Baylor Bears at Texas Longhorns – NCAAM February 2

No. 2 Baylor (16-0, 8-0) at No. 6 Texas (11-3, 5-2)

  • Time: 4PM PST | 6PM CST | 7PM EST
  • Location: Frank Erwin Center, Austin, TX
  • TV: ESPN

Opening Tip

The Bears are one of the last three remaining undefeated teams along with Gonzaga and Drake. Baylor is 9-1 in it’s last 10 games vs. the Longhorns and they are 18-8 vs. Texas since ending a 24-game losing steak to the ‘Horns back in 2009. Two low scoring games last season as Baylor won at Texas, 59-44, and took a 52-45 win in Austin.

Texas has lost two out of it’s last three, but the Longhorns have been victorious in seven of their last nine games. This is the first matchup in Austin between two Top-6 teams since 2003 when No. 6 Texas defeated Oklahoma, 67-61.

COVID Update

The Bears haven’t been paused since Dec. 12, but they did miss a Jan. 11 game at West Virginia due to a COVID issues within the Mountaineers program.

In last Tuesday’s loss to Oklahoma, Texas only had eight scholarship players and two walk-ons available and no Shaka Smart. This past Sunday, all 11 players and coach Smart were finally back together as the Longhorns prepared for Baylor after cancellation of their game at Kentucky due to COVID issues in the Wildcats’ program. The Longhorns have had three of their last four games postponed or cancelled.

Vs. The Spread

Baylor:

  • The Bears are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games against the Longhorns
  • The Bears are 5-1 in their last six games on the road at Texas
  • The total has gone OVER in four of Baylor’s last five games

Texas:

  • The OVER has been the play in the Longhorns’ last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of the last 20 Texas-Baylor matchups
  • The ‘Horns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 outings

Last Time Out

The Bears had a 19-5 run out of halftime to take a 66-45 lead over Auburn midway through the second half as Baylor won it’s 16th game, 84-72, over the stubborn Tigers. Adam Flagler led four Bears in double figures with 19 points as Jared Butler canned 16 and MaCio Teague netted 15. Former Auburn Tiger Davion Mitchell had 13 points and seven assists.

Texas fell to Oklahoma, 80-79 last Tuesday in Austin as we noted the short roster and the absence of coach Shaka Smart above. The Longhorns rallied from 11-down to force the last game drama as they played without starters Courtney Ramey and Jericho Sims and also sub Brock Cunningham. Kai Jones had 15 to lead Texas as the Longhorns were able to hang around due to taking advantage of 13 missed Sooners free throws.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Baylor -5 (-110) -215 O 144.5 (-110)
Texas +5 (-110) +185 U 144.5 (-110)

Bears Stat Pack

  • Scott Drew is getting plenty of production off the bench from as Matthew Mayer, Adam Flagler and LJ Cryer form their own three-point arsenalMayer (.447), Flagler (.443), Cryer (.432) have combined to shoot 44.1 percent from behind the arc (60-of-136) and averaged 3.8 made 3-pointers per game.
  • Baylor is 68-5 in it’s last 73 games when leading at halftime.
  • Jared Butler is 19-of-40 from the floor with 8 threes in his past three games as he has averaged 17 points per game in those three.

Bears Grease Board

When Baylor takes the floor, guarding the 3-ball is the biggest concern with the Baylor offense. Five Bears shoot at least 43.4 percent or better as the team itself nets 43.4 percent of it’s long balls. Davion Mitchell makes 47.2 percent of his triples while Jared Butler checks in at a 45.2 percent clip. Texas brings a 3-point defense to the table that has only allowed 28.4 percent from three; however three of their last four opponents have shot between 36-37 percent. The catalyst of the Bears’ defense is being able to turn opponents over an average of 18.6 time per night. Matt Coleman and Courtney Ramey give Texas a judicious backcourt as the Longhorns only post 13.1 miscues per outing.

Longhorns Stat Pack

  • Over Texas’ first 14 games, the Longhorns are averaging 76.4 points while making 45.3 percent of their shots and shooting 70.5 percent from the line. The ‘Horns are 18th in the country in adjusted field goal efficiency per KenPom analytics.
  • The Longhorns have out rebounded 10 of their first 14 opponents and have an 8-2 record in those games.
  • Through his first 13 games, Courtney Ramey ranks second on the team in scoring at 13.9 points per games well as second in assists at 3.9 assists per game.

Longhorns Grease Board

As a fourth year point guard Matt Coleman give Texas what it needs in being able to win a game of this caliber against arguably the nation’s top team.

Coleman leads Texas in the following categories:
  • 4.1 assists per game
  • 33.9 minutes
  • 17 steals
  • Third in scoring at 13.1 ppg

Defending Coleman and Ramey will be an interesting matchup for the Bears as it feels like Mitchell, the Bears’ defensive stopper, might draw Coleman with Butler on Ramey. Andrew Jones (14.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg) leads the Longhorns in scoring as well as made 3-pointers with 27.

Winner: Baylor (-5) 77, Texas 69
Over-Under: Take OVER 144.5

The Bets
Baylor Bears -5
-110
OVER 144.5
-110
Sub Categories:
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.