10 Tips for Becoming a Better MLB Bettor

MLB Better Betting

Baseball offers a wealth of opportunities for the well-attuned sports bettor. Baseball differs from other sports like football or basketball because bettors don’t have a point spread clouding the water. That means you’ll only need to pick a winner to win the bet. Sadly, this is much easier said than done.

Betting the money line provides massive opportunities for MLB bettors. It all comes down to finding the most value.

Over the course of your gambling career, you’ll run across the run line that operates similar to a point spread. These wagers can be tricky enough that most savvy gamblers will stay away. Follow my 10 tips for becoming a better MLB bettor, and you’ll see your results in the sportsbook improve dramatically.

1. Put Your Effort into the Right Areas

Baseball has always been more of a statistics-centric sport than football or basketball. Many of us probably grew up on baseball cards and comparing previous seasons’ stats to spot trends on players going up or down.

Long before the internet was in everybody’s home and mobile devices seemed like a sci-fi dream, I would pour over the newspaper looking at all of the box scores and league leaders.

Things have certainly changed, and the advent of sabermetrics has put a different perspective on the way we evaluate talent.

Please Note:
Looking at a starting pitcher’s win/loss record is far less crucial than how they perform with hitters in position. For batters, on-base percentage is a much more critical stat than purely batting average.

Put your time in looking at the areas of the game that have the most impact, and you’ll become a better MLB bettor.

2. Pitchers and Hitters are Affected by the Weather

The weather is often entirely overlooked by the average MLB bettor. They assume that if Cleveland is better than the Rangers in a dome, they should be better in an open-air ballpark.

However, that’s not at all the case.
The weather may not affect every player on the field in the same way, but it could impact every position.Some pitchers can’t stand throwing in the cold; others quickly run out of juice when it’s blazing hot. That presents a key area for you to focus on and capitalize where other bettors miss opportunities.

You’re not going to have a slugger come out and say how much they despise batting in the cold; that would be bad for business.

But if you spend the time to look over players’ past performances in adverse conditions, you can learn everything you need.

The pitchers and top offensive performers are the most advantageous players to key in on relating to the weather. Start watching the weather, and you’ll enjoy better sports betting results.

3. Become Better at Bankroll Management

Bankroll management is critical to the success of nearly any gambler. Sports bettors can’t enjoy any measure of success without making money management an absolute priority.

The margins between making a profit and going bankrupt are extremely thin. If you don’t run your sports betting like a business, you’re all but guaranteed to fail.

So, set a solid budget and learn the basics of bankroll management. Putting in a small fraction of effort now will pay incredible dividends in the future. When you begin to make each wager a small percentage of your bankroll and set limits on how much you’re betting per week.

You’ll be in a more advantageous spot to stay in the game.

Much of sports betting success comes down to not going broke before you discover a profitable system.

4. Pay Attention to Trends

Baseball teams tend to be streaky. When a team is winning on a hot streak, they’re likely to continue that trend.

Once the train gets rolling in baseball, it’s hard to stop. Hitters often go on games long hitting streaks that can boost an entire team’s performance. When a team is hot offensively, they will take a load of stress off of the pitching staff. When the pitching staff is on fire, the offense can play more loosely to give them run support.

Due to the statistical nature of baseball, trends seem to be everywhere. Learn the difference between the trends that convert to wins and those that are nothing more than a fun byline on a box score.

5. Shade the Public

The number one reason for betting against the public is how bad the average sports bettor picks games. Most recreational gamblers are basing their wagers on little more than their gut.

They find huge favorites, the hometown team, or the most star power and bet heavily on the shiny selection. Rarely accounting for the competition or trends.

When they do start focusing on trends:
They look in all of the wrong areas. For example, a team in the middle of a seven-game winning streak may have played well above their usual against competition that is scraping the bottom of the division.

It’s also possible the recent competition has made a significant shift to their prospects getting more playing time after the trade deadline. In other words, they aren’t accounting for all of the information.

When you shade the public, you’re giving yourself a better shot at beating the sportsbook, but you must find suitable games to maximize your potential wins.

6. Shop the Sportsbooks for the Best Line

Another absolute vital piece of the puzzle for becoming a better MLB bettor is shopping the lines. Remember that every dollar you save is as good as a dollar you win.

I’m usually a pretty brand loyal consumer. Whenever I find something I like, I’ll stick with it to a fault. However, when it comes to sportsbooks, I’ll shop them all. It’s vital to make several accounts at the https://www.thesportsgeek.com/sportsbooks/ online sportsbooks. Then you’ll be able to shop for the best lines and maximize your profits to the fullest.

You may not be worried about saving a few bucks on a pair of shoes if you prefer one retailer over another. Still, if one sportsbook is giving you a more favorable line, it’s an overall better product you’re getting.

7. Look to the Early Rounds of the Playoffs

Your best bet for finding value betting during the playoffs will come early. By the time the ALCS or NLCS rolls around.

You’re going to have the betting public going crazy over the action.

That additional action can send the lines all over the place. This becomes most apparent during the World Series. There are two sports events that I absolutely will not bet on each year.

  • One is the Super Bowl.
  • The other is the World Series.

Focus early on the playoffs, and you’ll have more valuable data to base your picks on, which leads to better decisions. Steer clear of the heavy favorites, and you’ll become a better MLB bettor.

8. Key in on the Division Underdogs

One reason the divisional series is so beneficial for the savvy sports bettor is the wealth of information at your disposal.

Many times:
Divisional opponents will face off close to 20 games during the regular season. That gives you a tremendous sample size that is far better than what you could get in the NFL.

Most bettors will merely stop at betting on the favorite. Some others may look at the regular season record between the 2 teams, which will give you a better picture of the series.

Then there are the savvy gamblers:

  • They take the regular-season results.
  • The teams’ play since the All-Star break.
  • Recent trends.
  • And look for value in the underdog.

Betting the underdog in the divisional rounds of the playoffs can pay off tremendously. Usually, the lines are still loose enough to give you significant value while shading the public.

9. Steer Clear of Heavy Favorites

For a wealth of reasons, there’s almost always good reason to altogether avoid the heavy favorites.

Either way, you look at it, you aren’t going to see much value.

When you bet the money line, you’ll rarely be leveraging enough money to make a bet worth your investment.

When looking at the run line:
The challenge of accurately predicting how a chosen game will unfold is nearly impossible. You’ll never be able to make a long-term profit by solely betting on the heavy favorites.

Look for value in tight lines or, better yet, ride the dogs to massive wins. You don’t need to be right nearly as often to become profitable betting underdogs on the money line.

10. Account for the Umpires

We all know it as fans but hate when it involves our favorite teams. Umpires are human and fallible.

Each umpire has their own tendencies and demeanors. Some umpires want to be liked, so advantage to the home team. Other umpires seem to thrive on being the villain, advantage road team. Then there are the varying strike zones that can significantly influence the overall runs scored or tilt the favor one way or another.

Account for the home plate umpire when making your selections, and your MLB betting results will improve.


Walking the line between failure and success will often come down to working harder than the casual sports bettor.
It’s possible to become a profitable sports bettor:

  • By shopping lines.
  • Looking at key opportunities.
  • Managing your bankroll.
  • And outworking the public.

These 10 tips for becoming a better MLB bettor will put you in the best position to capitalize on the opportunities given at MLB betting sites. You won’t have many chances to get the best of the sportsbook, but if you develop a winning system, the rewards are fantastic.


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Rex Hoffman / Author

Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.

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