2022 NBA Conference Finals Series Prop Bets

NBA Conference Finals Prop Betting

The 2021-22 NBA season is down to the final four. While we obviously don’t yet know what will transpire over the next few weeks, we do know that each conference will crown a new champion.

The Phoenix Suns were ousted over the weekend in upset fashion by the Dallas Mavericks in one of the most shocking outcomes we’ve seen in quite a while. Phoenix won 64 games this season and looked like the league’s best team wire-to-wire, but Luka Doncic and the Mavs went into the desert and came away with a stunning triumph in Game 7 over the weekend. The defending league champs were beaten earlier in the same day. Milwaukee The Bucks, who were sorely missing the injured Khris Middleton, ultimately didn’t have enough offensive firepower to get past the Boston Celtics’ well-rounded, versatile attack.

As usual, NBA betting sites have you covered with countless prop offerings ahead of the upcoming conference finals. Which NBA conference finals series prop bets are worth your time?

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Heat To Win Game 1, Celtics To Win Series (+230)

The Eastern Conference Finals should be a fun matchup between a couple of teams that are no strangers to this stage. The Heat and Celtics last met in the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals in the Disney World bubble. Miami emerged victorious that year, but oddsmakers like Boston to exact some revenge this time around.

One unique prop offering that stands out is this one.

You can get +230 odds on the Heat to hold serve in Tuesday’s Game 1, but the Celtics to ultimately go on and win the series. While the Celtics are favored to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2010, oddsmakers actually like the Heat to win Game 1. Miami is listed as a slight two-point favorite at home in this one.

So far in these playoffs, the Heat are 2-0 in Game 1s. The Celtics are 1-1 after losing on their home floor in an upset fashion to the Bucks in Game 1 of the conference semis. We know what happened from there, however, with Boston going on to claim four of the final six games of the set to advance.

A similar outcome in this series is very much in play. The Heat should be the more well-rested side after eliminating the 76ers in the second round last Friday. The Celtics, meanwhile, have a quick turnaround after beating the Bucks in Game 7 at home on Sunday afternoon. With home-court advantage in the series, it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see the Heat use the Celtics’ potentially tired legs against them to take Game 1.

In the end, however, I believe Boston is the better team, top-to-bottom. Miami will struggle to generate consistent offense against the Celtics’ stingy defense, especially with Kyle Lowry’s status still uncertain. There is good value here with Miami to win Game 1 and Boston to win the series at the current +230 odds.

Total Number of Game Sevens Odds
Zero +105
One +115
Two +700

As you can see for this NBA conference finals series prop, the odds are stacked heavily against this round producing a pair of winner-take-all games. This year’s first round was a relative disappointment that didn’t feature a single Game 7. Two of the four second-round series went the distance, however.

Interestingly enough, the odds actually favor the Mavericks-Warriors Western Conference Finals clash to require the full seven games.

You can get +180 odds on Dallas-Golden State to go seven, compared to +200 (six), +260 (five), and +550 on a four-game sweep. The Warriors are favored to get past the Mavs and into the Finals, but Dallas did beat Golden State in three of four regular-season showdowns.

Fatigue could be an issue for the Mavericks, however. Doncic is essentially a one-man show on offense, and it’s worth wondering how much longer he can keep operating at this level while keeping Dallas afloat. Golden State’s ultra-experienced defense will make Doncic work for it, as well.

After his heroics against the Suns, it’s worth wondering how much Luka has left in the tank for another grueling matchup with the Warriors. Both conference finals series requiring the full seven games is rare, of course. The last time the Western Finals went to seven was in 2018 when Golden State outlasted Houston. That was also the last year the East went seven when the Cavaliers got past the Celtics. Before that, the last time we had two game sevens in the conference final round was 1979.

Both conference final matchups are compelling, which isn’t always the case. That alone makes taking a stab at the +700 conference finals odds on a pair of game sevens awfully alluring. If you want to play it safe, zero game sevens at +105 is perfectly reasonable, as well.

Eastern Conference Finals Spread

Game Outcome
Heat +1.5 Games -125
Celtics -1.5 Games +100

As you can see, this Eastern Conference Finals series prop bet has Boston at even-money to beat Miami by at least two games in the series. That actually gives the Celtics a decent amount of wriggle room. As long as the Celtics in the series in fewer than seven games, your bet on Boston to cover the series spread will cash.

Please Note:
A wager on Miami at +125 is simply a bet on the Heat to either win the series outright or take Boston the distance.

While NBA oddsmakers and pundits have all been fairly down on the Heat all year long, let’s not forget this team still finished as the top seed in the East with 53 wins for a reason. Miami has one of the best coaches in the league in Erik Spoelstra, in addition to a veteran-heavy roster. It’s easy to forget, but the Heat were in the NBA Finals less than two full years ago.

As mentioned, however, I think the Celtics might be the best team still standing. Boston is a league-best 24-6 since February 1st, not including playoffs. Boston swept a Brooklyn team many believed was capable of winning it all this year back in the first round before dethroning Giannis Antetokounmpo and the defending champs.

At this point, it’s very clear Ime Udoka’s Celtics are no fluke.

The safest bet here is for Boston to win the series and cover the 1.5-game spread at +100. Take the value in those odds and run for the hills.

Western Conference Finals Spread

Team Odds
Mavericks +1.5 Games -135
Warriors -1.5 Games +110

It’s the same thing in the Western Conference, albeit with slightly different odds. The upstart Mavs are listed at -135 to keep the series to within 1.5 games, while the Warriors are at +110 to win it by at least a couple of games. Golden State is still a heavy -225 favorite to ultimately win the series, but oddsmakers aren’t too bullish on Golden State’s chances of winning it going away.

This Warriors-Mavs series may look awfully similar to some of the fun Warriors-Rockets series we saw in previous years.

Doncic will play the James Harden role as Dallas’ first, second, and third offensive option. Dallas has committed to playing a small-ball, five-out style of offense around Luka. That proved fatal to Utah and Phoenix who ultimately failed to adjust with defenses built around more traditional centers. Golden State, with Draymond Green largely manning the middle, is much better equipped to defend that style.

Much like they did with Chris Paul in the last series, the Mavs will almost surely try to hunt Stephen Curry and exploit his defensive weaknesses in this one. In the last meeting between the teams, Jason Kidd schemed for the Mavs to send two defenders at Curry every time the Warriors attempted to set a screen to free him up offensively. In the end, Curry finished the fourth quarter of that game with zero shot attempts as the Mavericks effectively took him out of the game.

While I think the Celtics are clear favorites out East, that isn’t the case in the West.

Golden State should be good enough to get past Dallas, but the Mavericks did just beat a team that won 64 regular-season games in the last round. I think the smart money is on Luka and the Mavs to find a way to keep this series close. Even if they don’t ultimately pull off the upset, Dallas at -135 to keep it within a two-game final margin looks like the best way to attack this Western Conference Finals series prop bet.


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Taylor Smith / Author

Taylor is a sports writer based in Southern California. While he primarily specializes in basketball, baseball and football, he will also dabble in things like soccer and politics from time to time. He has lived in just about every corner of the United States at one point or another, and he has been covering sports and sports betting for the better part of a decade. Taylor currently lives in Long Beach with his fiancé and their two cats.

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