As of April 2021, the Tennessee Titans sit at a 9.5 over-under projection. Over the past 2 seasons, the Titans have surprised with playoff appearances, so now odds are, you’re more likely to bet the Over with them.
Sure, the Tennessee Titans look good in a few capacities, like coaching and their offensive systems. Unfortunately, the team still struggles on defense and most of the AFC South, weak as the sports media claims, has grown stronger.
Today’s post will discuss, beginning with the state of the team before we talk about strengths, weaknesses, and schedules. Let’s see what’s in store for the AFC South powerhouse and if you should go with them at the NFL betting sites.
State of the Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans have claimed the greatest running back in today’s game twice with Derrick Henry. Henry has won the rushing title in 2019 and 2020. And given his size and strength, he’s more durable than most running backs.
And they have built the offense around Henry, using quarterback Ryan Tannehill as the gadget player he is. The run-first system remains in-lieu with the rather old school style of play sweeping the league here in the 2020s.
The Titans also have a good pair of receivers in A.J. Brown, and rookie, Dez Fitzpatrick. They also built the offensive line around their preferred style of offense. And so far, things appear set for yet another successful year on offense, even if they don’t have an answer at tight end.
Signing Bud Dupree helped set the edge after Vic Beasley crashed and burned. Janoris Jenkins and Kevin Byard should also keep the defensive backfield afloat. But the question remains whether the defense can get past its woes.
Strengths of the Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans boast most of their strengths on offense, if you caught the gist in the State of the Team section.
Not only is this the correct offensive system for Derrick Henry, but it works well with Ryan Tannehill’s skill set. Tannehill was never an accomplished passer, even in college. Overdrafted in 2012, he proved incapable of running an offense when they leaned on him.
The coaching staff is also a huge boost for the Titans. Mike Vrabel holds a 29-19 record and does not yet have a losing season. Huge for a coach beginning Year 4 at the helm. A defensive-minded coach, Vrabel can also fix a unit that allowed just about everyone to score on them in 2020.
The Tennessee Titans also look better on paper against 2 division rivals, the Houston Texans, and Jacksonville Jaguars. This also gives them a huge strength within the division, but more on that in a later section.
Weaknesses of the Tennessee Titans
The Tennessee Titans allowed a lot of points in 2020, and it often looked incapable of stopping even the most stagnant offenses. If Vrabel fixes the unit to resemble what they were in 2019, it’ll be a huge break for this team in the Over/Under department, because they will come out and win more games.
Behind A.J. Brown and Dez Fitzpatrick, the Titans are weak in the pass catching units. If Derrick Henry were to become a liability from a durability standpoint, this will set the entire team back. As noted, Henry has shown nothing but durability, but in the NFL, the injury-risk always remains.
And we also know that the Titans have little else to lean on without Henry. It’s literally a Henry or Nothing Show in 2021.
- For you, that means you could probably win your bet for the Over if Henry again stays healthy.
- If the injury bug sneaks up on him in 2021, you will have a much tougher time winning the Over.
Never say never, but this is the risk when an entire offense runs through one player.
Schedule of the Tennessee Titans
Since the Tennessee Titans won the AFC South in 2020, they get to play the best uncommon opponents in 2021. These include the Kansas City Chiefs, New Orleans Saints, and Pittsburgh Steelers.
However, remember the Saints have finished 8-1 in 2019 and 2020 in games without star quarterback Drew Brees. His retirement won’t set this team back.
The Steelers have one of the best defenses in football, so look for an even matchup here.
You should expect the Titans, given their talent, to win 1 of these 3 games, but not over 2 games.
- Common opponents include tilts against the NFC West and AFC East. Both divisions will test the Titans, as 7 of the 8 teams possess playoff potential. Look for the Titans to split here, with a 3-5 floor and a 5-3 ceiling.
- The weaker teams, like the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, and New England Patriots, however, could still sneak a win against the Titans. All 3 teams have improved over the 2021 offseason.
The Titans also play the AFC South. They should prepare the brooms against their biggest rivals, the Houston Texans, given the weakness of the latter. However, the Titans will see a challenge from the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars.
Are the Tennessee Titans a Good Bet for the Over?
The Titans are a good bet for the Over if you believe they can overcome their common and uncommon opponents. 12 of their 17 games come against either playoff contenders or teams who made the playoffs in 2020.
At worst, the Titans should finish 7-10, and 2.5 games Under their projected Over/Under. However, the Titans classify in the NFL’s upper echelon, so they can steal a few from their common and uncommon opponents.
If they sweep the Jaguars and Texans while splitting with the Colts, which is possible, the Titans own a good outlook for the Over. Suppose they reach their ceiling with 2 wins over uncommon opponents, 5 over common opponents, and 5 in the division. Now, they sit at 12-5.
And when you do the math here by adding their floor wins with their ceiling wins, you get 19. Divide it by 2, and you get 9.5.
The Tennessee Titans have good coaches and an outstanding system on offense. Plus, they have one of the best budding receivers in football with A.J. Brown.
Question marks remain on defense, but the defensive-minded Mike Vrabel can fix this unit. Especially with his draftees and free agent signings. The Titans still pose as the best team in the AFC South on paper, but their tough schedule will decide whether they eclipse the Over or fall short.
What are your thoughts on the Tennessee Titans? Are they good bets for the Over at the online sportsbooks, or will their schedule pose too much as the season wears on? Tell us your opinion in the comments.