Uni Lions vs Chinatrust Brothers Pick – CPBL May 6, 2020

Hey, this is the only CPBL game for the second straight day.

Looking at the regular-season schedule, the league has one week per month that they have just one game on Wednesdays.

Today, the Chinatrust Brothers hosted the Uni Lions in the first game of two before they each take the day off on Thursday to prepare for 3-game series against the Guardians and Monkeys.

The moneyline was off, in my opinion, we took it, and it happened to work out in our favor. We must remember that in handicapping and betting, our job is to put our money in the best position.

Sometimes it works out and sometimes it doesn’t. There was some recency bias in that line, I believe.

Going into today’s game, Lions starter Donn Roach had the worst ERA and WHIP of any pitcher in the CPBL who had thrown more than 12 total innings.

They somehow let the 30-year-old vegas native pitch 4 total innings as he gave up 8 runs, 7 of which were earned to bring his ERA north of 10.00 and WHIP above 2.00. I think Donn needs some R and R and/or a trip down to the minors.

Huang En-Sih gave up a run in the top of the first inning and 2 in the 6th before he was pulled with 2 outs. So 5 ⅔ innings pitched and he gave up 3 earned for his first win of the season.

Huang has been as consistent as any pitcher in the CPBL thus far in 2020.

  • 3 starts
  • 3 earned runs allowed each game
  • 5, 5 ⅔, and 6 innings pitched in each outing
  • 1 home run allowed in each outing

We will keep an eye out the next time this young man takes the mound. As a bettor and handicapper, we have to value, zoom in, and take advantage of consistency.

The run line would have hit for us but there was really no value there. Tomorrow’s moneyline slightly favors the Brothers but we will see in a few which way to go.

The Brothers once again didn’t hit any home runs. They are the base hittingest team I have ever seen. 14 dingers in 16 games played is well below the league average.

The Uni Lions, in fact, have more than doubled the Brothers’ total.

We are off to a pretty good start to the season. I didn’t know anything about the CPBL before the US started postponing sports seasons.

Fortunately for us, though, there are only 4 teams in which to familiarize ourselves with. We have given you guys 15 bets so far this season in the CPBL and won 10 of them.

If we bet 100.00 per wager, we are up 366.00 bucks with a return on investment of 21.5%. I would obviously be thrilled to keep the same winning percentage and ROI but it isn’t likely. Not gonna stop us from trying, though!

BetOnline.AG has the betting odds for tomorrow’s game. Let’s break down the pitching matchup and make our predictions.

Lions vs Brothers Betting Odds and Predictions

Run Line

  • Lions +1.5 (-170)
  • Brothers -1.5 (+140)
Money Line

  • Lions (-110)
  • Brothers (-120)
Run Total

  • Over 14.5 (-120)
  • Under 14.5 (-110)

At first glance of these odds, I see where we can gain a dollar or (+100 worth) by taking the Brothers’ run line of (-1.5). On the surface, that looks pretty good.

Normally, the run line would need to be (-2.5) to see a dollar gain in the betting odds. The over/under is probably dead on so no edge there.

The over was the bet to make in the first couple weeks of the CPBL regular season but now it looks like the sportsbooks have adjusted accordingly. I remember the good ole days of 8.5 run totals.

The two starting pitchers taking the mound on Wednesday have not been the most effective hurlers for either club, though.

Pan Wei Lun will start for the visiting Unity Lions. The right-hander was born way back in March of 1982. So was I! And I’m old. He’s a professional athlete so that makes him even older.

It’s one thing for me to lose 30 seconds on my 5k every year I age but baseball is a game of centimeters.

Wei Lun is as loyal as they come, though. He has been in the Chinese Taipei Professional Baseball League since 2003 and has never left the Uni Lions.

His ERA never made its way north of 2.80 in his first 6 years in the league but that level of dominance over the course of 20 starts a season is a thing of the past.

Last season, he gave up 157 hits in 140 innings pitched and finished the season with an ERA of 5.10. His effectiveness has continued to wane in 2020.

In 3 starts and only 11 innings pitched, he has faced over 61 batters. That’s not really very good. The aging former superstar has thrown as many strikeouts as home runs allowed with 7.

He is giving up over 2 hits per inning this year with an ERA over 13.00 and a WHIP north of 2.00. In his first start, he gave up 4 homers in just 5 innings pitched.

Wei Lun’s second outing was even worse when he tattooed for 8 earned in just over 1 inning. His last appearance on April 30th wasn’t too bad, though.

5 innings and just 3 earned runs allowed was, of course, his best start of the young season. That was on 9 days rest, though, not to mention he only threw 49 pitches in his previous start.

We mentioned a second ago that the Brother Elephants have struggled to go deep all season but they are hitting over .310 as a team in the season.

Wei Lun has allowed 22 hits in just over 11 innings pitched. I see the Bro’s slapping singles and doubles left and right, pun intended. They should get him out of there early and get to work on the Lions’ bullpen by the 4th or 5th inning.

Opposing the old man is Liao Yi-Chung. Liao is also a right-hander but 13 years the Lions’ hurler’s junior.

He started 13 games for Chinatrust in his rookie year last season with no relief appearances and finished the year with a record of 3-5.

Liao wrapped up 2019 with an ERA of 4.36 and a decent WHIP of 1.36. This year-2 starts, 1 relief appearance, WHIP 1.60, ERA 7.20. He has split time with the minor league team last year and this season.

The Uni Lions love the long ball. Let’s see how many home runs he has allowed in his career.

364 batters faced over the past two seasons and only 10 home runs allowed. Those are just his numbers for the major league. That is very good and a stark contrast from Lions’ starter Wei Lun.

The Brothers are a half of a game up on the Lions right now for second place. I see them adding a game to that lead tomorrow.

If the Lions’ 38-year-old was getting more rest than the standard 5 days, I would put more faith in him but he has struggled quite a bit.

The Brothers’ batting average is .40 higher than the Lions and the team ERA is a run and a half lower. The Lions starter has an ERA almost double that of the Brothers’.

The moneyline bet of Brothers (-130) is the safe play here but I can’t help myself. I love the dollar gain we get with the (-1.5) run line.

My Picks
CHINATRUST BROTHERS -1.5
+140

In Conclusion

Just one game tomorrow, fellas!

It doesn’t appear we will see a pitcher’s duel either. I do worry a bit about Lions starter Pan Wei Lun finding his rhythm. He did improve on his first two starts in his last outing but he couldn’t have done much worse.

I don’t like betting on a player or team to break out of a slump. I wish I could predict these things but it’s nothing more than arrogance.

We make our decisions based on what these players and teams have done so far. Could tomorrow be the day that the Brothers hit 3 or 4 long balls.

They are averaging less than 1 per game but the opposing starter has given up 7 in just 11 innings.

Get your bets in now, guys, and enjoy the game if you up early tomorrow and have the time!

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.