2022 Golden Globe Awards Betting Odds – ‘Best Actor’ Categories

Golden Globe Awards 2022 Background

Awards season is officially here!

The 2022 Golden Globes will kick things off on Sunday, January 9, followed by the SAG Awards, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTAs, and Oscars – with roughly a million smaller awards shows sprinkled between those events.

Think of it as March Madness for fans of entertainment betting.

As the first show of the season, the Golden Globes – voted on and awarded by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association — will set the tone for the year and give handicappers a better idea of what to expect in subsequent ceremonies. Each group of voters has unique tendencies, but the top nominees tend to succeed across the board.

On this page, we’ll be looking at the 2022 Golden Globes betting lines for the following “Best Actor” categories:

  • Best Actor – Motion Picture Drama
  • Best Actor – Motion Picture Musical or Comedy
  • Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture
  • Best Television Actor – Drama Series
  • Best Television Actor – Musical/Comedy Series
  • Best Supporting Actor – Television
2022 Golden Globes Betting

Our series of 2022 Golden Globes betting blogs will cover the same six categories as above for actresses, plus Best Picture (Comedy and Drama), Best Television Series (Comedy and Drama), Best Director, and more!

MyBookie is offering action on all the categories discussed in this series of Golden Globes blogs!
Place Your 2022 Golden Globe Awards Bets at MyBookie

MyBookie is one of the top entertainment betting sites and will continue its coverage of all the major ceremonies as the awards season progresses.

Crucial Betting News!

Before we dive into the six Best Actor categories, we must address recent events that promise to impact Golden Globes wagers significantly. This year’s show won’t have a red carpet, lengthy appreciation speeches, or even an audience present at the Beverly Hilton in Los Angeles. It won’t even be on television!

Due to recent controversies over a lack of diversity among the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (and allegations of corrupt voting processes), the entertainment industry’s brightest stars are boycotting the event. The uproar was triggered by February’s Los Angeles Times investigation that revealed none of the association’s 87-member voting base was Black.

In response, NBC decided to drop this year’s Golden Globes broadcast.

“We continue to believe that the HFPA is committed to meaningful reform,” said the network in a statement. “However, change of this magnitude takes time and work, and we feel strongly that the HFPA needs time to do it right. As such, NBC will not air the 2022 Golden Globes. Assuming the organization executes on its plan, we are hopeful we will be in a position to air the show in January 2023.”

The HFPA is in damage control mode after celebrities such as Scarlette Johansson and Tom Cruise have publicly condemned the organization – the latter even returned his three Golden Globe statuettes.

On Monday, they unveiled pa list of reforms.

“Regardless of the next air date of the Golden Globes, implementing transformational changes as quickly — and as thoughtfully — as possible remains the top priority for our organization. We invite our partners in the industry to the table to work with us on the systemic reform that is long overdue, both in our organization as well as within the industry at large.”

This is critical information for bettors for three reasons:

  1. Issues of race and diversity will be at the forefront of HFPA voters’ minds when they cast their ballots.
  2. Similarly, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association added 21 new journalists to its voting pool. The group comprises 48% women, 29% identifying as Black, 29% Hispanic, 24% Asian, and 19% Middle Eastern or North African. Given the current climate around the awards show, they’ll want to make their presence felt on Sunday.
  3. The Golden Globes are known to favor big-name celebrities in hopes that the most prestigious figures in Hollywood will attend their awards. This is no longer a factor – nor even a possibility.

Best of all: no slogging through hours of self-serving emotional celebrity diatribes or commercials to see if we’ve won our bets! The results will post online Sunday night.

2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Actor (Drama)

Best Actor (Drama) Betting Odds
Will Smith (King Richard) -230
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) +270
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth) +900
Mahershala Ali (Swan Song) +1200
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos) +1400
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
  • 2020 – Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
  • 2021 – Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

After watching several movies (in which I had little interest) and scouring the internet for the opinions of entertainment handicappers and awards shows “experts,” I’m confident that the 2022 Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a Motion Picture Drama is a two-man race.

The betting lines suggest the same.

Will Smith is the heavy favorite for his depiction of Richard Williams in King Richard; Benedict Cumberbatch is Smith’s primary competition at +270 odds, but an unlikely spoiler.

King Richard

King Richard is a biopic chronicling Richard Williams’ successful journey to mold his two daughters, Venus and Serena, into tennis superstars. It received a 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating from the critics and a 98% audience score. Will Smith’s performance is one of the key elements receiving praise.

So, he would probably win the Golden Globe for this category regardless (deservedly so). However, when you factor in the issues plaguing the Hollywood Foreign Press, the likelihood of an upset decreases dramatically.

Smith stars in a picture about an African American family from Compton, California, overcoming seemingly insurmountable odds and succeeding at a level never-before-seen in tennis — a sport with minimal Black representation at the time.

To deny Will Smith his Best Actor Award, given the current narrative and subject matter of the movie, would confirm every criticism of the HFPA. If the Golden Globes are going to regain their former status, they better avoid such a moronic public relations disaster.

The Bet
Will Smith
-230

2022 Golden Globe Awards-Best Actor Musical/Comedy

Best Actor (Musical/Comedy) Betting Odds
Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick…Boom!) -280
Peter Dinklage (Cyrano) +330
Leonardo DiCaprio (Don’t Look Up) +1000
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza) +1200
Anthony Ramos (In the Heights) +1200
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Christian Bale (Vice)
  • 2020 – Taron Egerton (Rocketman)
  • 2021 – Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

The betting odds for Best Actor in a Motion Picture Comedy or Musical are similarly top-heavy to the drama category. However, I see more potential for an upset – and not just from Peter Dinklage at +330, the second-most-favored nominee.

Andrew Garfield (-280)

Andrew Garfield had a tremendous year, starring in Tick, Tick…Boom!, as well as making an earth-shattering surprise appearance in the biggest superhero movie in recent history. I’d call it a cameo; only he was much more involved in the second half of that Marvel film (which I’m avoiding naming to avoid spoilers) than I expected.

While this award is strictly for his role in Tick, Tick…Boom!, narrative is always a critical factor in voting. His performance in the aforementioned cameo received such rave reviews; it appears to have boosted how he’s being perceived right now.

Tick, Tick…Boom! is a musical directed by Lin-Manuel Miranda (of Hamilton fame). It follows Garfield’s character Jon – based on Jonathan Larson, the creator of Rent – who is waiting tables in New York while chasing his dream to be a famous theater composer.

Hollywood loves nothing more than depictions of itself. Making a movie about making a movie / succeeding in the entertainment industry is the quickest way to be flooded with all sorts of little gold trophies.

The Bet
Andrew Garfield
-280

Leonardo DiCaprio (+1000)

If Andrew Garfield doesn’t win for Best Actor in a Comedy or Musical, I think Leonardo DiCaprio, not Peter Dinklage, will be the beneficiary. Don’t Look Up, a satire about a world-ending comet on a collision course with Earth, is the hottest movie going right now.

The Netflix comedy broke the streaming platform’s record for most viewing hours, with 152.59 million hours watched between December 24 and January 2. Stories reporting on the film’s success give it some serious added momentum at precisely the right time.

Don’t Look Up is also an allegory for climate change, a cause that’s near and dear to Hollywood’s heart. If the 2022 Golden Globes were being broadcast like normal, the prospect of Leo attending the festivities and giving an hour-long speech about the environment would make DiCaprio a shoo-in for the award.

Still, at +1000 odds, I like Leonardo Dicaprio’s chances — even under the current circumstances.

The Bet
Leonardo DiCaprio
+1000

2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actor Betting Odds
Ciaran Hinds (Belfast) +120
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) +150
Jamie Dornan (Belfast) +500
Troy Kotsur (CODA) +550
Ben Affleck (The Tender Bar) +2500
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
  • 2020 – Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood)
  • 2021 – Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)

I won’t pretend to have watched any of these movies, so I’m not going to spend too much time on the Supporting Actor category. As for the diversity factor possibly affecting voting optics, all five nominees are white.

From my research, I can tell you that Belfast is the most critically acclaimed film represented amongst these supporting actors. However, Ciaran Hinds and Jamie Dornan were both nominated for their roles in that movie, potentially splitting the Belfast vote.

I’m leaning towards Kodi Smit-McPhee – though, admittedly, it has nothing to do with the actual performances being judged.

The Power of the Dog and Belfast lead the Golden Globes nominations with seven apiece. According to the experts, Belfast is favored to win Best Picture and will probably take either Best Screenplay or Best Director.

That means the HFPA voters will look to award The Power of the Dog some consolation trophies in lesser categories – one of which, I predict, will be Best Supporting Actor.

The Bet
Kodi Smit-McPhee
+150

Best Actor in A TV Series – Musical/Comedy

Best Actor in a TV Series (Musical/Comedy) Betting Odds
Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso) -500
Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) +600
Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) +700
Nicholas Hoult (The Great) +1500
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish) +2000
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Michael Douglas (The Kominsky Method)
  • 2020 – Rammy Youssef (Ramy)
  • 2021 – Jason Sudeikis (Ted Lasso)

I am on record as a Ted Lasso superfan. And if you read my article about the comedy’s inevitable dominance at the 2021 Emmy’s, you probably won lots of money.

The Jason Sudeikis project about an American football coach managing an English Premier League club swept the Emmys and will see some of that success rollover to the Golden Globes.

None of these other nominees has as strong a claim to this category as Sudeikis. The –500 favorite is a lock to take home the award for Best Actor in a Comedy Television Series.

The Bet
Jason Sudeikis
-500

Best Actor in A TV Series – Drama

Best Actor in a TV Series (Drama) Betting Odds
Jeremy Strong (Succession) -225
Brian Cox (Pose) +400
Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game) +500
Billy Porter (Pose) +800
Omar Sy (Lupin) +1400
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Richard Madden (Bodyguard)
  • 2020 – Brian Cox (Succession)
  • 2021 – Josh O’Connor (The Crown)

From the looks of things, Succession will be one of the biggest winners at the 2021 Golden Globes. The television drama airs on HBO and is about a powerful media and entertainment family’s struggles after their father’s stepping down leaves power vacuum and uncertainty in the company.

Jeremy Strong

Jeremy Strong plays Kendall Roy, Logan Roy’s second-oldest son. He’s one of the leading contenders to be his father’s successor. Strong, a –225 favorite to win the 2022 Golden Globe Award for Best Actor in a TV Series (Drama), won a Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series in 2020.

The third season of Succession has a 96% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes. You know how it is when these beloved HBO shows get hot: they sweep up all the television awards!

Lee Jung-Jae (+500)

That said, I wouldn’t sleep on Lee Jung-Jae for his role in Squid Game. After being released on Netflix in September, the South Korean survival drama generated an insane amount of buzz over the last half of 2021. It’s the streaming platform’s most-watched series ever and was the top-viewed program in 94 countries.

I think the Hollywood Foreign Press members will favor the foreign thriller and award South Korean actor Lee Jung-Jae for his role in the internationally acclaimed drama. More importantly, at +500 odds, the underdog offers by far the most betting value in the category.

The Bet
Lee Jung-Jae
+500

Best Supporting Actor Series, Miniseries, TV Film

Best Supporting Actor in a Series, Miniseries, TV Film Betting Odds
Kieran Culkin (Succession) -200
Brett Goldstein (Ted Lasso) +300
O Yeong-Su (Squid Game) +800
Bill Crudup (The Morning Show) +1000
Mark Durplass (The Morning Show) +2000
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Ben Whishaw (A Very English Scandal)
  • 2020 – Stellan Skarsgard (Chernobyl)
  • 2021 – John Boyega (Small Axe)

-200 betting favorite, Kieran Culkin plays Roman Roy, his father’s youngest son, characterized by his brashness and bravado.

After they stiff Jeremy Strong in the Best Actor category, Hollywood Foreign Press voters will make it up to Succession by naming Culkin Best Supporting Actor in a TV Series (Drama).

Plus, every entertainment expert who knows about these things says it’s Kieran’s time. Hey – most of the time, being a winning bettor is knowing from whom to take advice! My people say Culkin has this Golden Globe in the bag, and I trust them! If you want to go in another direction, at least the other four nominees come with larger payouts.

The Bet
Kieran Culkin
-200
Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.

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