Here we go, guys!
I think we are at 8/18 race winners picked so far this year.
It’s been a couple of weeks since we made a play. Last Sunday, NASCAR took the week off.
The previous week, my dad had a stroke and emergency surgery on his carotid artery. It’s been very tough but he has been starting to turn a corner with his thoughts and words the past couple of days.
It really bothered me to miss picking a race because we have been so hot this year! I don’t know if I would have gone with Hamlin, though, to win as he was on a bit of a skid.
This week’s race is pretty cut and dry to me.
Kevin Harvick has won the last two races here, was wrecked in 2017, and finished 5th in the race prior to that.
He has been the best driver in NASCAR’s Cup Series all year long. He is first in the points standings but after Denny Hamlin’s win in Kansas a couple of weeks ago, he is now one victory short of the 11 car’s 5.
12 top 5’s for Kev and 10 for Denny.
2020 has more or less been about these two drivers. They have combined to win half of the 18 races so far this season. Their betting odds each week, of course, reflect that.
BetOnline is the provider of said NASCAR betting odds this week. Let’s pick’em!
Kevin Harvick: +400
It’s more or less automatic at this point.
(+400) denotes an implied probability of 20%. If they hold this race 5 times, I think Kev wins at least 2 of them. That gives us a massive edge right there.
The days of getting the Harv at 7 or 8 to 1 are over. If we pick 4 drivers including a couple of top three plays that don’t hit and Kevin wins, we break even. That’s no fun!
That is kinda what this has turned into. I’m watching the race pulling against him because we also have the second place guy like a Blaney or Truex who pays 9 or 10 to 1.
Good problem to have, I suppose.
We were set up to win and probably hit a top three as well in our last race we picked but a couple of nasty wrecks, one very late, threw off the pit schedules, and some low level guys caught a break.
Harvick to win, though.
Martin Truex Jr: +900
This is the deal of the day! I am in love with this price.
Marty doesn’t have the best starting position (11th) with Almirola on the pole, Hamlin on the front row as well and Harvick starting in row 4.
Truex has won a couple of top three bets for me for I think (+250) each and I believe we hit a win with him once this year.
If you have been paying attention, you know this is the best Truex has been running all year long.
He was wrecked in Texas but sandwich that race between 2nd and 3rd place finishes and we have a fairly hot meal, I mean driver.
The #19 Camry has a pretty nice track history at New Hampshire as well. 6,4,5,3,7 in his last five starts. I would like to see a victory but that means we wouldn’t be getting him at 9 to 1.
Martin just hasn’t been able to finish here. In the past 10 races at this track, he has led 33% more laps than Harvick who has 3 wins over that span.
It isn’t like Truex isn’t a finisher because we know he is so in my mind, it’s only a matter of time before he visits victory lane in New Hampshire.
Aric Almirola: +500
This guy might be the hottest driver in the Cup Series. It is hard to argue otherwise.
He is also starting on the pole Sunday.
6,10,8,3,5,3,3,5 in his last 8 starts minus the All Star Race which was just a quick shootout. The 6th, 10th, and 8th are in his previous three, though, so maybe he is starting to slide a little.
Let’s look at his track history.
The numbers aren’t great for the last 10 races but a lot can change in 5 years. He is pretty solid here, though, and finished third a couple of years ago.
It’s not likely, of course, but I like the 5 to 1 for a driver who recently went on a 5 race top 5 streak.
Hopefully, these guys can beat the mid-Summer heat this weekend up in New Hampshire. Anything is better than the south right now, I would imagine.
I hope I don’t regret leaving Denny Hamlin off the ticket today. I definitely don’t have anything against him. There is no fading going on.
I just like Harvick over him slightly and Truex’s (+900) and Almirola top three at 5 to 1 were too good to pass up.
Get your bets in for Sunday’s race now, guys!
I could see Harvick’s line moving down to (+350) or even 3 to 1 before they start their engines.