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2018/2019 EPL Golden Boot Odds & Breakdown

Golden Boot Prediction

We continue our English Premier League season preview with a breakdown today of the top goalscorer futures market and where the value lies.

The Premier League is littered with talented finishers and it is one of the more thrilling domestic soccer leagues in terms of chances generated and memorable goals created. In fact, the last seven winners of the Top Goalscorer award have netted no less than twenty-five goals and Mo Salah’s 32 tallies for Liverpool last season will surely be tough to top as we prepare for the upcoming year.

Below, we will take a detailed look at a few of the league’s top scorers and their odds associated with topping the stat table at the end of the season.  There is some intriguing value as we approach the beginning of the 18/19 EPL campaign.

Harry Kane – Tottenham Hotspur (+250)

Fresh off an elite goal-scoring World Cup as captain of the English side, Kane will have his fair share of backers this season.  He is excellent from the penalty spot, and the style in which the Spurs play seems to be quite conducive to him finding the back of the net with regularity.  

Kane is also as consistent as they come, as in the past three years the talented striker has not dipped below twenty-five goals.

He sits 22nd on the all-time charts, and could be primed to add to that in 2018/19.

One area which could go against Kane is that the team around him hasn’t really changed all that much.  The Spurs have not been active in the transfer market, and if there isn’t enough depth and creativity surrounding the star striker, he may need to work harder for his goals.  And though Kane is the rightful favorite, there could be better value elsewhere this season.

Mohamed Salah – Liverpool (+500)

Last year’s Golden Boot winner returns with vengeance to the 18/19 campaign, especially eager to find the back of the net after a pedestrian World Cup with Egypt.  Liverpool play the most offensively-inclined style out of all the Premier League teams, and that skill and creativity results in a ton of chances for Mo Salah and his crew of talented teammates.

Our Thought
The biggest thing with Salah is wondering if last season’s goal-scoring rate is sustainable.

Though he came to the EPL with some fanfare, nobody could have envisioned such a prolific rate of scoring, and repeating last year’s brilliance will take significant effort.

The other point worth noting is that his supporting cast is also very talented and they could take goals away from him.  Salah isn’t often the primary penalty taker anymore and while the additions of Xherdan Shaqiri and Naby Keita will help create space for the Egyptian, they also might tally some goals of their own.  Salah will no doubt be in the mix for the Reds again this season, but the amount of talent on his team this season won’t require him to be heroic in 2018/2019.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Arsenal (+650)

The Gunners’ main threat for goals this season will come from a bit of an unknown source in Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.  He quietly put together an impressive scoring rate last season, but with all of the hype surrounding Man City and Mo Salah, Aubameyang was able to ease into the Premier League.

This season it’s a fresh approach at the Emirates and Aubameyang will take a lead role.  Arsenal isn’t in the Champions League this season so the talented striker will be able to play every single week, and it is expected that the Gunners will play on the counter.  

The speed in which they’ll come at opposing defenses on the break should put fear into the rest of the EPL and Aubameyang will be leading that attack.

In all competitions, the Gabon captain netted 31 goals last season and having another talented and powerful strike partner in Alexandre Lacazette will also open up space and chances for Aubameyang.  And while new manager Unai Emery has seemingly settled on starting him out wide on the left flank, it shouldn’t impede his ability to get to prime scoring areas and find the back of the net.  As the fourth favorite on the betting board, a well-rested Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang definitely represents some value for the Gunners this year.

Romelu Lukaku – Manchester United (+800)

The big Belgian is fresh off a commanding World Cup showing and will look to have that generate into a ton of goals on the red side of Manchester this coming season.

Though it feels like he has been around for some time, the beast is only twenty-five years old and has now scorer 101 Premier League goals.  Last year Lukaku only netted sixteen, but he battled injuries and fended off threats from other strikers in the squad.

This season he’s the main target up front and should be scoring the vast majority of goals for Jose Mourinho’s side.  He is also surrounded by a ton of excellent playmaking talent that should make things easier for him.  The likes of Pogba, Mata, Lingard, Rashford, and Sanchez are all excellent passers and will be able to place the ball wherever Lukaku wants it.

Out of all the strikers in the Premier League, Lukaku is the toughest to deal with for opposing defenders.  He’s still young enough to realize that he has even greater limits to reach, and this could be the season to do it for the Belgian.  One area which could have bettors concerned is the current rifts within the Manchester United camp, as it doesn’t seem to be that great of a team atmosphere at the moment.  Still though, United have the talent to score goals, and Lukaku will surely be in the mix for the Golden Boot assuming he stays healthy throughout.

Gabriel Jesus – Manchester City (+1400)

It wouldn’t be a true Golden Boot preview if we didn’t have at least one Manchester City player, the problem is who to pick?  Between Aguero and Gabriel Jesus the Citizens have two elite finishers, but it seems as if Guardiola has grown to Jesus as the outright striker going forward.

Aguero will still feature no doubt, but Gabriel Jesus has the skill and strength to fend off bigger Premier League defenders and has proven in short time to be an elite finisher for the Citizens.  He will need to stay healthy and with all of the additional games City are likely to play this season, it’s important he features for the vast majority of them.  That is another concern.

Still though, this is a loaded team with many playmakers that will help Gabriel Jesus in his quest.  Playing with David Silva, Kevin de Bruyne, Leroy Sane, and now Riyah Mahrez – service will almost never be an issue upfront for Manchester City.  He scored thirteen goals in 19 starts last campaign, and with a new contract in his back pocket – look for City to reward him with even more minutes and opportunity.  No Brazilian has ever won the Premier League Golden Boot – Gabriel Jesus represents good value to change that this coming season.

Sadio Mane – Liverpool (+5000)

The final goal-scoring threat we will assess is a bit of a longshot, but one in which I think represents the best value out of any player on the betting board.

If you have read some of the season previews, you know I am quite high on Liverpool this season and I think they’ll score the most goals out of any club.  The additions they’ve made are high-level and the likes of Keita, Shaqiri, and Fabinho strengthen the midfield both defensively and offensively.

This year it won’t just be Sadio Mane along with Salah and Firmino.  They’ll have a lot more help and I think that will really benefit the speedy Mane.  

Coming off a World Cup showing where he was dynamic, look for that to carry over as the young Senegalese striker is only realizing his true potential.

His pace on the flank creates so many chances for himself, and it also seems as if Jurgen Klopp has settled on Mane being the prime penalty taker for Liverpool.  That’s a huge call when assessing Golden Boot odds.  In addition, I doubt Mane will have similar defensive responsibilities this season in terms of tracking back.  Bringing in Fabinho and solidifying the defense/keeper positions should allow more creative freedom and roaming from Mane, and with all of the attention on Salah and to a lesser extent, Roberto Firmino – I think Mane will be able to score a ton of goals with his speed and supporting cast this season.  At lofty odds, the Senegalese star might just be worth a shot.

The Verdict

There are many good options for top goalscorer of this year’s Premier League, but if we had to narrow this impressive field down to just one – I’d throw my money on Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.

The price point is reasonable and there is good value there, and assuming he isn’t injured he will feature every week up top surrounded by a talented and creative lineup.  Unai Emery’s style will lend itself well to goals, and having not featured this summer in the World Cup, Aubameyang will be keen to show that he’s also a world-class finisher.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang

7.50

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