Bellator 272 Full Card Betting Picks, Latest Odds and Fight Analysis

Bellator MMA Pettis Vs Horiguchi

This eleven-fight Bellator card is stacked, so we’re jumping right into our Bellator 272 Betting picks. You’ll see the fighters stats, a quick analysis, and our best betting pick for each fight, starting with the main event.

Sergio Pettis vs Kyoji Horiguchi

Our main event is the Bantamweight Championship between champion Pettis and the interim champion Horiguchi. World wide, these are the #34 and #31 bantamweights.

Tale of the Tape for Pettis vs Horiguchi

Fighter Sergio Pettis Kyoji Horiguchi
Moneyline +143 -163
Age 28 31
Height 5’6’’ 5’5’’
Reach/Stance 69’’, Orthodox 66’’, Southpaw
Record 21-5 29-3
Submissions/TKO 4/3 3/15
Over/Under 4 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -210 U +170
Fighter Training Camp Roufusport MMA American Top Team Florida

Kyoji is currently fighting for two promotions, staying active in Rizin and Bellator. He’s 1-1 of his last two bouts.

Pettis takes the height, age and reach advantage. He has far fewer lifetime finishes, and seven fewer fights.

Both fighters have high-level fight camps, but ATT is a much bigger fight school, with dozens of world champions. Roufusport has produced the Pettis brothers and not much else in recent years.

Prop Bets Available

This is a look at the most likely prop bets. We’ve weeded out any long shots.

Prop Bet Odds at Betonline.ag
Goes the Distance Yes -190 No +155
Kyoji by Points +150
Pettis by Points +185
Kyoji by TKO or DQ +450
Pettis by TKO or DQ +700

The oddsmakers anticipate a decision, and they see it going to Kyoji. Mostly, I agree. Both fighters have seen more decisions than finishes. Pettis hasn’t been finished by anyone since 2015, though Kyoji has been finished in two of his three of his mma losses.

Fighters Recent Bouts and UFC Performances

Both fighters have been in the UFC. Kyoji went 6-1, losing only to Demetrious Johnson via armbar. He dominated the division with two TKO finishes in the UFC.

Pettis went 9-4 in total, losing to champions like Henry Cejudo, but also getting finished by Ryan Benoit and Alex Caceres. His performances were mixed from 2014-2016.

Pettis Recent Bouts

Pettis is on a four fight winning streak which has included gaining the Bellator Bantamweight belt. He’s finished only one of his last four. Kyoji is a noticeable jump in competition from his last three Bellator opponent’s, namely Alfred Khashakyan who hasn’t defeated any high level fighters.

Kyoji Horiguchi Recent Bouts

Kyoji has defended his Rizin belt numerous times, defeating Darrion Caldwell twice, Ben Nguyen of ONE FC and most recently, 16-2 Kai Asakura.

Please Note:
He’s been more active against better opponents and is finishing fights, three of his last six.

He took a kickboxing match vs Tenshin Nasukawa, a prodigy with knockout power, losing a decision. Going the distance with Tenshin is a feather in the cap of Kyoji’s striking.

Fight Analysis for Horiguchi vs Pettis

Pettis has faster striking than Kyoji, but I’m not sure if it’s higher quality. Kyoji shows more knockouts in his career and gets hit far less often. In the UFC, Kyoji was hit 2.4 times a minute on average, while Pettis was hit 2.9 times per minute.

Pettis’s ground game continues to struggle. His decision losses were widely related to his wrestling, and while Kyoji isn’t a grappler, he is fully capable of takedowns and submission victories. I don’t see an obvious path to the win for Pettis.

Final Bellator Betting Pick

I see a decision win for Kyoji as most likely, so if you’re interested in a slight gamble, think about Kyoji by points prop at +150. My pick is Kyoji Horiguchi money line at – 163. He’s more active, more consistent, and he’s training at a team that has consistently produced more champions.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Emmanuel Sanchez vs Jeremy Kennedy

Our co-main event shows two featherweight contenders going head to head. Emmanuel is the #47 featherweight world wide, and Kennedy is the #77. Both fighters are coming off of losses in Bellator.

Tale of the Tape for Sanchez vs Kennedy

Fighter Emmanuel Sanchez Jeremy Kennedy
Moneyline -200 +170
Age 31 29
Height 5’9’’ 5’11
Reach/Stance 70’’ 71”
Record 20-6 16-3
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -260 U +200
Fighter Training Camp Roufusport MMA Xtreme Couture

Kennedy takes the youth, height and reach advantages. In his last five wins, he’s finished three fights.

Sanchez is a Bellator mainstay, and has finished three of his last five wins via submission.

Prop Bets Available

Prop Bet Odds at Betonline.ag
Goes the Distance Yes -220 No +180
Sanchez by Points +100
Kennedy by Points +300
Sanchez by Submission +400
Kennedy by TKO or DQ +700

Sanchez is a submission fighter, so his likelihood of a KO is low. None of the props look particularly enticing.Especially when considering each fighter has a near 50/50 split of finishes and decisions over their last ten.

Fighters Recent Bouts and UFC Performances

Kennedy went 3-0 in the UFC before losing to now champion Volkanovski via TKO. Sanchez has been in Bellator the majority of his career. He’s lost six times for the promotion to varying levels of fighter.

Sanchez Recent Performances

Sanchez lost to champion Patricio Pitbull in April, 2021 via guillotine, which was a surprise considering Sanchez’s focus on BJJ.

He lost again to 15-3 Mads Burnell in July. Mads is another Xtreme Couture fighter and Kennedy’s teammate. Other than Saul Rogers, Mads hasn’t beaten the same caliber opponent as Kennedy.

Sanchez looked tired.

His 2021 run has lacked the aggressive grappling that got him to this level.

Kennedy Recent Performances

Kennedy’s loss to Adam Borics was his last bout. Borics is a solid and aggressive striker and grappler with wins over Aaron Pico and Teordor Nikolov.

Kennedy had a three fight winning streak inside his last five, with a revenge win over Luis Laurentino  in PFL.
Kennedy has looked good, but continues to falter against young athletes.

Final Betting Pick

Kennedy hasn’t shown up against better athletes, but he’s new to Xtreme Couture, so maybe the change of camp will change his training style. Emmanuel is a quality fighter, but like many Roufusport athletes, too much sparring has left them battered with their best years behind them.

I pick Jeremy Kennedy, seeing him win a likely decision. The prop bet ‘Kennedy by points’ is enticing, but his underdog payout at $1.70 per dollar wagered is plenty and covers any lucky punches.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Josh Hill vs Jared Scoggins

Two evenly matched Bantamweights look to break into the Bellator rankings. Hill is coming off a loss, while Scoggins is in the midst of a winning streak.

Tale of the Tape for Hill vs Scoggins

Fighter Josh Hill Jared Scoggins
Moneyline -110 -110
Age 35 26
Height 5’6’’ 5’7’’
Reach 66.5’’ 69’’
Record 20-4 10-1
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -300 U +240
Fighter Training Camp House of Champions Revolution MMA and Warrior Way

Scoggins is younger, taller and after reach. Hill wins in the experience department. Over their last five bouts, Scoggins has one stoppage while Hill has two total. This makes the -300 over prop look like a good bet at $0.33 return per dollar wagered.

Recent Fight Performances

Hill has beaten the UFC’s Erik Perez via decision at Bellator 244. His finish of Jesse Arnett wasn’t a surprise, and if he can pull it off, Scoggins would be the toughest fighter Arnett has finished.

Scoggins is on a five fight winning streak after an upset decision loss. He’s competing against local level fighters, and Hill is a step up in competition.

Fight Analysis and Final Betting Pick

Scoggins is the younger brother of Justin Scoggins and trains alongside the UFC veteran. It’s clear he has the framework to be a higher level athlete. Hill is 35, and he’s in the twilight of most featherweight’s and bantamweight’s career.

Hill’s performances are improving, but even in his decision wins he’s taking significant damage. I pick Jared Scoggins, though I’m not confident in any prop bet, and will likely avoid any parlays with this bout.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Johnny Eblen vs Collin Huckbody

It’s rare to see the kind of heavy favorite in MMA that we’re seeing with Eblen. He’s an undefeated fighter with five pro knockout finishes. Let’s see if he lives up to the hype.

Tale of the Tape for Elben vs Huckbody

Fighter Johnny Eblen Collin Huckbody
Moneyline -1800 +900
Age 29 27
Height 6’1’’ 6’3’’
Reach 74’’ 76’’
Record 9-0 10-3
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -125 U -105
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team MMA LAB

Huckbody has all-natural advantages to his favor, including experience. Both fighters train out of world-class gyms, and both fighters have strong finishing percentages.

Huckbody has six submission victories to his name, more than anyone Eblen has faced to date. Huckbody has also faced more high level fighters, and has been active as an amatuer fighter three years earlier than Eblen.

Final Betting Pick

While Eblen’s undefeated status gives his a serious favorite position, I’ll be taking a small bet on Huckbody. He’s paying out at nine times his money, he’s a growing submission artist training alongside Khabib and DC, and he’s the biggest opponent Eblen has faced. There are too many factors pointing to a Huckbody win to pass up on that +900 payout!

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Alexander Shabliy vs Bobby King

Both fighters are on serious winning streaks, but Shabliy’s favorite status comes from a series of dominant wins and early first round knockouts. His last loss was highly controversial, and his finishing percentage across 20 wins is 85%.

Tale of the Tape for Shabliy vs King

Fighter Alexander Shabliy Bobby King
Moneyline -1200 +800
Age 28 37
Height 5’9’’ 5’9’’
Reach/Stance 70’’, Orthodox 70’’, NA
Record 20-3 10-3
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -150 U +120
Fighter Training Camp Peresvet FT Koa Kingdom

King is older and less experienced, but all other factors are similar. The under is a +120, but only because Shabliy’s last three wins have been via decision. Bobby King has been knocked out twice, both early in his career 2016-2017.

Fighter’s Recent Performances

King has two finishes over his last four wins. He defeated the 5-2 Samson Phommabout at Fierce FC in 2020 via standing knockout, and given the right situation, King has displayed knockout power. His last loss to the 9-6 Fabio Serrao was in LFA in 2019. Fabio has solid grappling but was 37 at the time of their bout.

Alexander Shabliy’s last three fights have been among the toughest opponents of his career, including Alfie Davis, a 14-3 Bellator veteran. Outside of Bellator, Shabliy has displayed knockout striking and very high-level submission skills. A submission from Shabliy looks likely after a review of both fighters’ submission and wrestling skills.

Final Betting Pick

Alexander Shabliy pays out at $0.08 per dollar wagered. Look for the right parlay to tack this one onto. Alexander is a high-level fighter and will undoubtedly come with the right game plan to deal with King.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Kai Kamaka III vs John De Jesus

Kai is fresh out of the UFC, going 1-2-1 for the promotion. He came to the UFC a bit too early, and the 26 year old goes back to Bellator to develop some new skills. Jesus is 2-1 in Bellator after a loss to Aaron Pico. He’s unproven against a Kamaka level fighter.

Tale of the Tape for Kamaka vs Jesus

Fighter Kai Kamaka III John De Jesus
Moneyline -190 +165
Age 26 31
Height 5’7’’ 5’9’’
Reach 69’’ 76’’
Record 8-4-1 14-9
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -205 U +165

Kamaka is younger with fewer total losses. Jesus is taller, has a longer reach, and significantly more experience.

Jesus is mainly a striker and will look to use his range to keep Kamaka at bay. Kamaka has trouble finishing fights and has only one finish in his professional career.

While De Jesus has an advantage in knockout power, I see Kai as likely to get the better of the majority of exchanges.

Final Betting Pick

This was a tough call but I see that the majority of Jesus’s finishes are late in the fight. Kamaka loves to make decisions. While neither fighter puts on performances that make me confident in a money line, I see an Over 2 ½ Rounds bet at -205 to be in a great position. You’ll take $0.48 per dollar wagered, and you’re aligning with the majority of both fighters’ lifetime performances.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Mike Hamel vs Killys Mota

The heavily hyped Mota lost his first two bouts inside his last three fights, once in LFA and once in Bellator. Meanwhile, Hamel has fought the who’s who of tough Bellator and LFA athletes, mostly losing to them via decision.

Tale of the Tape for Hamel vs Mota

Fighter Mike Hamel Killys Mota
Moneyline -125 +105
Age 29 31
Height 5’9’’ 5’11
Reach 68’’ 71’’
Record 8-5 12-2
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -155 U +125

Hamel is younger but gives up the reach, height, and experience advantages to Mota.

Mota trains at the newly crowned UFC champs gym, Teixeira MMA. Hamel trains at the lab, alongside world-class wrestlers and kickboxers alike.

Recent Fighter Performances

Hamel has lost four of his last seven bouts as he climbs in competition. However, his recent win over Bryce Logan was a showing of the kind of competition Hamel is ready for. He upset Logan with a Unanimous decision that showed a well-rounded MMA game.

Mota has lost two of his last three but defeated a number of rising stars, including then 6-0 Joao Carvalho.  His losses to Austin Hubbard and Derek Anderson revealed holes in his defensive striking, and the possibility that his chin is in question.

Final Betting Pick

Mota is still adapting to his new level of competition, and I suspect he’ll see the kind of trouble that Hamel has in fighting some of the world’s best.

Hamel’s team continued improvement, and heavy hands point to a win over Mota at -125.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Vinicius De Jesus vs Levan Chokheli

In this middleweight prelim, we see a submission fighter on a two fight skid in Jesus up against tough Georgian coming off his first career loss at a Bellator Debut.

Tale of the Tape for Jesus vs Chokheli

Fighter Vinicius De Jesus Levan Chokheli
Moneyline -130 +110
Age 31 25
Height 5’10 6’1’’
Reach 73” 73’’
Record 9-4 9-1
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -110 U -120

Levan takes the height and youth advantages in this classic striker vs grappler match-up. Levan is primarily a knockout artist, scoring all nine wins via TKO over local and low-quality competition.

De Jesus has won a number of decisions and submission victories across his career. His losses include names like the UFC’s Joaquin Buckley and Austin Vanderford, not easy fights to win. He’s a high-level blackbelt grappler, and he has wins over 10th Planet’s Justin Falk and multiple other competitive BJJ fighters.

Levan is simply unproven. The prop bets don’t give us much to work with on this one, so it’s an easy Vinicius De Jesus bet at -130, a $0.77 per dollar wagered return.

Justin Montalvo vs Jacob Bohn

The green but undefeated Montalvo takes on the hit and miss Jaocb Bohn.

Tale of the Tape for Montalvo vs Bohn

Fighter Justin Montalvo Jacob Bohn
Moneyline -225 +185
Age 25 32
Height NA 5’9’’
Reach NA 72’’
Record 3-0 10-7
Over/Under 1 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -155 U +125

Montalvo comes from the new Longo/Weidman MMA, racking up a 4-2 amateur record followed by his current three-fight finishing streak, with all three wins via TKO.

Jacob Bohn is also on a three-fight winning streak after losing two back to back for the first time since 2017. Bohn has been knocked out three times, and Montalvo makes it clear he’s bringing the intention of a knockout. Bohns grappling is in question, but he does have submission finishes on his record.

I’m unsure of Montalvo’s grappling. He lost on the ground in his amateur career and hasn’t faced a decent grappler to date. I’ll be taking the Under 2 ½ Rounds prop at +125, hoping Bohn either reveals a hole in Montalvo’s game, or the undefeated knockout artist does exactly what he came to do.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Spike Carlyle vs Dan Moret

Spike was the Combate Champion before moving to UFC to go 1-2 in the promotion. Dan is another former UFC fighter, who had the unfortunate luck of running into Gilbert Burns in his debut. He went 0-3 for UFC.

Tale of the Tape for Carlyle vs Moret

Fighter Spike Carlyle Dan Moret
Moneyline -110 -110
Age 28 35
Height 5’8’’ 6’0’’
Reach 71’’ 72’’
Record 12-3 15-6
Over/Under 1 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -200 +160

Dan is taller with a slight reach advantage, while Spike is seven years younger.
Both fighters work with unknown camps, with neither producing any other UFC allum. Carlyle hasn’t ever been finished, but Moret has, twice.

Recent Fight Performances

Carlyle is on a three fight winning streak with three finishes, two submissions and one knockout, since leaving the UFC.

He defeated JJ Ambrose for Cage Warriors in impressive fashion with a second round knockout right hook.

Moret is coming off a split decision Bellator debut and a knockout win over a 26-11 UAE fighter. Moret was inactive for two years prior to his last win, and looks less impressive than before. Clearly age is a factor.

Final Betting Pick

Spike at -110 is a steal. He has no losses outside of the UFC and his current winning streak is beyond impressive. Moret isn’t as technical a striker or grappler, and I don’t see an immediate path to victory for him in this bout.

I pick Spike Carlyle at -110, a $0.91 per dollar wagered payout. I didn’t consider the props, this money line is too good to pass up.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Kyle Crutchmer vs Oliver Enkamp

Enkamp is the only former UFC fighter to come in under a non-UFC opponent.

Tale of the Tape for Crutchmer vs Enkamp

Fighter Kyle Crutchmer Oliver Enkamp
Moneyline -145 +125
Age 28 30
Height 5’9’’ 6’0’’
Reach 68’’ 77’’
Record 7-1 10-2
Over/Under 2 ½ Rounds Prop Bet O -145 U +115

Crutchmer lost his third Bellator bout vs the 9-2 Kerman Lachinov. Enkamp’s only two losses were inside the UFC.

While Enkamp didn’t get much of a chance to get started in the UFC, his ground game isn’t bad at all. Crutchmer is also a submission focused fighter, so we’ll see sound grappling exchanges.

In fights between two dedicated grapplers, the over prop looks good.

The Over 2 ½ Rounds prop pays at $0.69 per dollar wagered and covers a majority of the fighters’ bouts versus other talented grapplers, such as Enkamp vs Taleb or Crutchmer vs Robert Gridron.

PLACE YOUR BETS NOW!

Bellator 272 Wrap Up

If you liked what we’re doing here, leave a comment and your email below for more betting picks. Bellator is becoming one of the best promotions for bettors. I love seeing the big underdogs and favorites on the card. Give us your thoughts and thanks for choosing thesportsgeek.com.

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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