It’s never too early to start scoping out futures lines for your next election wager!
Now that the 2020 presidential election is basically over – even though Donald Trump has filed several lawsuits, demanding recounts, and hasn’t conceded – it’s the perfect time to set our sights on 2024 –when a field of Republican candidates duke it out for their party’s nomination and a chance to win back the White House from the Biden administration.
(Whether Joe Biden is the incumbent remains to be seen. If I had to handicap such a thing, I’d set the odds of the president-elect still being alive and/or able to participate in politics at about 8%.
There’s a good chance Kamala Harris will ascend to the presidency during the next few years. With Bernie Sanders out of the way, I’m not sure there’s a Democrat from the party’s progressive wing who would dare primary her.)
Betting on an outcome four years away is always a longshot. So much can happen in that amount of time.
Still, if you have some special incite or get lucky, futures markets reward bettors for making accurate predictions early.
|2024 Republican Nominee||Betting Odds|
|Donald Trump Sr.||+400|
|Donald Trump Jr.||+2500|
|George P. Bush||+10000|
- Odds from Bovada as of 11/16
The Comeback Kid
The most hilarious development to emerge since Election Day was that President Trump is considering running it back in four years if he’s forced to concede eventually.
His 71 million votes set a record for incumbent presidents seeking reelection, so it’s hard to blame the guy. Especially if he genuinely believes the election was stolen from him.
A Lot Can Change in Four Years
In four years, the Biden (or Harris) administration will have wholly alienated the leftist/progressive wing of the Democratic Party, so it would be the perfect time to rile up the MAGA crowd again. Dems won’t be able to drive the kind of turnout that 2020 inspired twice, not after the incoming Democratic administration ends up being nearly indistinguishable from the Trump White House.
Of course, Donald Trump will be four years older, which could be an issue.
In 2024, he’ll be the same age Joe Biden is now, and we’ve already seen how dramatically the president-elect has declined since 2016. Watching interviews from these past two election cycles, Biden is a totally different guy.
On the other hand, the President is substantially fatter than Joe Biden has ever been. He’s also rumored to use stimulants to keep up his energy. No matter how sharp Donald Trump’s mind might be in 2024, the more significant concern is whether his heart will hold up.
Trumpist Republicans Here to Stay
Whether he runs or not, Donald Trump’s presence will be felt in the Republican Party for years to come. He steamrolled the GOP’s establishment moderates in the 2016 primaries and has held their party captive ever since.
If the old guard was hoping to return the party to its neoconservative roots after Trump left office, that plan went out the window on Election Day, when the MAGA crowd flooded the polls like never before.
When analyzing other potential 2024 GOP nominees, one must first consider a candidate’s relationship with Donald Trump and his followers. President Trump may leave office, but he’s not going anywhere as a public figure — he’s expected to launch a new right-wing news network.
That means he’ll continue to wield a considerable amount of influence among Republicans.
There’s a battle brewing for control of the GOP; it’ll play out over the next four years as the Washington DC establishment tries to drag both parties back to the corporatist center.
After watching Trump rallies fill multiple stadiums per day in an awe-inspiring campaign trail blitz during the week before Election Day — then seeing the ludicrous voter turnout he inspired — my money is on the Trumpists winning out for at least one more campaign cycle.
That means the 2024 Republican nominee will either be Donald Trump himself, or someone he approves.
If Donald Sr. Loses his fastball over the next four years but is still casting a massive shadow over the Republican Party, one might expect Trump to endorse someone from his inner circle.
Donald Trump Jr. (+2500)
Can you imagine?
The only thing that could make liberals lose their minds more than Donald Trump Sr. running again in 2024 is his son and namesake winning the nomination instead. That would turn something they want to write off as a one-time fluke into a budding political dynasty they’re forced to contend with for decades.
Fortunately for liberals, Don Jr. possesses none of whatever quality it is that makes his father so fascinating. Since 2016, he’s done his best President Trump impersonation, but he just doesn’t have “it.”
By the way, when the Trump administration is far enough in the rearview for people to analyze and discuss without emotionally framing anything related to Trump and his family as aggressively terrible and Hitlerian in dehumanizing ways, I think Don Jr will be a tragic figure.
It’s painfully apparent that Ivanka is the President’s favorite child. It really shouldn’t be so obvious for the whole world to see. Observing how Donald Jr has altered his media presence over the years, he reeks of someone desperately seeking his father’s approval.
I’m not even sure Trump Sr would endorse his namesake if Junior ran in 2024 – that’s how sad it is.
Jared Kushner (+5000)
President Trump favors Ivanka to such an insane degree; he trusts her husband, his son-in-law, with significantly more responsibility and a much more prominent role in his administration than either son.
That said, I don’t think the MAGA base will accept a Kushner candidacy.
He’s a more traditional moderate Republican and has pulled his father-in-law away from much of the populist rhetoric of 2016.
Trump supporters are already starting to blame members of the President’s inner circle for the failings of their leader’s administration and second campaign. Those voices would only get louder if Kushner tried to run on his own.
Rudy Guiliani (+2500)
I can’t believe Rudy is even included in Bovada’s futures lines.
Not to mention, he got destroyed when he ran for the Republican nomination in 2008 – back when he was still riding a post-9/11 wave of popularity.
Being Trump’s faithful manservant for four years has alienated Guiliani with moderates and liberals. Repeatedly failing at whatever mission the President tapped him for doesn’t leave him in much better standing with Trump supporters either.
Desperately Hoping Trump Doesn’t Run Again
There are a few potential presidential candidates who will never cross Trump or discourage him from running again but have the most to gain from him retiring and are desperately hoping to fill his void.
Mike Pence (+400)
Mike Pence has the same implied probability of winning the 2024 GOP nomination as Donald Trump. Pence has MAGA cred for serving as Trump’s Vice President while maintaining an appeal with Christian conservatives and moderate Republicans.
He makes a lot of sense on paper.
Still, I somehow doubt Pence’s ability to secure the Republican nomination on his own. Trump supporters may hold a favorable opinion of the Vice President, but he doesn’t have the charisma to garner the intense devotion that formed in the wake of his running mate’s cult of personality.
Nikki Haley (+500)
If I could only bet on one person to lead the Republican ticket in 2024, it’d probably be Nikki Haley.
Haley is President Trump’s former ambassador to the United Nations; before that, she was the first female Governor of South Carolina. She’s of Indian descent, which takes some of the left’s favorite complaints about the GOP off the table, is attractive, and plays the game well.
The 2024 hopeful has managed to walk the line supporting Trump and staying on his good side without abandoning the party’s moderate faction.
The former ambassador has been silent on the President’s accusations of voter fraud. After Donald Trump Jr took to Twitter to complain about unnamed future presidential hopefuls’ “total lack of action” on behalf of his father, Haley tweeted the following:
“We all owe @realDonaldTrump for his leadership of conservative victories for Senate, House, & state legislatures. He and the American people deserve transparency & fairness as the votes are counted. The law must be followed. We have to keep the faith that the truth will prevail.”
She doesn’t go all-in and say anything that might jeopardize her political career later but makes sure to praise Donald Trump and stroke his ego.
The least surprising thing in the world would be Nikki Haley riding a wave of MAGA support to the Republican nomination, then behaving like an average “Paul Ryan Republican” — whether as a presidential candidate or the actual President.
Tim Scott (+1400)
After Nikki Haley, Tim Scott is my favorite way-too-early pick to take the reins of the Republican Party from Trump in 2024.
He gave one of the more impressive speeches of the Republican National Convention and has done an excellent job of challenging and educating the President on race and racism as different controversies sprung up throughout the past four years.
Former GOP congressman Trey Gowdy recently shared his desire to see his fellow South Carolinian run for President in a post on Facebook.
Following his RNC speech, calls for Sen. Scott to run for President in 2024 exploded. In it, he shared his experiences growing up as a Black man in America – and more specifically, a conservative Black man.
“My grandfather’s 99th birthday would have been tomorrow. Growing up, he had to cross the street if a white person was coming. He suffered the indignity of being forced out of school as a third grader to pick cotton, and never learned to read or write.” said Sen. Scott. “Yet, he lived to see his grandson become the first African American to be elected to both the United States House and Senate.”
The 2020 election showed that the Democrats no longer own the Black and Brown vote.
The DNC has gone all-in on affluent, college-educated suburbanites and largely abandoned rural and working-class voters of all backgrounds. Whether or not someone has a college degree and lives in a metropolitan city or urban environment is much more indicative of their political affiliations than race.
Nominating an African American candidate would make a strong statement to Black voters who are losing patience with the Democratic Party’s decades of empty platitudes and unfulfilled promises.
American Royalty / The Illuminati’s Pick
Now that we’ve discussed the early favorites, a full four years out from the next Republican primaries, it’s time to come to terms with reality. The more sense those other potential candidates make, the less likely they are to ascend to power.
There’s only one crime family with the dynastic legacy and deep-rooted connections to purge Trumpism from the US political spectrum:
Just when you think you’ve seen the last of them, the next generation of American royalty reaches governing age.
Like the family’s two presidents before him, the fourth-generation elected official’s name follows the winning naming convention, correcting where Jeb went wrong in 2016.
It must be a “George Bush,” with a unique middle initial.
He’s spoken at multiple Republican National Conventions, beginning in 1988 at the age of 12, was named deputy finance chairman of the Republican Party of Texas in 2012, and was ranked one of “Newsmax’s 50 Most Influential Latino Republicans” in 2016.
That’s right; in addition to sporting the “Bush” name and benefiting from the family connections, George P. Bush is also half Mexican.
If there’s one thing I know about this country, it’s that it loves a familiar name – and loves its political royalty even more. I don’t know if George P. will make the leap from Land Commissioner to presidential candidate by 2024 – the Bush progeny usually spend a few years as governor before going for the big prize.
But desperate times call for desperate measures.
And once he’s here, George Prescott Bush is here to stay for as long as it takes to remind America whose country this really is.
I’ll be betting GPB every election cycle between now and his dystopian dictatorship.