Personally, I love to bet on sports all year round. But there is one time of the year that I always seem to make more money than the rest of the year, and that is in July!
It’s not a coincidence that I always crush souls in the summertime, as there are a lot of dynamics at play that help make July the best month of the year for sports bettors!
What Is the Best Month for Sports Betting?
With most other major sports like the NFL, NHL, and NBA being out of season, July is when Major League Baseball takes center stage. As a former sportsbook operator, I can tell you that baseball is the lowest hold game for the house, as it is very beatable, particularly during the dog days of summer.
In this article, we are going to highlight TheSportsGeek’s Top 5 reasons why July is the best month for sports bettors by zeroing in on Major League Baseball. Let’s get started by taking a look at how the looming trade deadline can affect your bets!
MLB Trade Deadline
Some sports leagues, like the NBA for example, go crazy at the trade deadline with lots of activity and franchise-changing deals being made. Whereas in other leagues, like the NFL, we don’t see very much in-season action when it comes to trades.
Major League Baseball falls somewhere in the middle, as we do see lots of impact players moved, but we rarely see too many Earth-shattering deals made midseason before the trade deadline.
The Major League Baseball trade deadline is August 2nd this year, which means that the teams that are going to be wheeling and dealing are going to make most of those moves during the month of July.
We don’t have to look back very far to see the potential impact of these deals, as last year, the World Series champion Atlanta Braves won the trade deadline, which allowed them to go on to win the world title a couple of months later.
It is impossible to perfectly predict which teams are going to be buying and which are going to be selling, but you need to keep a very close eye on any and all trades, as they can significantly change the competitive landscape of the league overnight.
This goes both ways, as we have teams loading up on talent, and we have other teams dumping salary and looking towards the future. Every year, we see teams rising and falling in July, and once you identify which direction a team is headed, you can take advantage of it by backing or fading these teams.
The Washington Nationals held an epic fire sale last year in July, and when all of the smoke cleared, they came out of the deadline by losing 13 of their next 15 games.
Tanking Teams
This next topic that I am going to highlight piggybacks on the previous trade deadline topic, as we see a lot of teams start to tank in July. Some of those tanking teams are like the Nationals last year who tanked because they traded away all of their best players. But teams tank in July for other reasons as well.
By July, we generally have a pretty good idea of who teams actually are. This year, for example, when you look at the teams that would make the playoffs from each league, there aren’t many that are going to surprise anyone. In the AL, the Yankees, Astros, Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox were all expected to be good, and are living up to that billing.
Over in the NL, most everyone expected the Dodgers, Braves, and Padres to be elite, and they have been just that. And when you look at the teams that we thought wouldn’t be competitive, most of them aren’t. Nobody is going to be shocked that the Orioles, Royals, Athletics, Nationals, Reds, or Rockies are sitting in last place.
July is where those struggling teams generally really hit a wall, as they realize that they aren’t going to realistically make the postseason and when wins are no longer a major part of the equation, we can see a lot of sustained losing. As ugly as things have been for teams like Reds, Royals, and A’s, you can be sure that things are going to get even worse the rest of the month.
It used to be that it was very rare to see teams lose north of 100 games in a season. But now that teams are intentionally tanking, which generally starts in the month of July, we almost always see at least one, and sometimes multiple, teams losing 100 games in a year. When teams are losing at that high of a rate, you can basically blind bet the other way and get paid.
Prospect Call Ups
As a fan, I absolutely love seeing the next generation of future stars get called up to the show. Seeing top prospects get their first shot at the Big Leagues is always exciting.
Players might scream that this is intentional service time manipulation, whereas the GMs are going to say that it is strategically based on the needs of the team, but whatever the true case may be, we always see a fresh crop of newcomers taking the field during the summer.
The J-Rod Show
Sometimes these young guns hit the ground running and provide an immediate boost to their team. Seattle Mariners prospect Julio Rodriguez is a perfect example of that, as J-Rod has quickly become a staple near the top of the Mariners lineup, and recently became the fastest player in MLB history to hit 15 home runs and steal 20 bases, needing only 81 games.
J-Rod was a consensus top-5 prospect entering this season, so most people expected him to be great, but just because you are highly touted, doesn’t mean you are going to be a needle mover right away in the majors.
It was actually Baltimore Orioles catching prospect Adley Rutschman, not Rodriguez, that was the top prospect on most scout’s big board coming into the season, and things haven’t gone very well for the hard-hitting backstop.
Rutschman Struggling In The Big Leagues
Unlike J-Rod, playing every day in the majors has been tough on Rutschman, as he is hitting just .214, with only 4 homers, and 11 RBI, in 38 games. Some of these young guys are going to boom and some are going to bust and keeping a close eye on them is key to making money when betting in July.
If teams are able to add a potential All-Star caliber player like Julio Rodriguez, that needs to be on your radar. And when potential stars like Adley Rutschman turn into a black hole in the lineup, you need to factor that into your plays as well.
Load Management
30 years ago, load management wasn’t a thing, as players played every day unless they were hurt. Those days are long gone now, as teams are always looking for ways to extend the shelf life of their best players. That’s not to say that some guys aren’t out there playing 160+ games a year, it does still happen, but that is now the exception, not the rule.
This might mean a starter misses his spot in the rotation once a month, or that a position player gets an extra day off here and there. The best teams will space these out to not negatively affect the on-field product too much, but some teams don’t care about winning at this point in the season and will sit several guys all at once.
Guys like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera aren’t able to play every day like they did a decade ago. And youngsters, like Mariner’s star prospect pitcher George Kirby, are held to inning count caps, and you are going to see him get pulled earlier than usual or skipped in the rotation, as Seattle tries to keep his arm fresh.
It can be difficult to predict when these extra days off are going to hit, which means you need to always check the lineup card for a game before making your bets. There is nothing worse than to see the starter you thought you were backing was a late scratch, or that their cleanup hitter is getting a day off after you make your bets.
Future’s Action
A futures bet is a catch-all term for a bet on something that is going to happen in the future.
July is a perfect time to make these bets, as you have a fairly clear picture of where these bets stand, and the odds are still attractive enough to bet them profitably.
After July comes and goes, most of these future’s bets are going to lose all of their value. Being able to have a ton of data to help guide your bets, while still having solid odds to bet on, is one of the top reasons why July is the best sports betting month of the year!
Conclusion
If you ask me, July sports betting is the highest value type of bet that you can make! With Major League Baseball roughly half of the way through the season, you have lots of information at your disposal to make informed wagers and the odds are as good as they are going to be the rest of the way out.
We are already well into the month, so you don’t want to waste another minute missing out on July sports betting, as it is some of the best action of the year! Thanks for reading and good luck betting on Major League Baseball this July!
