European Tour Betting Picks: BMW PGA Championship

Last week was a fun one for the PGA Tour at The Military Tribute at The Greenbrier.

Stars of the definite future and apparent present shined. 20-year-old Chilean Joaquin Niemann shot 21 under par; six strokes better than the rest of the field securing his first-ever PGA Tour victory.

We were on Norweigian Viktor Hovland and South Korean Sung Jae Im. Both men, who are a couple of the brightest young stars on Tour, played very well.

Hovland continued with his stellar Sunday form as he shot a 64 to get him into the top ten. This was his fifth straight week shooting either a 65 or 64 in the final round of a tournament.

Viktor finished 10th and Sung Jae 19th.

While Sung Jae and Joaquin are competing at the Sanderson Farms Championship on the PGA Tour, the man from Oslo is taking his talents to this week’s BMW PGA Championship from Surrey, England.

There are much bigger stars competing across the pond this week, so I wanted to preview and pick that tournament instead of the Sanderson Farms down in Jackson, Mississippi.

Among the field in England are the newly-crowned FedEx Cup Champ Rory McIlroy, Americans Patrick Reed, and Tony Finau along with Brits Paul Casey and Justin Rose.

The Spaniard Jon Rahm will also be in attendance as well as Italian superstar Francesco Molinari.

This week also marks the return to the UK for British Open Winner Shane Lowry. He hasn’t competed since the PGA Playoff version of the BMW Championship.

That’s a full month break for the Irishman who struggled in his next couple of tourneys after his big win in Northern Ireland.

Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter are a couple of 40 something’s we may be targeting with some top twenty bets.

The aforementioned Hovland hasn’t shown much weakness as of late. It is a short week for him having traveled from West Virginia to England but if anybody can handle the lag, it’s a 22-year-old.

Check out some of our top golf betting sites here.

The betting odds today, though, are brought to us by BetOnline.AG.

Let’s take a look at the course, identify some golfers with the best value, and make some picks for your betting spread this week.

Wentworth West Course

This golf course has seen quite a bit of renovation in the recent past. At first, they tried to modernize it and later, after several golfers’ boycotts, the course was then retroactively re-designed to resemble the West Course they once knew.

What does this mean for bettors?

Well, we can’t rely too heavily on course history as there have only been two years of play since the last overhaul.

The greens were switched from a bentgrass/poa mix to pure bentgrass which should prove to be much more consistent.

The greens as a whole should play rather friendly as the entrances were opened so that bouncing balls could make their way onto the surface.


Thursday through Saturday are looking fresh with some 10-15 mph winds swirling around on days 2 and 3.

There is about a 50% chance of rain on Sunday but it doesn’t look like it will be enough to suspend play.

The classical tree-lined course can get a little hairy with just moderate winds, so good all-around play and bogey avoidance will each be paramount.

It’s a nice time of year in England, and I’m sure there will be a massive turnout to see almost all of Europe’s top golfers in action.

Top Twenty

Henrik Stenson

This Swede is in excellent form.

Just check out some of his most recent performances.

  • Tied for 3rd at the Scandanavian Masters
  • Tied for 20th at The Open
  • Tied for 4th at the Scottish Open
  • Tied for 9th at the US Open
  • Tied for 8th at the Canadian Open

Stenson is also a historically solid golfer in windy conditions ranking around the top ten over the past decade.

It’s not just the wind Henrik corrals with his sails, he loves the rain too.

Only Rory McIlroy has averaged more strokes gained when it’s coming down in the past 5 years.

The Bet
Stenson Top Twenty

Tommy Fleetwood

Long hair, don’t care.

I’ll never forget the smile on Tommy’s face after beating the brakes off of the American Ryder Cup Team around this time last year.

Since then, I along with many others have expected him to break out as a superstar on the PGA Tour but it just hasn’t happened.

Tommy still has zero wins on the PGA Tour.

Even if we include the European Tour, we have to go back over 20 months to January 2018 to find his last victory.

It’s a hard knock life for Fleetwood. He’s at the door. Can someone please let him in?

Shane Lowry slammed it shut on Fleetwood’s fingers at The Open.

Since then, though, Tommy has a 4th place finish, an 11th, 16th, and an 8th in his last five tournaments played.

At last year’s event, Fleetwood finished tied for 20th alongside fellow Brit Paul Casey.

The man loves playing golf on his home soil. I expect a top twenty finish from Tommy boy.

The Bet
Fleetwood Top Twenty

Eddie Pepperell

Speaking of Brits who love playing in the UK, Eddie is that bloke as well.

The 28-year-old from Oxford is a solid golfer.

We have to go back a way, but he was one stroke away from repeating as champ at the British Masters this year and he also finished 4th at the Irish Open.

He can be a little streaky and unpredictable but hence the nice odds for a top twenty finish.

The Bet
Pepperell Top Twenty

In Conclusion

This week’s tournament, the PGA BMW Championship, not to be confused with the PGA Championship or BMW Championship, takes place in what looks to be a mostly sunny Surrey, England.

The wind is expected to kick up a bit and with a tight tree-lined course and some potentially high-scoring par 4’s, golfer’s tee-to-green game better be on point.

We are expecting rain on Sunday and probably 3 days of wind. I love coastal killer Henrik Stenson here.

Along with the Swede, Brits Tommy Fleetwood and Eddie Pepperell both bring their A-games when golfing at home in the United Kingdom.

Get your bets in early, team, take a break from the frustrating foosball, and let the flowing fairways and gorgeous greens comfort your eyes and ease your mind.

Mike Pruitt / Author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.