The NCAA Men’s Basketball season is in full swing, and gamblers are flooding the sportsbooks. Before you place your next wager, you need to review this list.
The 10 college hoops teams to avoid betting against the spread will have you thinking twice before you wager on your tried-and-true favorites. You may believe that a Top 10 team in the AP poll is a lock, but you’d be wrong.
Have a look at teams to avoid in NCAA Men’s Basketball.
1. Texas A&M
Texas A&M holds one of the most loyal fan bases in college athletics. Don’t fall into the trap of being blinded by love.
Although the Aggies have historically had a good program, they seem to have fallen on hard times. Texas A&M is a lackluster 7-7 with all but one win coming at home.
The team is also 2-6 in their conference play.
The Aggies are equally bad against all opponents ATS.
Texas A&M is a terrible 4-10 against the spread. Aggies have covered only 28.6% of the time, and I shouldn’t need to tell you how bad that is.
Whether you’re an alumnus or just a hardcore supporter of the SEC, Texas A&M needs to be left on the sidelines. Unless you’re betting against A&M, that seems to be a very profitable endeavor this season.
2. Iowa State
Iowa State has jumped out of the gate at a pathetic 2-8. The Cyclones have yet to win a Big 12 game and are 0-6 in conference play.
Iowa State has a better record ATS at 3-7, but 30% isn’t going to make anyone any money.
Meanwhile, their in-state rival, Iowa, is ranked 9th in the AP poll and swinging an impressive 67% against the spread.
Iowa State doesn’t offer much value at all for sports bettors.
However, if you can find a deal in critical matchups, you can expose the Cyclones by betting against them and giving up the points.
Five of Iowa State’s next eight opponents are ranked in the Top 25. If you can force yourself to lay the points, you can profit against the Cyclones.
Arizona has a long-standing tradition of excellence in collegiate basketball. They aren’t bad at all this year either.
The Wildcats are 12-3 so far and 6-3 in their conference games. The problem is they are blowing out weak opponents regularly; then they’ll squeak out a win by a small margin.
Arizona is a good basketball team that could just as easily win by 20+ or 3, depending on the night. This situation can be tricky for sports bettors, and the team’s 6-9 record ATS shows that.
It’s excellent for the sportsbooks; they love a good team that plays hot and cold. Still, it can make it difficult to set a favorable line.
When it comes to betting on college basketball in 2021, your best course of action is to steer clear of Arizona. Their 40% ATS will be a complete crapshoot for most gamblers.
They’re good enough to cover against better opponents but could get caught by lesser teams on off nights. For me, the problem lies in locating any value either way with Arizona against the spread.
TCU has plenty of talent. They’re coached well and are by no means a poor basketball team.
Unfortunately, their 9-5 record doesn’t stand out as impressive. Much of the reason behind their losses are due to the Horned Frogs sharing a division with six teams ranked in the Top 25.
Still, that’s only a small part of their 5-9 record against the spread. The 33.3% ATS should be enough to send even those bleeding purple (the school’s color) running to find another team.
That’s when it comes to the sportsbook; this young team may be good enough to crack the Top 25 in 2022.
LSU is another one of these good teams that can’t seem to cover a spread. They also join their SEC counterpart Texas A&M on this list but are a much more skilled line-up.
The LSU Tigers have a respectable 11-4 record and are 6-3 in their SEC play. However, the Tigers are a lackluster 6-9 against the spread.
Part of this comes from early-season hype surrounding LSU.
Many of the pundits had LSU as a favorite to win their conference.
When the tournament is played, and the dust settles, LSU may very well come out as the SEC Champion. Still, the team is only covering the spread in 40% of their games.
You can’t win money betting on them, and they’re too good to bet against. So, it’ll be best if you avoid LSU altogether.
Valparaiso has a rich legacy of busting brackets when it comes tournament time. The school has made only the one Cinderella run over the years, but it was a whopper.
2021 does not look to be one of those seasons. I remember the first time Valpo entered my sports consciousness.
The 1997-98 Valpo Crusaders rushed to a Sweet 16 appearance after three consecutive first-round exits.
There won’t be any deep run or even an appearance this season, though.
Valparaiso is 5-9 overall and 4-7-1 against the spread. The fact that they’re covering only 36% makes them a bad choice to cover.
Then again, you may have a hard time finding value betting against them, covering nearly 40% of their games against the spread.
7. Notre Dame
Notre Dame is one team I thoroughly enjoy betting against. This year’s men’s basketball team is a significant exception.
Notre Dame’s 5-8 record is in the bottom third of the ACC. So, there looks like good value giving points.
However, the Fighting Irish have the exact same record against the spread as they do heads up at 5-8.
The bottom line is, love them or hate them, stay away from Notre Dame when it comes to picking against the spread.
The ACC is stacked with incredible talent, and Notre Dame fits the bill. The problem will be deciding when the line makers have it wrong or when one of the powerhouse teams will dip for a night.
This isn’t the NBA, where it’s easier to see when a team is likely to have a rough night. None of the starters are taking rest days in the NCAA season.
8. Texas Tech
The Texas Tech Red Raiders have a fantastic basketball team. Usually, I’d chalk this belief on personal bias, but this year it’s true.
The Red Raiders are currently ranked 10th in the AP poll and have an impressive 11-5 record. They’re 4-4 in the Big 12, but with six of the 10 teams ranked in the Top 25, that’s a solid conference record.
The Big 12 is stacked with talent, and Texas Tech can hang with any of them.
Tech has lost some incredibly close games against ranked opponents.
They’ve also won a game against one of the best teams in the country. They’re a team that is capable of beating better teams on any given night.
This means tight lines for challenging games, and their 6-10 record ATS indicates it. Ride them in your NCAA Tournament bracket, but avoid them at the sportsbook.
The Memphis Tigers are another reliable basketball team that is breaking sports bettors against the spread. Memphis has been a traditional favorite for several years, and the team continues to churn out NBA talent.
Unfortunately, the team’s 9-5 start to the season isn’t what they had hoped for going into 2021. In fact, the Tigers are not only not covering; they’re getting beat outright by underdogs.
Currently, Memphis is 5-9 ATS, and their opponents are only going to get tougher. I wouldn’t count Memphis out, though.
The Tigers have veteran leadership that may quickly right the ship, and they may well go on a run. Still, their inability to cover scares me away from betting on them this season.
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Duke ruled the top of men’s college basketball for decades.
Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end. The Blue Devils are sitting at 6-5 on the season and can only hope for a push and an invite to the NIT.
The big problem is that Duke is over-hyped and sits at only 2-9 against the spread.4
So, you’ve got yet another team that is good enough to win games but can’t cover against the better teams.
On the other hand, you’ve got a team that isn’t good enough to cover against lesser opponents.
The 18% winning percentage ATS should be enough to load up against Duke and kill it against the spread. However, it’s still Duke, and they could crush it at any time.
College hoops are one of the most exciting avenues for sports bettors to get into the action. Keep these records against the spread in mind as you head off to the online sportsbooks.
Knowing the 10 college hoops teams to avoid betting against the spread may save your bankroll. You may be bold enough to try and exploit that weakness, which could spell a hefty payday for you.