2022 Golden Globe Awards Betting Odds – ‘Best Picture’ Categories

Golden Globe Awards 2022 Background

It’s time to get your picks in, fans of entertainment betting! On Sunday, January 9, the 79th annual 2022 Golden Globe Awards kicks off the awards show season.

Over the next two months, the top entertainment betting sites will offer odds on these events:

  • The British Academy of Film and Television Arts Awards (BAFTAs),
  • the Screen Actors Guild Awards,
  • the Academy Awards (Oscars), and
  • the Critics’ Choice Awards.

Sunday’s Golden Globes will set the tone for the awards shows that follow and provide a glimpse into how critics and Hollywood insiders are voting. That said, the different organizations have shown some unique tendencies.

For Example

The actor and actress categories are typically similar between the Golden Globes and Academy Awards. However, when it comes to judging films, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association – the group that selects Golden Globe winners – has a reputation for being more easily influenced by public sentiment and hype.

We’ll keep that in mind while analyzing the five Best Picture categories listed on this page.

You’ll find betting odds for these 2022 Golden Globes categories below:

  • Best Picture (Drama)
  • Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
  • Best Animated Feature
  • Best Foreign Language Film
  • Best Screenplay

Potential 2022 Golden Globes bettors must also remember the controversies plaguing the Hollywood Foreign Press Association at the moment – controversies that resulted in actors and actresses refusing to attend the ceremony and led to NBC canceling this year’s broadcast.

This year’s event at the Beverley Hilton will feature no red carpet, no audience, and no celebrity lectures about their latest cause.

If you’d like to read more about the scandal plaguing the Golden Globe Awards, check out our betting blog about the six Best Actor categories.

2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Picture (Drama)

Best Picture (Drama) Betting Odds
Belfast +100
The Power of the Dog +200
King Richard +330
Dune +1200
CODA +1600
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Bohemian Rhapsody
  • 2020 – 1917
  • 2021 – Nomadland

One of the best things about the 2022 Golden Globes being the first awards show of the season is that all the uncertainty results in lots of betting value. Perhaps no category demonstrates this better than Best Picture.

The two films with the longest odds, Dune at +1200 and CODA at +1600, were picked by many entertainment pundits to win the Golden Globe for Best Picture. Belfast has tons of supporters too, but it’s no sure thing. It’s definitely not the lock one would expect in a field with payouts of 12-to-1 or greater at the bottom.

If there’s even a slight chance of one of the enormous underdogs scoring the upset, they’re worth betting.

Remember, betting value is determined by comparing real-life probability to the implied probability given by the odds.
  • For example, Dune at +1200 has an implied probability of 7.69%.
  • Does Dune have a better than 8% likelihood of winning Best Picture?

Absolutely!

By the way, don’t sleep on The Power of the Dog either! The Netflix film tied Belfast for the most Golden Globe nominations and has received tons of praise from Hollywood critics.

Every film in this field of nominees has a decent shot at winning Best Picture.

So, while Belfast has the highest probability of winning the award, you’d be a fool not to take a flier or two on the options offering more substantial payouts!
Bet on the 2022 Golden Globes at MyBookie!

2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Picture (Musical/Comedy)

Best Picture (Musical/Comedy) Betting Odds
West Side Story -150
Licorice Pizza +200
tick, tick…BOOM! +750
Don’t Look Up +900
Cyrano +2000
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Green Book
  • 2020 – Once Upon a Time…Hollywood
  • 2021 – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

In my previous blog about the Best Actress categories, I said West Side Story is destined for a massive trophy haul this awards season. It’s directed by Stephen Spielberg, a musical, and touches on subject matter that is especially relevant right now.

Not only are issues of race and diversity at the forefront of public and political discourse these days, but they’re also the very issues at the heart of the celebrity boycott of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association’s awards ceremony.

West Side Story is rightfully the favorite to win Best Picture for a Comedy or Musical.

The Bet
West Side Story
-150

However, there are multiple competitors with realistic chances of beating Spielberg’s flick.

Licorice Pizza is garnering rave reviews from critics and has the potential to be this award season’s surprise trophy magnet. It wasn’t as popular with audiences; the film has a 92% Rotten Tomatoes rating from critics versus a 71% audience score. But Hollywood insiders live to appreciate artistic movies that us unsophisticated civilians “just didn’t understand.”

The Bet
Licorice Pizza
+200

Tick, Tick…BOOM! is another contender that checks off all the boxes. It’s a musical about the creation of the famous theater musical Rent. Andrew Garfield gave an excellent performance that earned him a Best Actor nomination; it’s about the entertainment industry (there’s nothing Hollywood loves more than films about itself); it’s directed by Lin Manuel Miranda (of Hamilton fame).

The Bet
Tick, Tick…BOOM!
+750

Then there’s Don’t Look Up. Of all the nominees in this field, Netflix’s satirical comedy starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, and Meryl Streep has the most in common with this category’s last two winners: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm and Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood.

Don’t Look Up has rustled some jimmies on both sides of the political spectrum for its depictions of right-wing climate deniers and vapid performative liberals. People who’ve felt personally targeted by the film have loudly complained that the picture’s climate change message was too on the nose.

I think the Adam McCay production has betting value because of all the attention it has generated.

Don’t Look Up broke Netflix’s weekly viewership record after its December 24 release, clocking 152.6 million hours watched for the week ending on January 2.

As I mentioned previously, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is more susceptible to cultural phenomena than other governing bodies.

The comedy won’t win an Oscar, but the fact that it was the hottest topic of conversation in cinema as voting for the Golden Globes happened means the star-studded doomsday film has a legitimate shot at winning Best Picture (Comedy or Musical).

The Bet
Don’t Look Up
+900

2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Animated Feature

Best Animated Feature Betting Odds
Flee +120
Luca +200
Encanto +250
Raya and the Last Dragon +1200
My Sunny Maad +1500
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
  • 2020 – Missing Link
  • 2021 – Soul

I’m an adult without any kids, so full disclosure: I’ve seen none of these animated films. However, I’ve read dozens of critics’ reviews and watched an unfathomable number of 2022 Golden Globes prediction videos from self-proclaimed awards show experts. So, I have a decent understanding of the category.

Based on my research, this is an odd grouping of movies. Yes, they’re all animated, but that’s where the similarities end – at least as it pertains to Flee versus the others.

Flee

It’s an animated documentary about a man who, on the verge of marrying his husband, feels compelled for the first time to share the story of his escape from his home country of Afghanistan as a refugee.

By all accounts, Flee is one of the most outstanding documentaries of all time.

  • It has a 98% Rotten Tomatoes rating from critics and a 92% audience score.
  • It’s won almost every film festival or award for which it’s been nominated.
  • The animated documentary won the Sundance Film Festival’s Grand Jury Prize in the World Cinema Documentary category.
  • At the Annecy International Animation Film Festival, it won Best Feature Film.

So, how on Earth does one judge Flee — an actual living human being’s harrowing refugee’s journey – against a movie about a young sea monster boy on a “life-changing summer adventure” through the Italian Riviera? Or, how about a young girl searching for her “magical gift” before the magic in her family disappears altogether?

Do you know how insane the Hollywood Foreign Press Association would have to be to give this award to one of the traditional children’s animations while Flee is an option?

It would be the final nail in the coffin for the Golden Globes, which is already hanging by a thread.

Bet the house on Flee at +120. I can’t believe MyBookie is offering better-than-even odds.

Bet on the 2022 Golden Globes at MyBookie!

2022 Golden Globe Awards – Best Foreign Language Film

Best Foreign Language Film Betting Odds
Drive My Car -125
A Hero +300
The Hand of God +400
Parallel Mothers +1000
Compartment No. 6 +1400
Past Winners:
  • 2019 – Roma
  • 2020 – Parasite
  • 2021 – Minari

I’m trusting the experts on this one. I haven’t found a single entertainment pundit who has picked anything other than Drive My Car for this award.

The Bet
Drive My Car
-125

However, a few mentioned Parallel Mothers as having an outside chance of scoring the upset.

Why not put a few dollars on the +1000 Spanish film starring Penelope Cruz?

From what I’ve read, it’s a far more enjoyable movie. I saw Drive My Car described as a slow, three-hour art-house film that only movie snobs could appreciate. The Golden Globes voters are typically less pretentious than the Oscars, so at 10-to-1 odds, it’s worth taking a shot at it.

The Bet
Parallel Mothers
+1000
Will Cormier / Author

Will Cormier is a sports and political betting writer living in downtown Las Vegas, Nevada. When he’s not wandering around the streets of the Arts District aimlessly, a lifetime of pessimism and paranoia has made Will perfectly suited for handicapping politics. Cormier tries to analyze current events as objectively as possible – a strategy that often enrages loyalists on both the right and the left. When he’s not covering major upcoming elections, Will enjoys writing about basketball, football, and MMA from a betting perspective. He also loves dogs, ice cream sundaes, the movie “Stomp the Yard,” and long walks on the beach.

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