Rain rain, go away!
It was a wet end to the Winter here on the east coast of the United States. It’s been a wet Spring.
I’m glad they didn’t cancel Wednesday’s game between the Fubon Guardians and the Rakuten Monkeys.
We took the Mike Loree-led Fubon Guardians to win by 2 or more runs against the best team in the league.
An intense pitching duel between Justin Nicolino and Mike Loree! @FubonGuardians scores 4 against the Monkeys bullpen in the 7th and 8th innings to take their 3rd win in a row!
W: Mike Loree (2-0)
L: Su Chun-Chang (蘇俊璋) (1-1)
S: Chen Hung-Wen (陳鴻文) (5)#CPBL pic.twitter.com/bqiAqCzuat— CPBL 中華職棒 (@CPBL) May 27, 2020
They did it and it was because of the weak Rakuten bullpen. Called that too
(+170) is a nice win for a baseball bet!
We have probably broken down and bet on more games between the Uni Lions and the Rakuten Monkeys more than any other. Actually, I’m positive about this without even looking.
One team has the best hitting and the other has the worst pitching.
The Guardians and Brothers are more evenly matched.
Let’s look at the betting odds provided by Bovada.LV and make our predictions for the matchup between the Uni Lions and the first place Rakuten Monkeys.
Rakuten Monkeys @ Uni Lions Betting Odds
Taking the mound for the Rakuten Monkeys is 34-year-old Wang Yi-Cheng.
The left-hander has pitched in the CPBL for going on 8 years now.
He has been with the Monkeys since his rookie season and has a career ERA of 4.88.
His ERA in 2020 is pretty solid at an even 4.00.
When you pitch for the Rakuten Monkeys who score close to 9 runs per ball game, that ERA is good enough to get you to an impressive 4-1 record.
We do know from capping the Uni Lions in the past that three of their top four hitters are left-handed batters who prefer to prey upon right-handed pitching.
He sure has and he has performed beautifully.
In 2 starts against the Lions, he threw 7 full innings each outing allowing 4 hits and striking out 6 in each game. In one of the starts, he didn’t allow a run and in the other, only two runners crossed home plate.
He recently made his sole relief appearance of the season on the 24th of this month against the Uni Lions and they smacked him around for 3 runs in just 1 inning pitched.
I guess that was some revenge for what he had been able to do to them so far this year.
I believe Wang will throw a nice game.
Taking the bump for the underdog Uni Lions will be 38-year-old right-hander, Josh Roenicke.
This is Josh’s third season in the CPBL and with the Lions.
He hasn’t quite found his form this year but over his first 44 starts, he was able to keep his ERA below 3.50.
Josh got a late start to the season after doing his 14-day quarantine.
He has just 14 innings pitched on the year in 2 starts and 2 relief appearances.
25 hits, 4 of which were homers and 17 earned runs later, Roenicke is looking at an ERA in the double digits and a WHIP approaching 2.00.
This will be his first time pitching against the defending Taiwan Series Champion Rakuten Monkeys.
He has yet to put together a quality outing against either the Chinatrust Brothers or the Fubon Guardians.
He has faced each team in relief as well as in a starting role.
I can’t get behind the guy if he is 4/4 with bad appearances this year.
The Monkeys pitcher is 2/2 in starts against the Lions too?!
I think this is a run line play.
I know we faded the bullpen of the Monkeys earlier this week for the win but that was assuming they didn’t light up Guardians starter Mike Loree, which they didn’t.
Roenicke has been unsuccessful every time he has tried. Now, he is trying to succeed against the best hitting team with one of their most effective pitchers on the mound.
No.
The betting value is on the run line.
If you’re going to gamble, then get a reward.
Take the Monkeys to win on the run line and it pays 50% more cash than the moneyline.
If the team averaged 5 runs/game, that 1 run is a lot!
With an offensive juggernaut like the Rakuten Monkeys playing in a league with a known juiced ball, the 1.5 run line isn’t that much more than 0.5.
In Conclusion
Tomorrow may be the day that Lions veteran starter Josh Roenicke gets his groove back.
Then again, he could just repeat the recent history we have seen from him this season and give up 6 runs over the first few innings.
He is only averaging just over 4 innings of work per start.
I used to try and be the guy who could magically guess when a losing streak or funk would end and bet that guy…
One pitcher has had zero success in 2020.
The other pitcher has been mostly successful this year and pitched the best vs the Lions.
Add on that the Lions have the worst pitching, Rakuten has some of the best pitching, and easily the strongest bats.
Therefore you get a bet for the boys in red.
