Rakuten Monkeys vs Fubon Guardians Pick – CPBL April 29, 2020

I just finished watching today’s game between the Rakuten Monkeys and the Fubon Guardians and what a tremendous pitching performance it was from Monkeys starter Justin Nicolino. A comebacker late in the 8th that stung Justin on the wrist likely kept him from pitching a complete game.

Allowing only 2 hits on the night with both coming in the 4th inning, Nicolino had his good stuff on Tuesday. I could see him becoming the Rakuten Monkeys’ #1 starter very soon.

The Guardians weren’t really a bad bet on the moneyline at (+225) as the Monkeys only won the game by a score of 3-0. We picked the run line (-1.5) for the first place Monkeys, though, and it hit but only for (-175).

The over was at 10.5. We, of course, didn’t come close there so no profit for us on this game but we are 7-3 now and with two games tomorrow, we can build on this record as well as our return on investment significantly.

The Guardians had a starting pitcher, Bryan Woodall, penciled in on the official website for today’s game and he has been atrocious this season.

I thought the Monkeys would put up 10 runs on their own. It was Taiwanese pitcher Wu Duo who got the start, though, and he slung it fairly well giving up 2 runs over 5 ⅔.

The most frightening bats in Taiwan had 12 hits on the night but only one man finished the day with an RBI next to his name in the box score.

  • Second baseman Guo Yanwen went 2-4 and hit his second home run of the season in the 6th inning.
  • 3rd baseman, Lin Li, is hitting .485 with 15 runs scored in 10 games.
  • 1st baseman, Zhu Yuxian, has a league-leading 8 home runs to go along with a .487 batting average.

Opposing pitchers can only hope to slow this lineup down.

Let’s take a look at the pitching matchup as well as the betting lines. Then, we can make our predictions for tomorrow’s game between the Rakuten Monkeys and the Fubon Guardians.

BetOnline.AG has the odds for us. Let’s get after it!

Monkeys vs Guardians Betting Odds and Predictions

Run Line

  • Monkeys -2.5 (-110)
  • Guardians +2.5 (-110)
Money Line

  • Monkeys (-300)
  • Guardians (+220)
Run Total

  • Over 9.5 (-110)
  • Under 9.5 (-110)

Do you want to know something that might surprise you about the CPBL? Each team has a new manager and only one of them has experience leading a team in the CPBL.

Fubon Guardians manager Hong I-Chung has 884 regular season games under his belt and had been with the Rakuten Monkeys since 2004.

7 Taiwan World Series Titles and 15 years later the Fubon Guardians signed I-Chung 240,000.00 USD to be their manager. This was double the Monkeys’ offer. You have to imagine he was getting bored.

The Rakuten Monkeys promoted within and named hitting coach Tseng Hao-Ju their new manager. Anytime these two teams face off, it will be a battle of teacher and pupil.

I’m not sure if the winningest manager of all-time in the CPBL can help his team bridge the massive gap in talent level between these two rosters.

The Monkeys pitching is beginning to catch up with their bats and that is pretty much lights out for the rest of the league.

Taking the mound for the home Fubon Guardians will be Chen Shih-Peng. The young man is only 22-years-old and currently 1-0 on the year with two starts. 13 hits and 5 walks given up over 11 innings pitched is not great, though.

His ERA currently sits at 3.97 with a WHIP of 1.59. The season is, of course, very young but his numbers are quite similar to last year’s (3.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP).

The young lefty will be facing off with another southpaw, the Rakuten Monkeys’ Ryan Carpenter. The 30-year-old from Glendale, Arizona has had a decent genesis to his CPBL career with the Rakuten Monkeys.

Ryan Carpenter

Ryan got a nice little head start to the 2020 CPBL regular season with 3 starts with the minor league Rakuten Monkeys II. Over 15 innings pitched, he allowed just 3 earned runs while striking out 20.

He has now started two games in the big league and his ERA over 12 ⅔ innings pitched is 3.55 with a nice little WHIP of 1.03. In 25 total innings pitched and 114 batters faced at the two levels this season, Ryan has only walked 3 of them! I love that level of control.

The Monkeys are currently in first place with a record of 8-2 winning by an average score of 8-6. Conversely, the Guardians are in last place with a record of 4-7 by an average score of 5-6.

Both pitchers have looked good but getting even money on these two teams combining for only 10 runs sounds like a good bet to me. The two teams have reached this run total 69% of the time. Neither pitcher is an ace so I like the value we are getting here.

The moneyline of (-300) for the Monkeys is ridiculous. I know this is first place vs last place but that’s just too much juice to pay for a baseball game.

The run line of 2.5, though, is not bad because we can get it at nearly even money. Betting yesterday’s run line of (-1.5) at (-175) wasn’t a very good value pick but thankfully, it hit for us.

Let’s go with the run line of (-2.5) for the Monkeys and the over 9.5 combined runs scored. I think this one will be 9-3 but we shall see!

My Picks
OVER 9.5

In Conclusion

Teacher vs pupil again!

It’s going to be very interesting to see how this matchup plays out as the season moves along.

The Fubon Guardians now have the man widely considered to be the best manager of all-time in the CPBL. They are currently in last place, though, and it is going to be a hard dig getting to the top of the league.

The Chinatrust Brothers have only allowed 37 runs through their first 10 games while the Rakuten Monkeys have scored 82 over 10.

The Uni Lions have the worst pitching in the CPBL allowing 8 runs/game but play with a great deal of heart and are almost at .500 with a record of 5-6.

Tomorrow, I like Rakuten to do their thing. Monkey bats have been cool now for three straight games. The team has scored just 15 runs over that span.

The team, yes team, was batting .350 through their first 7 games while the rest of the league couldn’t do better than .270. I’m going to ride the Monkey wagon until the team shows weakness.

Get your bets in now, guys!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.