Are the New York Giants a Better Bet for the Over in 2021?

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As of April, the New York Giants Over/Under sits at 7 games. And they have potential to overcome their projected Over/Under with a lot of ‘Ifs.’

IF:
If Daniel Jones finally makes The Leap in Year 3. If Kenny Golladay and Saquon Barkley stay healthy. If the Giants finally landed a good pass rusher, the list goes on. In their defense, they have a year of experience under their belt with Joe Judge and his system.

The Giants also have a lot of potential on offense, especially with Evan Engram, Sterling Shepherd, Darious Slayton, and Kadarius Toney rounding up the pass-catching unit. You won’t find a dull spot on this offense, minus Jones.

So, are they a better bet?

State of the New York Giants

The New York Giants can win the game on offense, especially after those 2 ‘Ifs’ mentioned in the intro. Give this team a good quarterback play in Jones and keep Barkley healthy.

Daniel Jones New York Giants Passing

With their talent at the pass-catching unit, they can move the ball downfield with ease. The Giants are also deep, whether it’s at the defensive line, linebacker, receiver, anywhere on the field.

However, it’s important to remember a few weaknesses, which we will outline in later sections along with their strengths. The Giants have a head coach from Bill Belichick’s coaching tree, and they barely work out. Matt Patricia learned that when he was fired from the Detroit Lions in mid-season.

This is also a team that has yet to prove itself, despite their surrounding talent. The Giants have won little over the last decade, and it’s seeping into the 2020s. Therefore, expectations are so low that you may hesitate to bet the Over.

Strengths of the New York Giants

Saquon Barkley remains the face of the franchise as he heads into his fourth season. Barkley missed most of Year 3 with a torn ACL, and he found himself banged up often in Year 2, despite putting up stellar production. However, expect him to start strong in Year 4.

You can’t say enough about their pass-catching unit. They hit a ringer with Golladay and drafted Toney in the first round. Evan Engram is dynamic when healthy. Ditto for Shepherd and Slayton.

Offensive line remained a weak unit in 2020, but former first-round pick Andrew Thomas improved as the season wore on. Look for him to turn the position into a strength in 2021. If Will Hernandez and Nate Solder return to form, the Giants can run all day and if Jones is alright, will pass on anyone.

Flip to the defense, where Leonard Williams remains in his prime. Danny Shelton joins him and former first-round pick Dexter Lawrence has also posted productive numbers. Blake Martinez is a stud at linebacker, and the Giants may finally have an edge rusher in Azeez Ojulari.

In the defensive backfield, Logan Ryan, Adoree Jackson, and James Bradberry lead a strong defensive backs unit. Overall, the Giants look much better than what their 2020 record showed on paper. And now, in Year 2 of this regime, they appear to have filled the remaining gaps.

Weaknesses of the New York Giants

Let’s be honest: Daniel Jones has the talent to be an NFL quarterback. However, he showed little growth in 2020, and perhaps he took a step back.

Daniel Jones Starter

After tossing 24 touchdowns in 2019, he threw just 11 in 2020. His quarterback rating dropped from 87.7 to 80.4, and through 14 games, threw for fewer than 3,000 yards. Jones is out of excuses with the surrounding talent.

  • He has 2 bookend tackles.
  • An outstanding running back.
  • An outstanding tight end.
  • And a plethora of phenomenal receivers.
He can’t ask for more, yet he may remain a liability.

If you believe the Giants can encroach the Over, remember that Jones remains your best bet. Mike Glennon, Joe Webb, and Clayton Thorson won’t give this team a chance to win. It’s Jones or bust for the Giants, and we’re looking at a quarterback who may find himself on his last chance to be a starter.

Also, the coaching staff from the Belichick tree is never a basket to place your eggs, regardless of how successful they were in New England. And Judge is one of those coaches. When you look at previous Belichick disciples, how many succeeded as head coaches? Few, if any.

Therefore, will the same thing haunt the New York Giants?

In today’s league, a good coach/quarterback combo will drive a team to succeed. However, this combo can also become a liability on what otherwise looks like a talented team. And as you can see from the Strengths section above, the Giants boast perhaps more talent than their NFC East rivals.

Aaron Rodgers, anyone?

Yeah, if the Giants actually pulled it off, you can place a futures wager tomorrow at the top NFL betting sites that this team will contend for the Lombardi Trophy. And it matters not on who’s coaching. But until they do so, the Giants remain an ultra-high risk even for an Over/Under.

However, let’s study their schedule before we base things on their strengths and weaknesses alone.

New York Giants Schedule

The New York Giants play the NFC East, and historically, they play well against the Washington Football Team. At least with recent history.

In Fact:
They finished 4-2 against the NFC East in 2020 with an inferior team, so it should tell you how well they can play the East.

However, Washington and Dallas both improved, and the only team they match well with on paper are the Philadelphia Eagles. Expect a floor of 1-5, however, as the Eagles have the potential to build a lethal offense stemming from the strengths of quarterback, Jalen Hurts.

However, if they play the East like they did in 2020, expect 4-2 again.

The Giants finished 2nd in the NFC East, and they will play the Los Angeles Rams, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Chicago Bears. The Bears are the only team they match up well against here. Maybe the Steelers if they play them late in the season. Expect 0-3 at the worst, and 2-1 tops. They aren’t ready to contend with LA.

Flip to the Common Opponents:
The Giants face the NFC South and AFC West. The Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and New Orleans Saints will make quick work of them, and it would be a shocker if the Giants won any of the aforementioned games.

They also don’t match well with the Las Vegas Raiders or the Los Angeles Chargers. But they match really well with the Denver Broncos, Atlanta Falcons, and Carolina Panthers. You can expect a floor of 3-5 against common opponents, and a ceiling of 5-3.

Please Note:
Don’t expect them to beat the Chiefs, Saints, or Bucs. A special mention goes to the Brees-less Saints. But over the past 2 seasons, they are 8-1 over 9 games without Brees. Don’t expect the Saints to fall back too far.

Are the New York Giants a Better Bet for the Over?

The Giants can encroach their Over, but they must win games against teams they match well with, that being the Falcons, Broncos, Eagles, and Panthers. It will give them 5 wins, so they must also have a repeat regarding their success in the NFC East, which brings them to 7 wins (finished 4-2 in 2020).

But it still isn’t enough.

The Giants must win at least 1 game against their uncommon opponents to reach the 8-9 mark and encroach their Over/Under, or defeat either the Raiders or Chargers. However, as mentioned in the previous section, the Giants, talent-wise, don’t stack up well.

What does your intuition say about the New York Giants?

If you bet conservatively, expect 2 wins in the division, perhaps 3 wins against the common opponents that they match well with, and 1 win against the non-common opponents. It still doesn’t even give you a push.

However, if you’re aggressive, or if you believe the Giants are better than their projected win total, they can once again win 4 games in the NFC East, and perhaps upset a team or 2 that matches up better than they do on paper.

The Giants have the talent. But do they have the correct coach slash quarterback combo in place to pull off the shocker?

Joe Judge With Daniel Jones

Conclusion

The New York Giants have a lot of talent, but their coach and quarterback remain inferior to the bulk of the NFL’s coach slash quarterback combos. In today’s league, you need both to see your team overachieve and encroach on the Over.

However, if Jones and Judge get it together, along with the team remaining healthy, you can expect them to at least contend to grace the Over/Under in 2021. Every bet in this game is high risk, but the Giants may just be among the highest risk slash reward bets in the league.

What are your thoughts on the New York Giants? Are they a good bet for the Over in 2021 at the online sportsbooks? Or will we see the same old Giants from recent memory take the field? Let us know your thoughts in the comments and we look forward to reading your opinion.

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Rex Hoffman / Author

Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.

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