Awards season is officially here!
The 2022 Golden Globes will kick things off on Sunday, January 9, followed by the SAG Awards, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and Oscars – with roughly a million smaller awards shows sprinkled between those events.
As the first show of the season, the Golden Globes – voted on and awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association — will set the tone for the year and give handicappers a better idea of what to expect in subsequent ceremonies. Each group of voters has unique tendencies, but the top nominees tend to succeed across the board.
On this page, we’ll be looking at the 2022 Golden Globes betting lines for the following “Best Actor” categories:
- Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama
- Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
- Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture
- Best Television Actor – Drama Series
- Best Television Actor – Musical/Comedy Series
- Best Supporting Actor – Television
MyBookie is offering action on all the categories discussed in this series of Golden Globes blogs!
Place Your 2022 Golden Globe Awards Bets at MyBookie
Crucial Betting News!
Before we dive into the six Best Actor categories, we must address recent events that promise to impact Golden Globes wagers significantly. This year’s show won’t have a red carpet, lengthy appreciation speeches, or even an audience present at the Beverly Hilton in Los Angeles. It won’t even be on television!
Due to recent controversies over a lack of diversity among the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (and allegations of corrupt voting processes), the entertainment industry’s brightest stars are boycotting the event. The uproar was triggered by February’s Los Angeles Times investigation that revealed none of the association’s 87-member voting base was Black.
In response, NBC decided to drop this year’s Golden Globes broadcast.
“We continue to believe that the HFPA is committed to meaningful reform,” said the network in a statement. “However, change of this magnitude takes time and work, and we feel strongly that the HFPA needs time to do it right. As such, NBC will not air the 2022 Golden Globes. Assuming the organization executes on its plan, we are hopeful we will be in a position to air the show in January 2023.”
The HFPA is in damage control mode after celebrities such as Scarlette Johansson and Tom Cruise have publicly condemned the organization – the latter even returned his three Golden Globe statuettes.
On Monday, they unveiled pa list of reforms.
“Regardless of the next air date of the Golden Globes, implementing transformational changes as quickly — and as thoughtfully — as possible remains the top priority for our organization. We invite our partners in the industry to the table to work with us on the systemic reform that is long overdue, both in our organization as well as within the industry at large.”
This is critical information for bettors for three reasons:
- Issues of race and diversity will be at the forefront of HFPA voters’ minds when they cast their ballots.
- Similarly, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association added 21 new journalists to its voting pool. The group comprises 48% women, 29% identifying as Black, 29% Hispanic, 24% Asian, and 19% Middle Eastern or North African. Given the current climate around the awards show, they’ll want to make their presence felt on Sunday.
- The Golden Globes are known to favor big-name celebrities in hopes that the most prestigious figures in Hollywood will attend their awards. This is no longer a factor – nor even a possibility.
Best of all: no slogging through hours of self-serving emotional celebrity diatribes or commercials to see if we’ve won our bets! The results will post online Sunday night.
2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Actor (Drama)
|Best Actor (Drama)||Betting Odds|
|Will Smith (King Richard)||-230|
|Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)||+270|
|Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)||+900|
|Mahershala Ali (Swan Song)||+1200|
|Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)||+1400|
- 2019 – Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
- 2020 – Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
- 2021 – Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
After watching several movies (in which I had little interest) and scouring the internet for the opinions of entertainment handicappers and awards shows “experts,” I’m confident that the 2022 Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama is a two-man race.
The betting lines suggest the same.
Will Smith is the heavy favorite for his depiction of Richard Williams in King Richard; Benedict Cumberbatch is Smith’s primary competition at +270 odds, but an unlikely spoiler.
King Richard is a biopic chronicling Richard Williams’ successful journey to mold his two daughters, Venus and Serena, into tennis superstars. It received a 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating from the critics and a 98% audience score. Will Smith’s performance is one of the key elements receiving praise.
So, he would probably win the Golden Globe for this category regardless (deservedly so). However, when you factor in the issues plaguing the Hollywood Foreign Press, the likelihood of an upset decreases dramatically.
Smith stars in a picture about an African American family from Compton, California, overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds and succeeding at a level never-before-seen in tennis — a sport with minimal Black representation at the time.
To deny Will Smith his Best Actor Award, given the current narrative and subject matter of the movie, would confirm every criticism of the HFPA. If the Golden Globes are going to regain their former status, they better avoid such a moronic public relations disaster.
2022 Golden Globe Awards-Best Actor Musical/Comedy
|Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)||Betting Odds|
|Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick…Boom!)||-280|
|Peter Dinklage (Cyrano)||+330|
|Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up)||+1000|
|Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza)||+1200|
|Anthony Ramos (In the Heights)||+1200|
- 2019 – Christian Bale (Vice)
- 2020 – Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
- 2021 – Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
The betting odds for Best Actor in a Motion Picture Comedy or Musical are similarly top-heavy to the drama category. However, I see more potential for an upset – and not just from Peter Dinklage at +330, the second-most-favored nominee.
Andrew Garfield (-280)
Andrew Garfield had a tremendous year, starring in Tick, Tick…Boom!, as well as making an earth-shattering surprise appearance in the biggest superhero movie in recent history. I’d call it a cameo; only he was much more involved in the second half of that Marvel film (which I’m avoiding naming to avoid spoilers) than I expected.
While this award is strictly for his role in Tick, Tick…Boom!, narrative is always a critical factor in voting. His performance in the aforementioned cameo received such rave reviews; it appears to have boosted how he’s being perceived right now.
Tick, Tick…Boom! is a musical directed by Lin-Manuel Miranda (of Hamilton fame). It follows Garfield’s character Jon – based on Jonathan Larson, the creator of Rent – who is waiting tables in New York while chasing his dream to be a famous theater composer.
Hollywood loves nothing more than depictions of itself. Making a movie about making a movie / succeeding in the entertainment industry is the quickest way to be flooded with all sorts of little gold trophies.
Leonardo DiCaprio (+1000)
If Andrew Garfield doesn’t win for Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, I think Leonardo DiCaprio, not Peter Dinklage, will be the beneficiary. Don’t Look Up, a satire about a world-ending comet on a collision course with Earth, is the hottest movie going right now.
The Netflix comedy broke the streaming platform’s record for most viewing hours, with 152.59 million hours watched between December 24 and January 2. Stories reporting on the film’s success give it some serious added momentum at precisely the right time.
Don’t Look Up is also an allegory for climate change, a cause that’s near and dear to Hollywood’s heart. If the 2022 Golden Globes were being broadcast like normal, the prospect of Leo attending the festivities and giving an hour-long speech about the environment would make DiCaprio a shoo-in for the award.
Still, at +1000 odds, I like Leonardo Dicaprio’s chances — even under the current circumstances.
2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Supporting Actor
|Best Supporting Actor||Betting Odds|
|Ciaran Hinds (Belfast)||+120|
|Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)||+150|
|Jamie Dornan (Belfast)||+500|
|Troy Kotsur (CODA)||+550|
|Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar)||+2500|
- 2019 – Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
- 2020 – Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
- 2021 – Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
I won’t pretend to have watched any of these movies, so I’m not going to spend too much time on the Supporting Actor category. As for the diversity factor possibly affecting voting optics, all five nominees are white.
From my research, I can tell you that Belfast is the most critically acclaimed film represented amongst these supporting actors. However, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan were both nominated for their roles in that movie, potentially splitting the Belfast vote.
I’m leaning towards Kodi Smit-McPhee – though, admittedly, it has nothing to do with the actual performances being judged.
The Power of the Dog and Belfast lead the Golden Globes nominations with seven apiece. According to the experts, Belfast is favored to win Best Picture and will probably take either Best Screenplay or Best Director.
That means the HFPA voters will look to award The Power of the Dog some consolation trophies in lesser categories – one of which, I predict, will be Best Supporting Actor.
Best Actor in A TV Series – Musical/Comedy
|Best Actor in a TV Series (Musical/Comedy)||Betting Odds|
|Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)||-500|
|Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building)||+600|
|Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building)||+700|
|Nicholas Hoult (The Great)||+1500|
|Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)||+2000|
- 2019 – Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
- 2020 – Rammy Youssef (Ramy)
- 2021 – Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)
I am on record as a Ted Lasso superfan. And if you read my article about the comedy’s inevitable dominance at the 2021 Emmy’s, you probably won lots of money.
The Jason Sudeikis project about an American football coach managing an English Premier League club swept the Emmys and will see some of that success rollover to the Golden Globes.
None of these other nominees has as strong a claim to this category as Sudeikis. The –500 favorite is a lock to take home the award for Best Actor in a Comedy Television Series.
Best Actor in A TV Series – Drama
|Best Actor in a TV Series (Drama)||Betting Odds|
|Jeremy Strong (Succession)||-225|
|Brian Cox (Pose)||+400|
|Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game)||+500|
|Billy Porter (Pose)||+800|
|Omar Sy (Lupin)||+1400|
- 2019 – Richard Madden (Bodyguard)
- 2020 – Brian Cox (Succession)
- 2021 – Josh O’Connor (The Crown)
From the looks of things, Succession will be one of the biggest winners at the 2021 Golden Globes. The television drama airs on HBO and is about a powerful media and entertainment family’s struggles after their father’s stepping down leaves power vacuum and uncertainty in the company.
Jeremy Strong plays Kendall Roy, Logan Roy’s second-oldest son. He’s one of the leading contenders to be his father’s successor. Strong, a –225 favorite to win the 2022 Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a TV Series (Drama), won a Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series in 2020.
The third season of Succession has a 96% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. You know how it is when these beloved HBO shows get hot: they sweep up all the television awards!
Lee Jung-Jae (+500)
That said, I wouldn’t sleep on Lee Jung-Jae for his role in Squid Game. After being released on Netflix in September, the South Korean survival drama generated an insane amount of buzz over the last half of 2021. It’s the streaming platform’s most-watched series ever and was the top-viewed program in 94 countries.
I think the Hollywood Foreign Press members will favor the foreign thriller and award South Korean actor Lee Jung-Jae for his role in the internationally acclaimed drama. More importantly, at +500 odds, the underdog offers by far the most betting value in the category.
Best Supporting Actor Series, Miniseries, TV Film
|Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries, TV Film||Betting Odds|
|Kieran Culkin (Succession)||-200|
|Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso)||+300|
|O Yeong-Su (Squid Game)||+800|
|Bill Crudup (The Morning Show)||+1000|
|Mark Durplass (The Morning Show)||+2000|
- 2019 – Ben Whishaw (A Very English Scandal)
- 2020 – Stellan Skarsgard (Chernobyl)
- 2021 – John Boyega (Small Axe)
-200 betting favorite, Kieran Culkin plays Roman Roy, his father’s youngest son, characterized by his brashness and bravado.
After they stiff Jeremy Strong in the Best Actor category, Hollywood Foreign Press voters will make it up to Succession by naming Culkin Best Supporting Actor in a TV Series (Drama).
Plus, every entertainment expert who knows about these things says it’s Kieran’s time. Hey – most of the time, being a winning bettor is knowing from whom to take advice! My people say Culkin has this Golden Globe in the bag, and I trust them! If you want to go in another direction, at least the other four nominees come with larger payouts.