Canelo Alvarez vs Sergey Kovalev Betting Preview

There is some high level boxing action going Saturday night from the T-mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Saul Canelo Alvarez will be fighting Sergey “The Krusher” Kovalev in a 12 round affair. This is a very interesting matchup for many reasons.

Canelo is one of the best pure boxers in the game today but is moving up in weight significantly. The redhead from Mexico has had his fair share of drama in the media as of late even including a little beef with his promoter, The Golden Boy himself, Oscar De La Hoya.

Will that distract him even in the slightest in his matchup from the desert on Saturday? I don’t really think so but time will tell.

Alvarez is coming off of a couple of victories post GGG. His majority decision win over Golovkin was at 160 pounds. This fight for the WBO Light Heavyweight Title will be at 178 pounds. That’s a big jump considering he was slightly the smaller fighter in that contest.

We are yet to see Canelo truly hurt with a shot but this Saturday may be the night it happens.

Sergey Kovalev is a rangy guy even for his weight class and Canelo will be giving up a staggering 6 inches in height. The Krusher is at the tail end of his career and has lost to Andre Ward (twice) and Eleider Alvarez. He beat Alvarez in an immediate rematch. This is going to be a fun one!

The online sportsbook BetOnline has the lines for us.

Let’s get to the betting odds and picks for Alvarez vs Kovalev and if you want to have even more fun, check our UFC 244 betting preview.

Canelo Alvarez vs Sergey Kovalev

CANELO ALVAREZ
-380
SERGEY KOVALEV
+320

These are some pretty wide odds considering the level of the champion and the fact that Alvarez is making such a huge jump up in weight. 10% is a lot!

I think the Mexican is the better boxer. His combinations and power are unmatched in the boxing world today. There are fighters who have one or the other but nobody puts those two skills together better than Canelo.

Alvarez’s best counters are his hooks and overhand right. See Amir Khan knockout. Whew, he flattened him.

Amir Khan is like 150 pounds soaking wet, though.

29-years-old is a fighter’s prime and 36 is when your reflexes start to go. Those are the ages of our combatants for this weekend’s bout.

It Should Be Noted:

Though, that Sergey has never really been a fighter that relied too heavily on his reflexes. His lead jab is one of the best punches in all of boxing to this day and it will be up to Canelo to try and time in with an overhand right.

Even though Kovalev will be almost half a foot taller than his foe, he will only possess a 2-inch reach advantage. That sounds like a recipe for the overhand right.

Heck, he may slip the right hand and rip one of his patented shovel hooks to the body of Sergey.

It’s hard to knock out a bigger man with a head shot but to the body, it becomes slightly more doable.

This is especially true of a man with Sergey’s build as he isn’t a stocky guy and doesn’t have a giant wall of muscle and/or fat covering up that floating rib.

Here’s the kicker for me, though, guys…

Kovalev had a hard time in his last fight with Anthony Yarde. He showed a ton of heart, skill, and conditioning by finishing the younger man in the 11th round but took some shots along the way.

Sergey Kovalev Fighting Anthony Yarde

He was hit more times by Yarde than what Andre Ward was able to do in either of his wins versus the Russian. Over 100 power punches were landed by Yarde. I told you the kicker is coming, right?

This fight was on August 24th! 100 power shots by a nearly 200-pound man… I can’t believe he is fighting again so soon.

De La Hoya must have thrown some serious cash at the Russian. Do the math. He takes two weeks off after that war, minimum. Before he really gets into camp, it’s mid-September. That gives him 6 weeks to get ready for one of the top 3 pound-for-pound boxers in the world who is in his prime!

He is being set up to fail.

Alvarez, on the other hand, hasn’t competed since early May and that was a warmup fight where he cruised to a unanimous decision victory.

The jump in weight is huge but there’s also the fact that Canelo will be carrying more weight and should not be drained at all from the cut. His power and chin will be stronger.

Sergey has shown to be weak to the body in the past against Ward and Canelo is already down there being the shorter man.

It will be hard for the Russian not to miss with his right straight as Canelo slips and rips as well as anyone.

I think the Mexican superstar gets it done inside the distance.

The Bet
ALVAREZ BY FINISH
+180

In Conclusion

Yes, there is gigantic UFC card this weekend from Madison Square Garden but we cannot forget about this fight!

This is big. I wish there was more of a buildup.

Kovalev is only 2 months off of his last fight and that wasn’t exactly a warmup. These guys are good but you can’t beat time.

Father time has caught up with Sergey Kovalev or at least it appears so and he has had no time since his last fight.

This is a double whammy. Not only has he not had the chance to prepare for Alvarez in particular but his brain is still rattled from getting hit more times in his previous fight than in any contest of his career.

I definitely think Sergey is getting paid for this one or he wouldn’t take the fight.

I’m surprised the Nevada State Athletic Commission is sanctioning it also but then again, they might be getting paid a little bit too…

Even with the recent squabbles between Canelo Alvarez and his promoter Oscar De La Hoya, the latter has undoubtedly put his fighter in a position to win.

Freddie Roach and Kovalev’s kryptonite both agree.

The Russian is not the fighter he once was and we all know

Mike Pruitt / author

Mike has been covering sports professionally since 2017 but on the amateur scene for 25 years since when he was 12. Before the internet changed the world, he would keep detailed statistical box scores of NFL and NBA contests, write recaps, and voluntarily commentate games and fights alone in his room. Mike's military experience, Bachelors Degree, and employment thereafter were always rooted in engineering, science, and teaching. Now he enjoys being able to express himself through writing about football, golf, and car racing among other sports but most of all fighting as his life has been rooted in mixed martial arts including competing and teaching for the past 15 years.