Mets vs. Red Sox MLB Pick – July 27, 2020

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It was a nice way to kick off the MLB season last week as I went 2-1 with my Friday picks and will carry a one-unit profit into this week’s action.

Kyle Hendricks got us started on an exceptional note on Friday, turning in a complete-game shutout against the Brewers and willing his club to a 3-0 season-opening victory in the process.

We notched another unit’s-worth profit when the Tigers and Reds went under the 9-run total, albeit by the slimmest of margins. The Tigers scored just once while being dominated by Sonny Gray, but Matt Boyd struggled and the Reds posted seven runs of their own. Nonetheless, the 7-1 final went under the total.

Later in the evening we have a unit back as I had the D-backs as +134 road dogs in San Diego. It was a close game for a while, but Eric Hosmer broke it open with a bases-clearing double off Madison Bumgarner the Padres didn’t look back in a 7-2 win.

I’ll take the 2-1 night and the one-unit profit and look to do some more damage this week!

Season Record: 2-1

Units: +1.00

Now let’s take a look at this free MLB pick featuring the Mets vs. Red Sox from Boston!

Mets vs. Red Sox Betting Odds

  • Mets (-115)
  • Red Sox (+105)
  • Mets -1.5 (+125)
  • Red Sox +1.5 (-145)
  • Over 11.5 (-110)
  • Under 11.5 (-110)

Mets vs. Red Sox MLB Pick Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Wacha (NYM) vs. Josh Osich (BOS)

Originally a depth starter or bullpen swingman, Wacha is all the sudden an important piece to the Mets’ rotation after the injuries to Noah Syndergaard and now Marcus Stroman.

As a result, he’ll get the ball to make his Mets debut against the Red Sox after a seven-season stint with the St. Louis Cardinals.

The first three of those season when swimmingly for the big right-hander as Wacha looked the part of a future rotation anchor, posting an ERA no higher than 3.38 from 2013-2015.

Injuries and inconsistency took over from there, however, as he maxed out at 165.2 innings from 2016-2019 while posting an ERA of 4.13 or worse in three of those four seasons. He look like he might bounce back with a tidy 3.20 ERA in the first 84.1 innings of the 2018 season – but that’s all he would throw before posting a 4.76 ERA/5.61 FIP a season ago.

It’s not the easiest of matchups to be sure, but Wacha will look to begin a new era on the right note in this one tonight.

The Red Sox will open this one with left-hander Josh Osich tonight, but the reliever is likely to throw just an inning or two with right-hander Zack Godley to follow after being signed by Boston following his release from the Tigers.

For his part, Osich hasn’t found his footing in the big leagues to this point as he spent the 2019 season with the White Sox and posted a 4.66 ERA/4.96 FIP and is the owner of a career 4.86 ERA/5.11 FIP in 218 big-league appearances.

He pitched a scoreless inning against the Orioles over the weekend to kick off his Red Sox tenure.

Godley is in search of a career renaissance as he beings his Red Sox career tonight against the Mets.

Godley impressed in his first full shot in the D-backs’ rotation during the 2017 season as he posted a 3.37 ERA/3.41 FIP with a 9.58 K/9 clip across 155 innings. He then went on to post a 4.74 ERA in 32 starts the following season, but his 3.82 FIP and 3.96 xFIP suggested he was much better than his surface ERA.

However, Godley posted a 5.97 ERA/5.20 FIP between the D-backs and Blue Jays last season before originally catching on with the Tigers this winter.

Godley has an opportunity to impress and become a part of an injury-depleted Red Sox rotation, but he’ll need to be better than he was a season ago.

Offense

After a season in which they finished the league’s top 10 in wOBA, the Mets’ offense got off to a sluggish start against the Braves over the weekend.

The club received a clutch homer from Yoenis Cespedes in the season opener to secure a 1-0 win, but that was the only homer the club would hit through the first three games of the season while they were also held to just one run in yesterday’s 14-1 drubbing.

That said, we are, of course, dealing with tiny sample sizes and the Mets are largely returning the same offense that performed well last season, plus Cespedes who will now get everyday playing time with the addition of the universal designated hitter.

They have plenty of thump in the likes of Pete Alonso, Cespedes, Michael Conforto and J.D. Davis while bats such as Brandon Nimmo and Amed Rosario bring complimentary skill sets to the table.

I would expect a bounce back for the Mets’ offense in this series.

The Red Sox feasted on Orioles pitching in a 13-2 win to open up their season last Friday, the Red Sox offense produced just six runs over the final two games and ended up losing their season-opening series to the lowly O’s.

While the Red Sox rotation is a shell of its former self, the offense is expected to remain potent despite the loss of Mookie Betts in the offseason trade to the Dodgers.

J.D. Martinez, Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts and Andrew Benintendi should anchor the group while youngster Alex Verdugo – the main returning piece in the Betts deal – has plenty of potential moving forward.

Still, that group was held in check over the final two games of their weekend set with the O’s, who are expected to sport one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball this season.

There’s plenty left to prove for an offense that needs to produce to give this team any shot at a postseason appearance in 2020.

Bullpen

The Mets’ bullpen did a fine job after Jacob deGrom to open the season on Friday, however Sunday’s disaster has them sitting with a 6.00 ERA through 15 innings of work.

It’s not an ideal start for a Mets ‘pen that ranked 26th with a 4.99 ERA a season ago, a year that saw once-historic closer Edwin Diaz struggle mightily following a blockbuster offseason deal with the Mariners.

The team addressed that need with the offseason signing of former crosstown rival Dellin Betances while Jeurys Familia, Justin Wilson and Seth Lugo were built to bridge the gap to Diaz.

Wilson, Lugo, Betances and Familia weren’t part of the Sunday shellacking, but Diaz allowed a homer in his outing on Saturday.

If the Mets are to make up for the losses of Syndergaard and Stroman in the rotation, the bullpen needs to be very good to give this club a chance.

The Red Sox bullpen wasn’t great on the surface with a 17th-ranked 4.40 ERA, but their 4.14 FIP ranked eighth and their 5.6 fWAR ranked fifth, so the group was much better than their ERA showed last season.

Brandon Workman has emerged as a dominant back-of-the-bullpen piece last season with a stout 1.88 ERA/2.46 FIP to go along with a big-time 13.06 K/9 and the likes of Matt Barnes, Ryan Brasier and Heath Hembree will be looked to get Workman the ball with save opportunities in hand this season.

Like with the Mets, the Red Sox are going to need a big effort from their bullpen to make up for injuries to their paper-thin rotation.

Conclusion

Both teams should be able to produce offensively this season.

We don’t quite know what to expect from any of Wacha, Osich and Godley as the starters/openers/piggy back pitchers for this matchup, either.

That said, I’m looking at a massive 11.5 run total and a couple of capable bullpens who should get much of this game.

For the Red Sox, that is a good thing. They are largely without reliability in a severely watered-down rotation, and having their bullpen pitch much of this game could be helpful.

While Diaz allowed a homer over the weekend, the above mentioned quarter of Wilson, Lugo, Betances and Familia pitched fine. That group is deep and plenty capable and it would not be surprising to see the Mets post far better results from their bullpen this season.

The Mets’ offense has began the season ice cold while the Red Sox offense was handled over the final two games of their series with Baltimore.

Despite plenty of unknowns to begin this game on the mound, I will look for both bullpens to capably take over and keep this one under the large total.

The Bet
UNDER 11.5
-110
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Brenton Kemp / Author

Brenton is a lifelong sports fan who resides in Ontario, Canada. Brenton is a fan of most all sports but specializes in hockey, baseball, football, basketball, and golf. He’s a fierce researcher with a strong appetite to deliver accurate and relevant facts that in turn have led to past success with picks and DFS advice across the board. Brenton’s biggest goal is to deliver readers with the picks and advice that can build their bankroll. He takes great pride in his success and loves nothing more than to share that success for the benefit of everyone involved.