Are the Tennessee Titans a Good Bet for the Over?

Tennessee Titans Over Under (1)

As of April 2021, the Tennessee Titans sit at a 9.5 over-under projection. Over the past 2 seasons, the Titans have surprised with playoff appearances, so now odds are, you’re more likely to bet the Over with them.

However, things aren’t always as they seem.

Sure, the Tennessee Titans look good in a few capacities, like coaching and their offensive systems. Unfortunately, the team still struggles on defense and most of the AFC South, weak as the sports media claims, has grown stronger.

Can the Titans remain atop the AFC South and shatter their 9.5-win projection?

Today’s post will discuss, beginning with the state of the team before we talk about strengths, weaknesses, and schedules. Let’s see what’s in store for the AFC South powerhouse and if you should go with them at the NFL betting sites.

State of the Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans have claimed the greatest running back in today’s game twice with Derrick Henry. Henry has won the rushing title in 2019 and 2020. And given his size and strength, he’s more durable than most running backs.

In fact:
Those who spotted him from a distance at the Titans facility have even claimed they thought they were looking at an offensive lineman as opposed to a featured running back. That gives you a strong idea regarding Henry’s size.

And they have built the offense around Henry, using quarterback Ryan Tannehill as the gadget player he is. The run-first system remains in-lieu with the rather old school style of play sweeping the league here in the 2020s.

Please Note:
It’s much like the systems that the Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Minnesota Vikings, and San Francisco 49ers run. Here, the running game is the offense’s centerpiece while the passing game comes into play when called upon.

The Titans also have a good pair of receivers in A.J. Brown, and rookie, Dez Fitzpatrick. They also built the offensive line around their preferred style of offense. And so far, things appear set for yet another successful year on offense, even if they don’t have an answer at tight end.

Defense is where we find issues:
The Titans struggled defensively in 2020 and they took a huge risk with drafting cornerback Caleb Farley. The ultimate boom or bust, Farley produces well when healthy. But his health remains a huge IF.

Signing Bud Dupree helped set the edge after Vic Beasley crashed and burned. Janoris Jenkins and Kevin Byard should also keep the defensive backfield afloat. But the question remains whether the defense can get past its woes.

Strengths of the Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans boast most of their strengths on offense, if you caught the gist in the State of the Team section.

As mentioned:
They remain built to run through opponents, using ball control. As weak as the defense was, the ball control style will keep possession out of opposing teams’ hands.

Not only is this the correct offensive system for Derrick Henry, but it works well with Ryan Tannehill’s skill set. Tannehill was never an accomplished passer, even in college. Overdrafted in 2012, he proved incapable of running an offense when they leaned on him.

In Nashville, he barely throws the ball over 30 times a game.

The coaching staff is also a huge boost for the Titans. Mike Vrabel holds a 29-19 record and does not yet have a losing season. Huge for a coach beginning Year 4 at the helm. A defensive-minded coach, Vrabel can also fix a unit that allowed just about everyone to score on them in 2020.

Also as noted in the section above:
Bud Dupree’s presence could change things. However, the question remains whether he can develop into the lead guy coming off the edge. Back in Pittsburgh, he had T.J. Watt. In Nashville, he doesn’t have All-Pro help coming off the edge. But still, credentials matter.

The Tennessee Titans also look better on paper against 2 division rivals, the Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars. This also gives them a huge strength within the division, but more on that in a later section.

Weaknesses of the Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans allowed a lot of points in 2020, and it often looked incapable of stopping even the most stagnant offenses. If Vrabel fixes the unit to resemble what they were in 2019, it’ll be a huge break for this team in the Over/Under department, because they will come out and win more games.

But the issue remains here in May 2021.

Behind A.J. Brown and Dez Fitzpatrick, the Titans are weak in the pass catching units. If Derrick Henry were to become a liability from a durability standpoint, this will set the entire team back. As noted, Henry has shown nothing but durability, but in the NFL, the injury-risk always remains.

We know that Tannehill cannot carry an offense alone.

And we also know that the Titans have little else to lean on without Henry. It’s literally a Henry or Nothing Show in 2021.

  • For you, that means you could probably win your bet for the Over if Henry again stays healthy.
  • If the injury bug sneaks up on him in 2021, you will have a much tougher time winning the Over.

Never say never, but this is the risk when an entire offense runs through one player.

Please Note:
It’s akin to the Aaron Rodgers situation in Green Bay. Rodgers, when healthy and content, will almost always help you win your Over. But if Rodgers is not healthy or in the case of 2021, holds out, it’s risky to bet the Over.

Schedule of the Tennessee Titans

Since the Tennessee Titans won the AFC South in 2020, they get to play the best uncommon opponents in 2021. These include the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, and Pittsburgh Steelers.

You may look at the Steelers and Saints and scoff.

However, remember the Saints have finished 8-1 in 2019 and 2020 in games without star quarterback Drew Brees. His retirement won’t set this team back.

Of course, the Chiefs need no introduction.

The Steelers have one of the best defenses in football, so look for an even matchup here.

You should expect the Titans, given their talent, to win 1 of these 3 games, but not over 2 games.

  • Common opponents include tilts against the NFC West and AFC East. Both divisions will test the Titans, as 7 of the 8 teams possess playoff potential. Look for the Titans to split here, with a 3-5 floor and a 5-3 ceiling.
  • The weaker teams, like the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and New England Patriots, however, could still sneak a win against the Titans. All 3 teams have improved over the 2021 offseason.

The Titans also play the AFC South. They should prepare the brooms against their biggest rivals, the Houston Texans, given the weakness of the latter. However, the Titans will see a challenge from the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Seriously, don’t count out the Jaguars.
This team possesses a lot of potential despite their young roster. For the AFC South, look for a sweep against the Texans, and a floor of 3-3, along with a ceiling of 5-1. Either way, don’t think the South will come so easily in 2021. The Jaguars can easily contend here.

Are the Tennessee Titans a Good Bet for the Over?

The Titans are a good bet for the Over if you believe they can overcome their common and uncommon opponents. 12 of their 17 games come against either playoff contenders or teams who made the playoffs in 2020.

Those games will test the Titans and decide their fate.

At worst, the Titans should finish 7-10, and 2.5 games Under their projected Over/Under. However, the Titans classify in the NFL’s upper echelon, so they can steal a few from their common and uncommon opponents.

If they sweep the Jaguars and Texans while splitting with the Colts, which is possible, the Titans own a good outlook for the Over. Suppose they reach their ceiling with 2 wins over uncommon opponents, 5 over common opponents, and 5 in the division. Now, they sit at 12-5.

And when you do the math here by adding their floor wins with their ceiling wins, you get 19. Divide it by 2, and you get 9.5.

What does your intuition say?
Can the Titans win more games against their common and uncommon opponents? If you think so, you’re probably betting the Over. If you believe the Titans are not as good as their common opponents, you are likely to bet the Under.


The Tennessee Titans have good coaches and an outstanding system on offense. Plus, they have one of the best budding receivers in football with A.J. Brown.

Question marks remain on defense, but the defensive-minded Mike Vrabel can fix this unit. Especially with his draftees and free agent signings. The Titans still pose as the best team in the AFC South on paper, but their tough schedule will decide whether they eclipse the Over or fall short.

What are your thoughts on the Tennessee Titans? Are they good bets for the Over at the online sportsbooks, or will their schedule pose too much as the season wears on? Tell us your opinion in the comments.

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Rex Hoffman / Author

Rex Hoffman is a passionate sports writer, with over five years of experience covering sports journalism in line with the Vegas betting landscape. His favorite subjects include football, basketball, and baseball. As a Las Vegas resident, he enjoys finding an edge against the local sportsbooks and aims to share his extensive knowledge with both beginners and experienced bettors. Rex also dabbles in horse racing wagering and enjoys typical casino fare like blackjack and poker in his spare time.

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