2018 John Deere Classic Betting Preview

2018 John Deere Classic

Just outside of Barstow, you will find the small town but major business hub of Silvis, Illinois. It is there that John Deere has their headquarters and the TPC Deere Run golf course is the home of the John Deere Classic. I think it’s safe to say this is Deere country.

Nestled on the banks of the Rock River, a small tributary to the nearby mighty Mississippi, the TPC Deere Run golf course has been the home to this tournament since the year 2000.

Winning scores at this course have averaged nearly 20 under par for nearly 20 years now. Since this tournament is always played one week before the highly difficult British Open, many golfers prefer to get out to the UK several days early in an attempt to accustom their play to the unique design and characteristics of the course.

One of those stars we will be missing this week is the 2-time John Deere Classic champion, Jordan Spieth. Fun fact; Jordan became the first teenager to win a PGA Tour event since 1921 when he beat David Hearn and Zach Johnson in a playoff to finish 19 under par in 2013.

It’s a shame we won’t see Jordan compete, but he will be out in bloody England a week early to defend his 2017 British Open title.

I’m excited for next week too, but just like the John Deere Classic field, we need to focus on the task at hand. That focus is winning some cash to pay for all the firework fun we had over the neverending July 4th weekend.

BetOnline has odds to win the John Deere Classic led by favorite Bryson Dechambeau who comes in at 10-1. Bryson won here last year defeating Patrick Rodgers by one stroke to cash a check worth just over a million dollars.

There are also odds on who will finish in the top ten as well as the top five.

Let’s dive into these betting lines, find the best value, and make some picks!

Odds to Win the John Deere Classic

  • Bryson Dechambeau: +1000
  • Francesco Molinari: +1000
  • Zach Johnson: +1200
  • Joaquin Niemann: +1600
  • Ryan Moore: +1600
  • Kyle Stanley: +2000
  • Steve Stricker: +2000
  • Chesson Hadley: +2800
  • Patrick Rodgers: +5000

I like all of these golfers to perform well throughout this weekend up in Illinois. As a previously mentioned, Dechambeau is the defending champ here. He also is tied for 3rd on the tour with 7 top tens this year including 2nd and 3rd place finishes as well as a victory just over a month ago at The Memorial.

I can see why the sportsbooks have him as the favorite.

The 35-year-old Italian Francesco Molinari (+1000) will be riding some momentum of his own coming off a 21 under par winning performance at The National less than two weeks ago. In his 13 events played in 2018, though, this is his only top ten finish.

At first glance, that’s not very good value especially considering Chesson Hadley has 7 top tens this year and he is (+2800).

Upon Further Inspection, I found some very surprising statistics for Molinari. He is 4th on the tour at shots gained off-the-tee (.851) and 2nd on the Tour at shots gained tee-to-green with (1.677).

Francesco’s weakness is, without a doubt, putting. He ranks an abysmal 191st on the tour in shots gained-putting. He actually loses over half a stroke putting at (-.512).

I still like him enough to put him in my pool of 3-5 golfers to win the tournament.

A golfer I like a little more is Zach Johnson (+1200). He won the John Deere Classic in 2012 and finished runner-up the next two years.

Ryan Moore (+1600) won here in 2016 finishing 22 under par. Only the betting favorite Chambeau has a lower scoring average than Moore out of all the golfers in this week’s field.

I like Moore to include in your money spread to win.

Steve Stricker has a ton of value here. Maybe his age will hold him back from winning, but I expect at least a top ten finish from the 3-time winner at Deere Run.

Patrick Rodgers is my sleeper to win or finish top ten. He will have long odds for either. It just depends on how bad you want to win as opposed to how much do you want to win.

Don’t get greedy! Or do; it might be worth it!

The Indiana born Stanford graduate, Rodgers, was the runner-up here last year. We know he probably has a good amount of familiarity with the course being from nearby Indiana, and he’s obviously a smart guy being a Stanford grad.

His performances lately have been consistently mediocre so I wouldn’t break open the piggy bank for him, but he has excellent value as we know he at least plays this course at the highest level.

In Conclusion

This should be a really fun tournament for fans as well as the field of golfers in this week’s John Deere Classic. The competitors better have some fun here, because in next week’s British Open we will probably see scores double and even triple from this week.

Experts and sportsbooks alike love Bryson Dechambeau this week as he is playing as well as anyone on the tour right now and returns as the defending champion at the TPC at Deere Run.

I like him as well. You can put him in with your pool of golfers to win. I would put a moderate amount of money on maybe 3-5 guys to win. The payouts are huge, but it’s a gamble…obviously.

If you want a more realistic shot at winning some cash and also a chance to have multiple winners, you can pick a golfer to finish in the top ten or even the top five. I like the top ten bets for several reasons. One being you can easily reference the top ten finishing statistics for the 2018 PGA tour.

You will find Dechambeau and Chesson Hadley near the top. These guys are very consistent, and that’s what you should be looking for when you’re gambling.

Most of the top ten and top five odds have the golfers in the same order as I listed them to win. You just have a much better chance at winning, just maybe 10x less of a payout.

I love Dechambeau, Ryan Moore, Steve Stricker, and Chesson Hadley to finish in the top ten and if you’re feeling froggy go ahead and bet on them to win as well. It would be a huge payout, at least 10-1 if you win.

Look out for Patrick Rodgers as my sleeper!

The guy shot 20 under on this course a year ago. You can’t ignore his value.

Have fun with your bets and enjoy this week’s major warmup from Illinois, the John Deere Classic.

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