7 Common Baseball Fallacies That Cost Gamblers Money

Baseball Fallacies

Fallacies are prevalent among the gambling public. Bad gamblers come to their conclusions about certain aspects of betting and spread that misinformation to every corner of the market.

Wise gamblers might know how to tune out these foolish ideas.

However, amateur gamblers can struggle to sift through all of the intel around the internet to learn how to place successful wagers. Baseball is a breeding ground for gambling fallacies due to the nature of the game. America’s Pastime is riddled with superstitions and preposterous claims about certain teams and players.

Because of this:
Many baseball bettors – especially subpar bettors – place bets for all the wrong reasons.

While some bold assertions have their rightful place in the baseball gambling world, others should be cast aside. Here are 7 of the most common fallacies that cost gamblers money.

1. Betting On a Team’s Ace Is a Lock

When casual gamblers get started betting on baseball at the online sportsbooks, they typically defer to what they know about the game. This usually involves exclusively betting on popular teams and players.

One of the most common wagers that beginner’s prefer is a low-value bet on a heavy favorite who has its best pitcher on the mound. On paper, the bet might make a lot of sense, so it’s hard to fault any gambler who engages in this brand of wagering.

While betting on dominant aces might seem like a lock, that’s not always accurate. A great example that disproves this fallacy is the case of New York Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom.

Jacob deGrom:
The Mets’ ace is arguably the best pitcher in the league and the current favorite to win the Cy Young in the National League (+100). Through 4 starts, deGrom has a 0.31 ERA, a WHIP of 0.55.

Additionally, he has struck out 50 batters while only walking 3. In other words, deGrom’s off to a world-class start to the season. Reading those numbers, you likely wouldn’t consider betting against deGrom.

However, in the 4 games he’s started for New York, the Mets are 2-2.

Baseball is a team sport, and the starting pitcher is just 1 of 9 starters. If a team can’t provide run support or a bullpen can’t pick up the starter, then things can go south once he’s pulled from the game.You must take other variables into account before placing bets on a team’s ace. It may seem like a lock, but when a bet seems too good to be true it usually is.

2. Consistently Betting Heavy Favorites is Easy Money

A common strategy some less informed gamblers often defer to is betting on heavy favorites.

The reason for this method is simple:
They’re more familiar with high-profile, big-market squads, and they’re desperate for wins.

So, in their mind, betting on heavy favorites is an easy way to make some money. Not only do they not have to worry about researching certain matchups, but they can also breathe easy knowing their bets are most likely going to win.

This style of betting is often unsustainable, misguided, and is easy to poke holes in.

Say you have a $150 bankroll with a unit size of $50. In this hypothetical, you want to bet a unit on the Dodgers (-200), Yankees (-220), and Red Sox (-240).

If all 3 teams win, you’ll win just under $70.
But, all three of these teams would have to win for you to have a positive return on your bets. If one of these heavy favorites has an off night, which happens almost every night, then you’re losing money on the day.

Betting on heavy favorites is more responsible than betting on heavy underdogs, but all it takes is one loss to ruin your slate of games.

3. A Certain Team is Due For a Win

Some gambling fallacies don’t exclusively apply to baseball.

Many, like the idea that a team is due for a win, are common in every sport.

Baseball is a game of streaks and trends, which can work in a gambler’s favor, or prove to be detrimental. When gamblers approach and interpret these trends correctly, they can profit.

However, it’s much easier to look at a team on paper and make snap judgments. For this example, that illogical conclusion is that a team on a sizable losing streak will snap out of it.

Obviously every losing streak will come to an end eventually, as will every winning streak. However, nobody knows when it will happen or what will cause it.

Making that bold of a prediction feeling so strongly about it that you’ll risk money is hardly advisable.

If you’re going to make one of these sorts of bets, there needs to be a legitimate reason behind the wager.

4. Old-School Stats Show Us Enough

Back in the day all that seemed to matter was home runs, hits, and runs batted in. Those 3 stats could give the gambling public a relatively good idea of what a player was worth.

For pitchers, the big 3 were wins, losses, and ERA. Now, baseball is more complex, much to the dismay of old-school baseball fans.

While the statistical analysis of the game is certainly more complicated and involved, that’s nothing to be afraid of. Old-school statistics still have their place in the game, but the endless amount of information can help gamblers make better decisions.

Now the gambling public can take a statistic like hits and recognize how it factors into much more comprehensive statistics.

If you consider yourself to be a fan of traditional baseball, these new stats will seem overwhelming at first. But, over time they will make you into a better and more intelligent gambler.

Dragging your heels and refusing to innovate your gambling approach will do you more harm than good.

5. Name Recognition is Important

It’s often pretty obvious when you’re talking to someone who doesn’t know all that much about baseball. They will typically list off the mainstays in the game, and might even sprinkle in some players who retired years ago.

This seems to become more common over the years as baseball struggles to attract new viewers. However, it seems like the MLB is aware of its shortcomings and will address its marketing deficiencies.

Until then, however, the best and most impactful players might continue to fly under the radar. While the Mike Trouts and Aaron Judges of the league are crucial to the game, other less recognizable faces are dominating the sport.

As a baseball gambler:
It’s up to you to familiarize yourself with each team’s roster. Not only should you know each team’s key contributors, but it will help you to have extensive knowledge of each roster.

Betting on a team because you think you’re more familiar with them, or see players on commercials is a sorry excuse to place a wager.

6. Betting Systems Are a Must

Many baseball gamblers use betting systems. Some use them for practical, legitimate reasons.

Others do so because they think they have to:
While betting systems can be an effective tool for sports gamblers, you don’t need one to succeed. Your bets should have some sort of consistency and a betting system helps ensure this. But, sticking to a system for the sake of subscribing to a perceived industry norm is unnecessary. If a system you’re using puts you in uncomfortable positions, consider adjusting said system of abandoning altogether.

You shouldn’t place bets that fill you with a sense of dread.

7. Betting on Baseball Is Too Challenging

The last fallacy that costs gamblers money is that baseball is far too complicated to bet or isn’t worth your time. Sure, baseball might have a higher barrier to entry, but that shouldn’t dissuade you from learning how to bet on it.

Please Note:
Baseball requires gamblers to possess more game knowledge and engage in more research than other sports. But, that extra work will pay dividends and make you a more well-rounded gambler.

If you’re on the fence, consider starting small and not putting yourself in a compromising position. The sport can be profitable for all types of bettors, but don’t force it if you don’t feel up to the challenge.


Distinguishing between fact and fiction is a skill any gambler must acquire, especially when it comes to betting on baseball.

Once you’re able to do so:
You can avoid falling into the same traps that have tripped up countless gamblers before you. If you think you’re making a decision based on a fallacy, stop and consider your approach to a wager.

Logic, reason, and research should be the primary motivators behind sharp bets, not superstitions and misconceptions.

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Rex Hoffman / Author

Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.

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