I’ve made several wagers on the Super Bowl over the years, but once I started getting serious about betting on sports, I haven’t made as many Super bowl bets.
But I don’t make a bet when the lines have no value. You have plenty of other options to find value, so don’t try to force value on the Super Bowl just because it’s the biggest game of the year.
1. The Tightest Line of the Year
The only way to make a profit from betting on sports is by finding games and lines with value. Value means that the lines set by the sportsbooks and your handicapping don’t agree.
If your evaluation is correct in this situation, the game, and line offer value. You would make a bet on the road team and get seven and a half points, and if the home team wins by five points like your handicapping shows, you win the wager.
The Super Bowl usually has one of the tightest lines of the year. A tight line means it’s rare to find enough value to make a wager. The online sportsbooks take more action on the Super Bowl than any other game of the year, so they do everything they can, including dedicating as many resources as they need to set a tight line.
2. Too Much Hype
When you evaluate and handicap sporting events, you use as much information as you can find. The problem with the Super Bowl is there’s too much information. With two weeks between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl, the news media is trying to find things to write about and helps build more hype for the game than any other game of the year.
I try to ignore all of the hype leading up to the game, but I’ve been influenced by some of the hype and made bad decisions in the past. I eventually decided that I wasn’t going to bet on the big game anymore.
And because the line is usually tight, even when I handicap the game and see some possible value, I probably missed something or was influenced too much by the hype.
3. Syndicates Moving the Line
Most sports bettors don’t know anything about gambling syndicates. But gambling syndicates play an important part in the lines for the biggest games of the year.
In most cases, a syndicate has one of the best handicappers in the world evaluating games and a group of investors providing the bankroll.
The sportsbooks see a big bet and move the line so they can take more bets on the other side and balance their book. Then the syndicate places the bet they really want for an even larger amount, like three or four million, on the home team.
To compete in this situation, you need to be one of the best handicappers in the world, and if you’re one of the best handicappers in the world, you’re not reading this post.
4. Super Bowl Props Make the Books Tons of Money
Sportsbooks offer more prop bets on the Super Bowl than any other game. You can place wagers on all kinds of things like who scores first, if there’s going to be a safety, who’s going to win the coin toss, etc.
And I don’t know any professional sports gamblers who make prop bets. Prop bets make sportsbooks a ton of money because you can’t find value on a prop bet.
All prop bets are designed this way, so the books make a killing on them. I don’t make prop wagers because I can’t identify value. And you shouldn’t make prop wagers for the same reason.
5. Makes the Game Hard to Enjoy
I used to be a big NFL fan. I had a favorite team and a second team that I rooted for but wasn’t as big a fan of as my first team. But I had to stop being a fan when I got serious about winning as a sports gambler.
When I watch games as a sports gambler, I’m watching to see if my handicapping was correct and trying to learn how I can improve.
Every fan of sports who also bets on sports has to make a decision whether they want to keep being a fan or want to have a realistic chance to win as a gambler. Being a fan and a winning gambler rarely mix. Of course, if you decide you’d rather be a fan than a profitable gambler, it’s fine, but don’t expect to be able to do both.
And if you decide to focus on winning instead of being a fan, it takes a lot of enjoyment out of watching games like the Super Bowl.
6. Dozens of Better Options
Sportsbooks focus almost all of their resources on setting a profitable line on the Super Bowl. This is because the books take so much money in action on the Super Bowl they can’t afford to make mistakes. But there are other games they have to set lines for on the day of the big game and on the day before and the day after.
You have dozens of options to find good value on games close to the Super Bowl. First, of course, you have to bet on sports other than football.
Instead of banging your head against the wall trying to handicap the Super Bowl, look for value on other games being played on the same day or on the day before or after the big game.
It seems like everyone wants to make a bet on the Super Bowl, but winning sports bettors focus on finding value. When a game doesn’t have value, you can’t afford to make a wager. And the Super Bowl doesn’t always offer value.
However, if you are able to find that value, then said bets can definitely prove worthwhile! It’s why using an optimal sportsbook is so essential and that is double true when it comes to betting on the Super Bowl! If you find that value, we wish you great luck this weekend and hope it pays off for you!