Marlins vs. Mets Pick MLB – July 5th

We kept the good times rolling last night with our sixth winner in seven plays, and another in relatively easy fashion.  I surmised the Mets might just take care of the run total all by themselves, and they did in an 8-6 victory that nearly doubled the total line for the game.  Hopefully we can keep this sweet momentum rolling into the All Star Break after this weekend.

There are a couple nice matchups this week in the National League highlighted by the Cards and Pirates jockeying to stay within shouting distance of the Cubs, and the Mets and Marlins doing the same with a little more to gain as they pursuit the Nationals.

Let’s see if we can keep the good times rolling this week.

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Today’s Free Pick:

Miami Marlins at New York Mets (Total: 8)

Bruce Chen (4-3, 5.11 ERA) vs. Steven Matz (7-3, 3.40 ERA)

The Mets scored a bucket of runs last night and will attempt to do the same thing tonight against a pitcher with a plus-five ERA.  It seems likely that the bats will stay sizzling in Queens tonight and that the Mets are well poised for a sixth straight victory.

Of course, that supposed that Steven Matz and his bone spur issue is no big deal and that Matz will be sharp tonight.  I am willing to wager he will be.  My simple logic is this: there is no way in hell that the Mets put him out there if he isn’t completely ready to go and pitch well.  Why risk it?  And assuming he IS good to go, he will be hoping to reverse a bad short history against the Fish.  He is 0-1 with an 11.58 ERA in two starts against Miami.  Small sample size for sure, but the Fish do at least have some good history.

Chen has never faced the Mets, but he has faced a lot of other teams this season and the results have been pretty checkered.  I like the Mets to win tonight, and flirted with the runline value at +135 to +145.  It’s a good value if you think Matz will pitch well.

The safer play is the OVER 8.  The Mets are scoring truckloads of runs and Chen has allowed a bunch this season.  But I am going to play the hot hand tonight and roll the dice on a bounce back strong effort from Matz and the Mets bats to appropriately back him up.  That makes +145 way too juicy to ignore.  The Mets have won five in a row and I’ll take them to win number six with some room to spare.

Today’s Free Pick:  New York Mets RUNLINE (-1.5) +145