher this season. I expect Cook to feast against the Redskin’s defense and for the Vikings to cruise to an easy victory.
Jets @ Jaguars (-4.5) – (Our AI system predicts the Jets to win by 3) – Sometimes miracles happen even if you don’t think they will. All stats point to betting against the Jets, but our AI says otherwise. They’re 2-13 (straight up) in their past 15 road games or 5-9-1 (ATS). On top of that, Sam Darnold just came off one of the worst QB performances in Jet’s history. As a silver lining (depending on how much you value stats), the Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in October games. Our AI has Jets by 3 and we’re sticking to the system, for better or worse.