NFL MVP Odds Update
It’s the middle of July, which means NFL training camps will begin in earnest in about a week. We’ll get our first taste of real-life NFL action on Thursday, August 4th, when the Las Vegas Raiders will take on the Jacksonville Jaguars in the annual Hall of Fame Game.
The 2022-23 campaign won’t begin until about a month later when the Los Angeles Rams welcome the Buffalo Bills to SoFi Stadium in the official season opener. This is a potential Super Bowl 57 preview, of course. The Bills are actually listed as the betting favorite to win it all at most football betting sites, as of now. The Rams – fresh off of their first championship in over two decades – are among the favorites to repeat as NFC champs in ’22.
The race for NFL MVP this season should be a fun one, too. Aaron Rodgers ultimately beat out Tom Brady on his way to his fourth career and second consecutive trophy last season.
With the Bills favored to win the Super Bowl, Josh Allen is unsurprisingly listed as the early favorite to win MVP, too. Here are the fully updated NFL MVP odds, as of mid-July.
2022 NFL MVP Betting Odds
Brady’s MVP Odds Surge (+1200 -> +800)
Tom Brady had just the fifth-best NFL MVP odds of any player when we last checked just after the draft in April. However, the future Hall-of-Famer is now sitting at +800 to win it next season, which puts him behind only Allen at the top. Brady surpassed all of Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert…but why?
Brady showed absolutely no signs of aging, finishing with over 5,300 yards passing with 43 touchdowns across 17 regular-season starts for the Buccaneers. Let’s not forget the 44-year-old actually retired this offseason, only to announce his dramatic return a measly 41 days later.
Tampa Bay did lose the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, and OJ Howard this offseason, but the vast majority of the team’s offensive talent is still in place. We’ll see whether the offense will remain as dynamic following Bruce Arians’ own retirement, but something tells me they’ll be just fine. Chris Godwin is expected to return at some point early in the season, while Russell Gage was signed away from the Falcons for additional depth in the receiving corps.
There doesn’t seem to be any one reason for the massive jump in Brady’s NFL MVP odds over the course of this offseason, but the narrative angle should play in his favor. This man will turn 45 the day before the Hall of Fame Game. We’ve simply never seen a player in any major American sport continue to defy Father Time the way he has.
Watson’s NFL MVP Odds Tank (+2000 -> +4000)
Frankly, it’s a little surprising to see Deshaun Watson’s NFL MVP betting odds still as favorable as they are at +4000. There is a very real chance we won’t see the Browns’ new QB1 on the field at any point this season.
The NFL is still seeking to suspend Watson after he was accused of sexual misconduct by over two dozen women. The allegations first came to light in March of 2021. Just last week, Watson’s former team, the Texans, reached financial settlements with 30 of Watson’s accusers after it was reported the franchise “enabled” the star QB’s seedy off-the-field actions.
In spite of it all, the Browns still traded a boatload of future first-round picks to Houston in exchange for Watson this past March. Cleveland then immediately signed the former Clemson standout to a fully-guaranteed five-year, $230 million extension.
The Browns claimed to have done their due diligence on Watson’s background before making the deal. The NFL is reportedly pushing for an indefinite suspension that could last at least one full season, which would obviously keep Watson off the field through 2022-23.
Burrow Holding Steady (+1200)
You’d think one of the brightest young quarterbacks in the NFL would make for a natural MVP favorite the year after leading his team to a shocking Super Bowl appearance. However, Joe Burrow has just the sixth-best NFL MVP odds of any player at +1200, as of this writing.
Nobody expected the Bengals to get anywhere close to Super Bowl 56, yet Cincinnati came awfully close to upsetting the Rams in the big game that night. Burrow’s Bengals ultimately fell short of their goal, and oddsmakers are a bit shy to buy Cincy as a legit contender again in 2022-23. The Bengals’ run to the Super Bowl was so out of left field that nobody really knows what to expect from this team moving forward.
Protecting Burrow has been an issue ever since he entered the league back in 2020. The LSU product has been sacked a whopping 83 times in just 26 regular-season games, which is an astounding number.
If you’re a buyer in the Bengals as a team that’s here to stay, why not take a stab at Burrow’s +1200 NFL MVP betting odds? An MVP is likely in his future if he continues his upward trajectory, so who’s to say he can’t win it in 2022-23?
Henry, Taylor, Remain Long Shots (+5000)
It takes a truly special season for a non-quarterback to win MVP. We still haven’t seen a player at any non-QB position win NFL MVP since Adrian Peterson did so in 2012. All he did that season was rush for 2,097 yards with 12 touchdowns across 16 games for the Vikings.
Henry’s 2021 campaign was derailed by a foot injury, though he did return for the playoffs. Taylor actually finished second in Offensive Player of the Year voting behind Cooper Kupp, who also finished third in the MVP race behind Rodgers and Brady. Taylor has a breakout season for the Colts, rushing for 1,811 yards with 18 touchdowns on 332 attempts. All three marks led the NFL.
However, both star running backs face long +5000 NFL MVP odds entering the 2022 campaign. Henry is built like a truck, but the 28-year-old averaged just 4.3 yards per attempt across eight games last term. That was his worst mark since his second year as a pro, so it’s worth wondering whether the huge workloads between 2018 and 2020 are finally starting to catch up with him.
Taylor is still only 23, however, and he should remain the focal point of Indianapolis’ offense. This year, however, the Colts’ passing game should be more prolific. They replaced Carson Wentz with Matt Ryan this offseason, which should help take some pressure off of Taylor. If that’s the case, though, Taylor may have a difficult time matching his incredible production from 2021.
I’d bet on Taylor before Henry at the same odds, but it’s still hard to imagine anyone other than a quarterback taking home the hardware at the season’s end.
2022-23 NFL MVP Odds
Josh Allen’s MVP to Lose?
It’s early, but Bills QB Josh Allen is the NFL MVP betting favorite. This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise considering Allen’s team is the early favorite to win Super Bowl 57. Buffalo is at +650 to win the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history. They’re also +330 favorites to win the AFC for the first time in nearly 30 years.
So, Allen will have to deal with plenty of expectations this year. The former Wyoming Cowboy was among the favorites for MVP all of last year, but he never really gained much momentum in the end. In 17 games, Allen completed better than 63 percent of his throws for 4,407 yards with 36 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The Bills won the AFC East title by one game over the Patriots, but Allen’s overall numbers were disappointing compared to his breakout 2020 year.
Happiness. Josh Allen introduces first round draft pick to Buffalo. Welcome 🙌 pic.twitter.com/fS6LALIzv1
— McLoven Buffalo (@jawsoflifesj) April 29, 2022
However, his memorable showing in the Divisional Round of last year’s playoffs has many thinking 2022 could finally be the Bills’ year. The Chiefs got worse this offseason, and few seem to believe the AFC is really the Bengals’ to lose. The Bills appear to be the heirs to the throne, and this looks like their best chance to finally seize it.
Buffalo also can’t afford to lose games to teams like the Jaguars, as they did last season. If the Bills live up to expectations and finish the season with the best record in the AFC, Allen’s MVP case will likely speak for itself.
Can Mahomes Bounce Back?
2021-22 wasn’t the Chiefs’ best year, yet they still came to within a game of their third consecutive trip to the Super Bowl. Any team in the league would kill to have a “down year” and still come fairly close to winning a championship.
Kansas City was essentially forced to ship Tyreek Hill out of town for money reasons, so he’s now in Miami. The team will remain in the thick of things in the AFC as long as Patrick Mahomes is taking the snaps, but his weaponry isn’t quite as impressive as it has been over the past few years. 2022 could prove to be Mahomes’ biggest test since taking over as the starter.
True or False?✍️
Justin Herbert will finish his career with more MVPs than Patrick Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/KMUUv81doq
— FanDuel (@FanDuel) May 2, 2022
Of course, there’s no reason to believe Mahomes won’t pass that test with flying colors, as he’s done with everything else in his pro career to this point.
The former MVP still threw for over 4,800 yards with 37 touchdowns last season. His 13 INTs were a career-high, however, and the Chiefs won’t have it easy in a reloaded AFC West that now features three other legitimate playoff-caliber teams. Whether Mahomes can continue to put up gaudy numbers without Hill in the mix remains to be seen. Adding Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling still gives the Chiefs some deep threats, but there isn’t another player in the league capable of fully replicating what Hill can do on the football field.
Until we see that the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t skipped a beat, I’ll be highly skeptical of Mahomes’ MVP case. For now, I would pass on his +850 NFL MVP odds.
Herbert’s Time to Shine?
Much like the Chiefs did in Mahomes’ early years, the Chargers are doing everything they possibly can to stack their roster with talent while their young QB is still on a rookie deal.
With Justin Herbert only due about $3 million in base salary in 2022, the Chargers have decided to go all-in. With the offense already largely stocked with talent, LAC’s brass went out and attempted to load up on star defenders this offseason.
Gotta protect Justin Herbert ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/jnEEferxVd
— PFF (@PFF) April 29, 2022
All he did last year as a second-year pro was top 5,000 yards passing with 38 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. The Chargers have had a nasty habit of blowing winnable games for years, which is exactly what they did in the season finale against the Raiders.
Regardless, your team’s future is bright if your 23-year-old QB is throwing for 5,000 yards against NFL defenses. The sky is really the limit here, both for Herbert and the Chargers. Expectations are sky-high for both LA-based teams entering 2022. With talented weaponry everywhere you look, there is no reason at all to believe Herbert won’t rank among the league leaders in most passing categories again this season.
If LA can push KC in the suddenly wide-open AFC West, Herbert will remain very much in the thick of the MVP race. At +1000, Herbert’s NFL MVP betting odds look awfully enticing.
Brady and Rodgers, Back Again
For a time, it looked as though there was an outside chance neither Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers would be back for 2022. Brady literally retired in January, while Rodgers was reportedly toying with the idea of walking away. If he didn’t leave the game, he may well have left the Packers in free agency.
Brady unretired in March, while Rodgers surprisingly decided to give it another go with the Packers. Brady is going to turn 45 years old in August, yet he still managed to finish second in MVP voting behind Rodgers a season ago. All Tom Terrific did last year was top 5,300 passing yards with 43 touchdowns for the loaded Buccaneers offense.
"From the bottom of my heart, it's an incredible honour!" ❤️
— Eurosport (@eurosport) April 24, 2022
A few of the names from last year’s roster are no longer with the team, but the core is still here. Unless Brady suffers a sharp and unexpected decline, I see no reason to believe he won’t rank among the league leaders in passing yards again this fall. The Bucs are also the favorites to win the NFC for the second time in three years.
As a result, Rodgers’ MVP candidacy looks just as uncertain as Mahomes’ entering the new season. If you want to bet on one of the elder statemen’s NFL MVP odds, make it Brady at +1200.
A Welcome Change of Scenery
Russell Wilson is the only MVP favorite that will be suiting up for a new team in 2022. Following an incredibly successful decade-long run in Seattle, Wilson now calls Denver home.
We’ll see if the new-look Broncos live up to the hype, but many have believed over the past couple of years that this team is really just a QB away from contending. Well, now they’ve got their QB. All Wilson did last year with an underwhelming Seahawks side was throw for 3,113 yards with 25 touchdowns to just six interceptions. The Seahawks were a run-first offense for his entire tenure, but he’ll now be operating under first-year head coach and former Packers OC Nathaniel Hackett.
Hackett has been instrumental in the Packers’ success over the past few seasons, so there’s a pretty good chance we see Wilson featured more heavily in his team’s offense this year. At this point, that’s probably music to Wilson’s ears.
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) May 2, 2022
There’s enough offensive talent on this team around him, too. The running game should thrive behind Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, while Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Tim Patrick is an excellent corps of receivers. Russ has never thrown for more than 4,212 yards in a season, but I like his chances of setting a new career-high this time around.
Reaching the top of a division that also features the Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders won’t be easy, but if the Broncos can do it, how can you not like Wilson’s +1200 NFL MVP betting odds? Don’t be surprised if his odds shorten considerably over the next several months.