The Biggest College Football Game of the Year!

College Football Alabama Crimson Tide vs LSU Tigers - NCAAF Logo

As Fall weather cools the nation, college football regular season is just heating up…rather quickly, though.

LSU has been battling tough teams for a couple of months now including the Texas Longhorns as well as SEC foes the Florida Gators and Auburn Tigers.

Even though the Tigers came out ahead in each of these three games and every contest this season, they aren’t your typical LSU team. They are getting it done on offense and mostly through the air at that.

Say what? Yes! And the final score on Saturday will not be 9-6 as it was 8 years ago when both Bama and the Tigers were undefeated at kickoff.

This meeting was coined “The Game of the Century” but this weekend’s contest has the potential to be even better.

If you’re a fan of scoring, you will probably enjoy this one. The over/under is currently at 63.5 with the under (-120) and the over at even money. Many experts are leaning heavily towards these teams going over that point total by a significant margin. I don’t know about all of that but we will see.

The LSU vs Auburn game two weeks ago was a modest 23-20 but the Auburn Tigers have a defensive line like the Clemson Tigers of 2018. 4 players are likely to be drafted in the first round. They can stuff the run and get after anybody.

The Florida and Texas Longhorns games, though, were 42-28 and 45-38, respectively.

Tigers Head Coach Ed Orgeron is a dream, isn’t he?

There he is. Big ol’ sweet teddy bear.

It’s easy for us to sit back and laugh and maybe even romanticize about him being our coach and even though I think he would have me ready to run through Ray Lewis, I don’t think it would always be so much fun having him as a head coach.

Life isn’t about having fun, though, and Ed seems like he is truly meant to be a head football coach and nothing else. Sorry, I could go on all day about him. The man-crush has been there for a while now.

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban isn’t quite as charming but he is every bit as effective even in his 60s.

The West Virginia native and son of a coach, Saban, once again has his team undefeated, ranked inside the top three, and primed for another playoff appearance.

Nick and Clemson boss Dabo Swinney have taken the light road to get here and the critics are hating on them for it. They figure that their respective names will be good enough to get them into the college football playoffs even if there are other undefeated teams with better resumes.

It’s hard to say they won’t be right but before the Tide can worry about another SEC Title game showdown with the Georgia Bulldogs, they will have to win their division first.

Who stands in their way? An LSU team with a bulldog for a head coach and the best offense the school has had since, well, I don’t even know.

Even though the game will be played in Alabama, the Tigers are being given almost a touchdown by the college football sportsbooks.

The Surprising Betting Odds for the Alabama vs LSU Game

Spread:

  • Alabama -6 (-115)
  • LSU +6 (-105)
Money line:

  • Alabama -215
  • LSU +185
Total Points:

  • Over 63.5 (+100)
  • Under 63.5 (-120)

Betting odds provided by Betonline.ag

I really had to hit a double-take when I saw these betting odds. They were at (-6.5) for the Tide last week.

I can see plenty of public money rolling in on the Tigers getting nearly a touchdown in this one. We don’t really want to side with the public that often, though, because there’s a reason Vegas casinos are so extravagant.

People make stupid bets all the time. Believe me. I feel like one of those amateurs sometimes still when I completely foul one up. My gut is telling me that LSU is a steal with 6 points here at (-105) but my brain and more so experience leads me towards the thought that the experts believe Bama will win by 10.

It’s a tough one, no doubt.

We touched on the Tigers run so far this season a bit ago. Let’s take a look at how the Tide got to be 8-0 in 2019. Well, I’ll keep it rather brief.

Of all their opponents, none are currently ranked inside the top 25.

They beat Texas A&M and South Carolina scoring 47 on each team but still giving up 23 and 27.

  • The LSU offense, which is currently ranked 4th in the nation in both yards per game and points scored will easily be the Alabama defense’s toughest test of the season.
  • The Tide offense isn’t far behind at 10th in yards per game and even has slightly more yards per play than the Tigers. Saban’s boys are second in the nation only to the perennial offensive genius that is the Oklahoma Sooners led by former Tide star Jalen Hurts.

Okay, both of their offenses are great.

Bama converts a higher percentage of third downs but it has been against weaker competition and both teams are still in the top ten in the country in this statistic.

Neither team is in the top 50 in rushing offense but both are top five in passing O with each quarterback averaging over 10 yards per pass. That’s outstanding!

The only major difference I could find was turnover ratio where the Tide have outshined the Tigers by a good margin. Again, strength of schedule, but I would say it’s probable that Alabama wins the turnover battle on Saturday at 3:30 Eastern.

LSU Tiger Joe Burrow does some of his best work against the team’s toughest competition. He has completed 80% of his pass attempts in the 3 previous games mentioned including 31/39 for 471 yards and 4 TDs against Texas. Heck, against the vaunted Auburn front, he was 32/42 for 321.

That Bama defense is banged up too. They have been all year.

Now for the big “question”.

Will Tua Tagovailoa Play?

I put the word question in quotation marks for a reason because even though head coach Nick Saban is sticking to the game-time decision talk, I think we all know an ankle sprain is not going to keep Tua from this one.

LSU gets to the QB fairly well at 2.5 sacks/game but Bama has only allowed just over 1 per contest all year.

I think the Tide will be trying to hit Jeudy and friends on those shallow to mid-range crossing routes instead of completely airing it out over the top.

This will play to the weakness of the LSU defense as well as minimize the probability of defenders crashing through the young Hawaiin quarterback’s leg.

This is going to be an incredible game. I think 3rd down conversions and the turnover battle will both be keys to winning.

I know you probably don’t want to hear this after taking the time to read this article but this game might not be the best contest to bet on.

Alabama has won 8 in a row against this team. They own them but it is without question that this year’s LSU Tiger squad is the best team the Bayou has seen in over a decade.

The Tide is really banged up but they are Alabama and have as much depth as any school in the country. They haven’t played any top 25 teams but that doesn’t mean they stink either.

I feel like most people will be taking the Tigers with the points but I believe Bama will cover. The original line being set at 6.5 just seems too good to be true for Tiger supporters.

I’m giving the game ball to Jerry Jeudy right now for his 200+ receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.

In Conclusion

As much as the (-6.5) and now the betting line of (-6) surprises me, something tells me the Alabama Crimson Tide will win by 7-10 points. They are at home. Do they have some players that are injured? Sure. Do they have capable backups? Most definitely.

There are 100 other football games you can bet on this weekend. I would say just sit back and enjoy this one.

The over/under is not predictable. The Alabama defense could force 3 turnovers and only give up 1 but where will they happen on the field.

Both teams are very well-coached and each man under center could win the Heisman Trophy.

The Alabama moneyline bet is the most likely to hit but it doesn’t really hold much value at (-215).

I say just put up the money for them to cover. You’ll get it back if it’s a 6 point game now and if this one comes down to a field goal, the Tide has the better kicker.

The Alabama receiving corps is just that much better in space and Mel Kiper said it at the beginning of the season. Jerry Jeudy is the best player in college football.

Place Your Bet Now!

Mike Pruitt / author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.