gravatar

Georgetown vs. Cincinnati Pick NCAA – Feb 15th

Who loves ya, baby?  No better way to cap off a romantic Valentine’s Day than with a nice, tidy 3-0 ATS in college and NBA hoops.  The NBA will be off until Tuesday with All-Star festivities but college basketball will be in full effect this weekend.  All 25 Top 25 teams will be in action before Sunday ends, including a rare Friday night Big East treat.

Be sure to check back in on the site tomorrow and Sunday for a whole battery of college hoops picks, plus an NBA All-Star Game preview.  But in the meantime, let’s break down a rare Friday night big time college hoops matchup.

Georgetown Hoyas at Cincinnati Bearcats -4.5 (Total: 120.5)

Georgetown has been one of the hottest teams in college basketball and seemingly one of the only major conference teams to avoid the “what the hell happened” loss that has befallen every team in the Top Ten with the exception of Gonzaga.  Yet they have only climbed to #15 in the polls and seem like one of the most undervalued teams in the country.  They are even pretty sizable underdogs tonight in Cincinnati, despite having beaten Marquette and Louisville and blown out Notre Dame in South Bend in the last three weeks.

Cincinnati has had its share of struggles lately, losing three of their last six games including losses to Providence and to Pitt at home by ten.  They have shown flashes of excellence this season in their overtime win over Marquette and the two-point road loss to Syracuse, but have yet to really lay it to a good team in conference play.  Yet, that’s what tonight’s line suggests they need to do to cover against Georgetown.  I am not seeing it.

Otto Porter and Sean Kilpatrick is one of the best matchups you’ll see all season, very under the radar.  I like both to play well tonight, but I like the overall team defense and ball-security of Georgetown even on the road.  Both teams hold opponents to less than 38% shooting from the floor, but Georgetown shoots it at a 46% clip while Cincinnati struggles offensively at 41.4%.

Cincinnati averages more points, but that is a function of tempo more than efficiency.  In overall efficiency differential, Georgetown is one of the best teams in the country.  It is just a few of the 48-46 type games that turn off casual fans, and perhaps swing lines.

I know it has been in poor fashion taking road teams in conference games, but five points is a lot to cover in a game where possessions will be at a premium.  I like Georgetown to cover and would be interested to see what I can get on the money-line, as they are a pretty good value play tonight.

Free Pick:  Georgetown Hoyas +4.5