6 Reasons for Betting on Something Else Other Than the Super Bowl

I’ve made several wagers on the Super Bowl over the years, but once I started getting serious about betting on sports, I haven’t made as many Super bowl bets.

When I started focusing on only placing wagers on games that had value, the Super Bowl became just another game. When the lines on the Super Bowl offer value, I make a wager!

But I don’t make a bet when the lines have no value. You have plenty of other options to find value, so don’t try to force value on the Super Bowl just because it’s the biggest game of the year.

1. The Tightest Line of the Year

The only way to make a profit from betting on sports is by finding games and lines with value. Value means that the lines set by the sportsbooks and your handicapping don’t agree.

For example:

You handicap an NFL game, and your evaluation shows the home team is going to win by five points. You look at the lines and find a line that favors the home team by seven and a half points.

If your evaluation is correct in this situation, the game, and line offer value. You would make a bet on the road team and get seven and a half points, and if the home team wins by five points like your handicapping shows, you win the wager.

Please Note:

But if your handicapping shows the home team is going to win by seven points, the line of seven and a half points offers no value. And when a line doesn’t offer value, you don’t bet on the game.

The Super Bowl usually has one of the tightest lines of the year. A tight line means it’s rare to find enough value to make a wager. The online sportsbooks take more action on the Super Bowl than any other game of the year, so they do everything they can, including dedicating as many resources as they need to set a tight line.

2. Too Much Hype

When you evaluate and handicap sporting events, you use as much information as you can find. The problem with the Super Bowl is there’s too much information. With two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, the news media is trying to find things to write about and helps build more hype for the game than any other game of the year.

As a sports gambler:

You have to focus on the important things and ignore things that might lead to a mistake in your handicapping. Of course, you can’t afford to be swayed by hype, but it’s almost impossible to ignore all the hype leading up to the Super Bowl.

I try to ignore all of the hype leading up to the game, but I’ve been influenced by some of the hype and made bad decisions in the past. I eventually decided that I wasn’t going to bet on the big game anymore.

I still handicap the game, but I don’t place a bet unless there’s clear value.

And because the line is usually tight, even when I handicap the game and see some possible value, I probably missed something or was influenced too much by the hype.

3. Syndicates Moving the Line

Most sports bettors don’t know anything about gambling syndicates. But gambling syndicates play an important part in the lines for the biggest games of the year.

Please Note:

A gambling syndicate is a group of sports bettors who have a large bankroll, usually in the millions or tens of millions.

In most cases, a syndicate has one of the best handicappers in the world evaluating games and a group of investors providing the bankroll.

Here’s how a gambling syndicate can influence the lines:

The syndicate decides they want to bet on the home team, but the line is too tight. So early in the betting on the game, the syndicate places a large wager on the road team, which might be a million or more.

The sportsbooks see a big bet and move the line so they can take more bets on the other side and balance their book. Then the syndicate places the bet they really want for an even larger amount, like three or four million, on the home team.

The problem is that you don’t know when the syndicates are manipulating the line, so you don’t know when the line is tight and when it’s been influenced by a big syndicate.

To compete in this situation, you need to be one of the best handicappers in the world, and if you’re one of the best handicappers in the world, you’re not reading this post.

4. Super Bowl Props Make the Books Tons of Money

Sportsbooks offer more prop bets on the Super Bowl than any other game. You can place wagers on all kinds of things like who scores first, if there’s going to be a safety, who’s going to win the coin toss, etc.

I haven’t made a prop wager on any game in close to a decade.

And I don’t know any professional sports gamblers who make prop bets. Prop bets make sportsbooks a ton of money because you can’t find value on a prop bet.

For example:

A prop bet on who wins the coin toss is truly a 50/50 proposition. But you have to pay vig when you make a bet. So you have to bet 110 to win 100, and you win 50% of the time.

All prop bets are designed this way, so the books make a killing on them. I don’t make prop wagers because I can’t identify value. And you shouldn’t make prop wagers for the same reason.

5. Makes the Game Hard to Enjoy

I used to be a big NFL fan. I had a favorite team and a second team that I rooted for but wasn’t as big a fan of as my first team. But I had to stop being a fan when I got serious about winning as a sports gambler.

Please Note:

I rarely watch the Super Bowl now because I rarely place a wager on it, and I’m not a fan anymore. But if you’re still a fan, if you bet on the Super Bowl, it makes it hard to enjoy watching the game.

When I watch games as a sports gambler, I’m watching to see if my handicapping was correct and trying to learn how I can improve.

Every fan of sports who also bets on sports has to make a decision whether they want to keep being a fan or want to have a realistic chance to win as a gambler. Being a fan and a winning gambler rarely mix. Of course, if you decide you’d rather be a fan than a profitable gambler, it’s fine, but don’t expect to be able to do both.

And if you decide to focus on winning instead of being a fan, it takes a lot of enjoyment out of watching games like the Super Bowl.

6. Dozens of Better Options

Sportsbooks focus almost all of their resources on setting a profitable line on the Super Bowl. This is because the books take so much money in action on the Super Bowl they can’t afford to make mistakes. But there are other games they have to set lines for on the day of the big game and on the day before and the day after.

While the sportsbooks try to set good lines on other games:

They don’t focus as much on the other games because they don’t have as much risk. So when this happens, you have an opportunity to find value on one or more of these other games.

You have dozens of options to find good value on games close to the Super Bowl. First, of course, you have to bet on sports other than football.

There are plenty of NBA and NCAA basketball games, as well as NHL games you can handicap.

Instead of banging your head against the wall trying to handicap the Super Bowl, look for value on other games being played on the same day or on the day before or after the big game.

Conclusion

It seems like everyone wants to make a bet on the Super Bowl, but winning sports bettors focus on finding value. When a game doesn’t have value, you can’t afford to make a wager. And the Super Bowl doesn’t always offer value.

It’s also easy to get influenced by all of the hype leading up to the Super Bowl, which can negatively influence your handicapping.

However, if you are able to find that value, then said bets can definitely prove worthwhile! It’s why using an optimal sportsbook is so essential and that is double true when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl! If you find that value, we wish you great luck this weekend and hope it pays off for you!