2020 Election Props – Will Joe Biden Dominate the West Coast?

  • West coast states likely to remain largely unchanged from 2016
  • Arizona is the one swing state that could affect things
  • Biden may run up popular vote total in California

Election Day is under a week away, which means we’re that much closer to learning whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will be running the show for the next four years. Trump’s re-election odds have been favorable for most of his first term in office, but Biden has overtaken the incumbent as the betting favorite as we inch closer to November 3.

The 2020 election is expected to be the most popular political betting event of all-time, so political betting sites have adjusted their offerings accordingly. All of our top-ranked sports betting sites have up-to-the-minute odds on the outright election winner as well as Senate-specific and state-by-state Electoral College props.

In 2016, Trump and Hillary Clinton essentially split the vote in the Western US. While Clinton was able to run up the popular vote score in California, Trump managed to pick up a key win in Arizona to help put him over the top.

Will the 2020 electoral map look a lot like the 2016 version on the west coast? Or will either candidate successfully flip any states this time around? Using the electoral college prop odds available at MyBookie, let’s dive right in and dig for a little betting value.

Arizona Odds at MyBookie

  • Joe Biden (-140)
  • Donald Trump (+110)

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California Odds at Bovada

  • Joe Biden (-2000)
  • Donald Trump (+900)

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Colorado Odds at BetNow

  • Joe Biden (-1000)
  • Donald Trump (+600)

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What’s Happening in Alaska?

  • Donald Trump (-1000)
  • Joe Biden (+600)

Alaska isn’t a state we hear about often when it comes to politics. The nation’s youngest state has been a reliable Republican haven for quite some time, and Trump won here easily four years ago. Trump garnered over 51 percent of the vote, while Clinton checked in at just over 36 percent.

The latest polls have Biden improving on Clinton’s performance here, but it isn’t likely to be enough. Fortunately for Biden, Alaska’s tiny population means he’s only losing out on three electoral votes here. The latest polls give Trump about a nine-point edge over his Democratic opponent.

We have the makings of a potentially competitive Senate race, though. Republican Dan Sullivan is a -260 favorite to hold off challenger Al Gross (+180), which is interesting considering Sullivan is only in his first term in office. Taking a flier on Gross at +180 makes sense considering Sullivan is favored by just three percentage points in recent polling. When it comes to betting on the Electoral College, though, Alaska is safe for Trump (-1000).

Biden Can Flip Arizona

  • Donald Trump (+110)
  • Joe Biden (-140)

Arizona is one of the many states that has been a Republican safe ground for years. However, it’s looking like a toss-up in 2020 thanks in large part to a substantial demographic shift. Trump only beat Clinton here by about 100,000 votes in 2016, but that was more than enough to net him all 11 electoral votes.

Republicans have a long and rich history here. The only time the state has turned blue in recent memory was in 1996 when it flipped for Bill Clinton. Other than that, Arizona has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1952.

2020 may be different, though. Biden is actually a -140 favorite to win, and polls have consistently given him an edge. Biden is up 48-44 in the most recent Gravis Marketing polls conducted in the state, and some other polls have even put him over 50 percent.

Trump losing Arizona would be a critical blow to his chances of winning the general election considering he needs every swing state he can possibly get if he hopes to retain his seat in the Oval Office. If you want to bet on Biden to win Arizona, you may as well also wager on Biden winning the general.

California Is No Contest

  • Donald Trump (+900)
  • Joe Biden (-2000)

California went red for native son Ronald Reagan back in the 80s, but this state is about as blue as you can get. Clinton beat Trump by a margin of four million (!) votes in this state alone last time around. The latest SurveyMonkey polls cited at FiveThirtyEight have Biden holding a massive 61-37 lead over Trump.

There’s no betting value on either side in this one. Biden will take California without any drama, obviously.

Colorado Trending Blue

  • Donald Trump (+600)
  • Joe Biden (-1000)

Colorado was something of a swing state in 2016. Clinton came out in front, but not by a lot. The former Secretary of State won Colorado by about 100,000 votes to claim all nine electoral votes.

However, Colorado is becoming more and more progressive. Trump is getting trounced in the latest polls here, with Biden holding a 59-39 edge in the most recent tallies conducted by SurveyMonkey. That’s remarkably close to the margins we’re seeing in California, so Trump likely doesn’t have a snowball’s chances in hell of making up that kind of ground by Election Day.

We are also likely to see the Republicans lose a Senate seat here, with incumbent Cory Gardner looking likely to lose to challenger John Hickenlooper. The former Governor is a -850 favorite to win this race as of now, with Gardner down at +450. As is the case with Cali, there isn’t much to like from a betting perspective in Colorado.

Hawaii is Safe for Democrats

  • Donald Trump (+1000)
  • Joe Biden (-4000)

Everyone likes Hawaii, right? Everyone except Republicans seeking office, I suppose. Clinton blasted Trump 61-29.4 here four years ago, and the only Republican to have won the state within the past 40 years was Reagan in 1984.

There are just four electoral votes on the line in Hawaii, and it’s safe to assume Biden will take them all. Biden is up 64-34 in the most recent polls conducted here. There’s little betting value on Biden at -4000, but it’s impossible to imagine Hawaii going awry for the Democrats in 2020.

Trump Will Take Idaho

  • Donald Trump (-4000)
  • Joe Biden (+1000)

Idaho has just three electoral college votes available, but they’re surely going to land in Trump’s tally. This state’s history of voting Republican rivals that of Arizona. Since 1952, the only Democrat to win Idaho was Lyndon Johnson back in 1964. Trump crushed Clinton here in 2016 by a margin of 59.3-27.5. Hillary only won two counties in Idaho.

As is the case with other states, though, Biden does appear to have gained some ground. SurveyMonkey’s latest poll has Trump up 18 points here, 58-40. That’s certainly a potentially worrisome sign for Republicans moving forward, but that may have more to do with Trump’s overall unpopularity than anything else.

There won’t be much to watch here on Election Night.

Montana’s Senate Drama

  • Donald Trump (-1500)
  • Joe Biden (+750)

Montana is another small electoral prize, with just three votes up for grabs. This state has voted Democrat just twice since 1952, and Trump beat Clinton here by a sizable 20-point margin last time around. Trump garnered over 56 percent of the vote, with Clinton failing to even crack 36 points. Gary Johnson, for good measure, attracted about five percent in 2016.

Surprisingly, Montana’s polls are somewhat close. Trump has a 51-47 edge over Biden in SurveyMonkey’s latest tallies, while we also have what looks to be a hyper-competitive race for a Senate seat. Steve Daines is actually trailing challenger Steve Bullock 48-47, per the latest Montana State University Billings numbers.

Montana’s small population means the state is more winnable for an underdog like Biden. The +750 odds on the ex-VP are quite alluring, but it’s hard to imagine a state Trump won by 20 points four years ago completely flipping this time around.

If you want to bet on Montana, take a shot on Bullock to upset Daines in the Senate race. Bullock’s +155 odds are quite attractive, especially considering the race appears to be a toss-up at this point.

Can Biden Keep New Mexico Blue?

  • Donald Trump (+500)
  • Joe Biden (-800)

New Mexico has gone back-and-forth between Republicans and Democrats over the years. Since 1952, the state has voted for Republicans in presidential elections nine times. New Mexico has voted for Democratic candidates another eight times in the same span, including in 2016. New Mexico has actually voted Democrat in each of the last three elections, dating back to Barack Obama’s first run in 2008.

Hillary won it by about eight points in ’16, and Biden seems likely to hang on in 2020. SurevyMonkey’s most recent poll has Biden up 53-45. That’s actually a slimmer margin in favor of Biden than he got here in earlier polls, but the Land of Enchantment does seem likely to remain in the win column for the Democrats.

I suppose there is a bit more value here on Biden at -800 than you’ll see in many other west coast states, but the profit potential is still pretty limited.

Oregon is Biden Country

  • Donald Trump (+600)
  • Joe Biden (-1000)

Donald Trump has consistently cried foul about the “rioting” taking place in Portland in recent months in an attempt to salvage his floundering campaign, but all that bickering isn’t going to help him win Oregon’s seven electoral votes. This state has been reliably blue since voting for Michael Dukakis over George H.W. Bush back in 1988, and it hasn’t looked back ever since.

Clinton won Oregon by 11 points in 2016, 50.1-39.1. Biden seems likely to increase that margin, with the latest polls putting him up nearly 30 points ahead of the 2020 election. Trump’s comments about Portland won’t be helping him win any popularity contests here.

Trump Leads in Utah

  • Donald Trump (-2000)
  • Joe Biden (+1000)

Donald Trump isn’t the most popular Republican in Utah, but he’s popular enough to keep it red. Back in 2016, Trump won it with just 45.5 percent of the vote. It didn’t help either candidate that the Independent candidate that year, Evan McMullin, hailed from the state. McMullin presumably ate into more McMullin garnered over 21 percent of the vote, with Clinton checking in at 27.4 percent.

The absence of McMullin this time around will presumably keep Utah safely red, but the margins aren’t massive here. Recent polls give the incumbent a 54-43 edge. That’s enough to keep Utah in the Republican win column on Election Night, which is all that matters if you’re betting on this one.

Wyoming is Deep Red

  • Donald Trump (-5000)
  • Joe Biden (+1600)

According to the odds, Biden has a worse shot at winning Wyoming than Trump does of winning California. That speaks volumes about how reliably red the state is. SurveyMonkey’s polls give Trump a 66-32 edge over the former VP. Trump got about two-thirds of the total vote in this state last time around, so those latest polls look pretty spot-on.

Biden may not win Wyoming if a literal corn cob was at the top of the Republican ticket, so we don’t see much betting value here.

Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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