Bellator 276 Full Card Betting Picks and MMA Odds

Bellator MMA Borics Burnell Red Background

The eleven fight bellator card includes seven fights that we think you shouldn’t pass up. Three undefeated fighters are being tested in the prelims, and the main card is stacked with top talent. In this MMA preview, we’ll look over all eleven fights, highlighting the MMA bets to make on March 12th, 2022. Click the green buttons to place your bets before 6:00 PM ET on fight night. 

Bellator 276 Main Event: Adam Borics vs Mads Burnell

We’ve covered this fight in detail under our Borics vs Burnell betting pick. Burnell is the superior grappler and possibly the more technical striker. Borics has power, but still lacks some of the finer points of MMA fighting and it’s serving him up near decisions and losses at the highest levels. 

A lot of intensity in this staredown.

Tale of the Tape for Borics vs Burnell

Fighter Adam ‘The Kid’ Borics  Mads Burnell
Age 28 28
Height 5’11’’ 5’8’’
Reach/Stance 70’’ Switch  69’’ Orthodox 
Record 17-1 16-3
Submissions/TKO  6/4 9/1
Fighter Training Camp Sanford MMA Xtreme Couture, Art Suave Copenhagen
Losses via Sub/TKO 1/0 2/1

Borics carries several advantages on paper and in his record, but Mads has fought better fighters and brings a more complete style to the cage. 

Bellator 276 Main Event Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Odds  
Adam Borics Money Line +185
Mads Burnell Money Line -225
Over 4 ½ Rounds -110
Under 4 ½ Rounds  -120
Goes the Distance ‘No’ -145
Mads by points  +175
Mads by Submission +175
Borics by Points +425
Mads Burnell -5.5 points  -145
Burnell in Round 1 by Submission +650
Borics in Round 2 by TKO +1400

Our Bellator 276 betting pick is the Mads Burnell money line at -225, a great payout for the future Bellator featherweight champion. 


Bellator 276 Co Main Event: Phil Davis vs Julius Anglickas 

This five round fight is for light heavyweight title contention. Davis beat Romero last September, a fight we called correctly, after losing to Nemkov in April. Nemkov and Bader are the only two men in Bellator to beat Davis. 

Anglickas lost to Nemkov in his last bout via fourth round submission. It ended his nine fight winning streak that included three Bellator wins and a win at DWCS in 2019. 

These two are determining who will get another shot at the champ. 

Tale of the Tape for Davis vs Anglickas

Fighter Phil ‘Mr. Wonderful’ Davis  Julius Anglickas 
Age 37 30
Height 6’2’’ 6’3’’
Reach/Stance 78’’ Orthodox  77’’ Orthdox 
Record 23-6-0, 1 NC  10-2
Submissions/TKO  5/8 4/3
Fighter Training Camp Alliance MMA St Charles MMA

Davis has much more experience, especially against top level fighters. They are similar in size, but Julius has seven years of youth on Davis. Davis fought in the UFC seven years ago, from 2010-2015. Anglickas didn’t even start his pro career until 2016. 

Phil Davis has never been finished, while Anglickas has been submitted in both losses, something I’m sure Phil Davis will look to exploit. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Odds  
Davis Money Line -300
Anglickas Money Line +240
Over 2 ½ Rounds -220
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +180
Phil Davis by Points  -120
Phil Davis by KO +475
Phil Davis by Submission  +700
Anglickas by Points  +450
Anglickas by Submission  +1050
Davis inside the Distance  +250
Davis by Round 1 TKO  +1200
Anglickas in Round 1 +900

Davis is an obvious favorite, and his submission win prop pays highly. Given Anglicaks tendency toward making mistakes on the ground, it’s tempting. Anglickas has never been knocked out, so any associated props don’t do much for me. 

Fight Prediction and Breakdown 

Look no further than the Nemkov fights with both Davis an Anglickas. At times, it looked like Phil could beat Nemkov, especially in their last performance. Meanwhile, Anglickas was devastated for three rounds leading up to his submission loss. 
Our betting pick is Phil Davis at -300, a $0.33 payout per dollar wager on a UFC and Bellator veteran. 

Bellator 276 Main Card Betting Picks

Bellator’s main card features two undefeated fighters and several former UFC fighters. The level of talent on the average Bellator card has gone up five fold since 2020. 

Johnny Eblen vs John Salter 

Salter is a former UFC fighter that was released from the division in 2021 after three fights. He’s 8-2 in Bellator losing only to now champion Mousasi and former champion Lovato Jr. Salter has dominated the middleweight division with superior grappling.
He faces Johnny Eblen, an undefeated fighter from American Top Team ona  ten fight winning streak. It’s not completely a striker versus grappler battle, but Eblen has the upperhand on the feet and Salter has an advantage in submission work, but not necessarily wrestling. 

Tale of the Tape for Eblen vs Salter 

Fighter Johnny ‘The Human Cheat Code’ Eblen John Salter 
Age 30 36
Height 6’1’’ 6’1’’
Reach 74’’  74’’
Record 10-0 18-5
Submissions/TKO  1/5 9/5
Fighter Training Camp American Top Team Salty Dog BJJ, Gym-0

Both fighters have a near 60% finishing ratio among wins, though Salter’s five losses have come by four submissions and one TKO loss back in 2010. Salter has been active since 2008, and is six years older than Eblen. All physical factors are similar, though Eblen has the better training environment, as Salter is also a BJJ coach, which must take time from his fight camp and performances. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Odds  
Eblen Money Line -300
Salter Money Line +240
Over 2 ½ Rounds +100
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -130

Eblen is the favorite and the under looks good to the oddsmakers, indicating a finish. 
Salter hasn’t been knocked out on his feet in 12 years and if Mousasi didn’t do it, I’ll be surprised if Eblen can. Eblen has a hype train surrounding his finishes, but Salter is easily the best fighter he’s faced; certainly the craftiest. Salter has seen one decision in his last five, and Eblen has seen four in his last six fights. I think the Over is a decent bet statistically. 

Fight Prediction and MMA Breakdown 

Satler has struggled against the best grapplers he’s faced, including a few Pro BJJ matches where he was finished by Jacob Couch and Elder Cruz. The best ground fighter he’ defeated over the last ten fights is Costello Van Steenis, a young fighter out of KOPS in the Netherlands. 
I see Eblen winning the striking and counter wrestling Salter all night, defending the takedowns and ending up in top control without shooting for takedowns of his own. Salter’s kickboxing has always needed work, but his chin is one of the best in the business. Think about the over if you’re looking for a payout, but our betting pick is Eblen at -300. 

Jay Jay Wilson vs Gadzhi Rabadanov 

The undefeated Maori Kid Wilson has finished all but one of his pro bouts. Gadzhi is his toughest test to date, with eleven finishes across 22 fights. The Russian’s last loss was at Eagle FC against Mehdi Dakaev in 2020. 

Tale of the Tape for Wilson vs Rabadanov 

Fighter Jay Jay ‘The Maori Kid’ Wilson Gadzhi Rabadanov 
Age 24 28
Height 5’11’’ 5’9’’
Reach 74’’ 72’’
Record 8-0 16-4-2
Submissions/TKO  4/3 5/6
Fighter Training Camp Alliance MMA  Mamishev Team 

Jay Jay is a BJJ Black belt and the likelihood of a Rabadanov submission win is low. Wilson also has the reach and height advantage. Rabadanov has more stand up striking finishes overall, and probably the better stand up game. Wilson will be forced to employ offensive wrestling, which Mamishev fighters struggle with. The only active pros Gadzhi works with are Artur Aliev, and Tural Ragimov. Both are coming off losses in 2021. 
Alliance MMA is quickly becoming one of the best places to train as a fighter focused on submission work and ground strikes in the cage. 

Betting Odds and Odds History 

Bet Available at Odds  
Wilson Money Line +125
Rabadanov Money Line -155
Over 2 ½ Rounds -155
Under 2 ½ Rounds  +125

I’m surprised at the Wilson underdog position. His last win over Pedro Carvalho was definitive and I guess the belief is that Rabadanov can defend the takedown and prove the better striker.
More so, I’m surprised at the under. Wilson has finished seven of eight wins and Rabadonov has finished eleven of sixteen wins, but only two of his last six.
Our betting pick is the Maori Kid, Jay Jay Wilson at +125. They’re severely underestimating his skill. Many bettors move the line when they see a Russian name, but lineage isn’t the only thing that wins a fight. 

Bellator 276 Prelim Betting Picks

For our prelim bouts, we’ve focused on delivering the odds and betting picks, bringing you key elements of each pick. 

Alex Polizzi vs Jose Augusto Azavedo 

Polizzi has bounced back from his first ever loss to Julius Anglickas in 2020 with two straight wins, including a win over then undefeated Grant Neal. 
He faces Azavedo, a Pitbull Brothers submission fighter coming off his third career loss via TKO. Alex represents the new school BJJ, leg lock centered wrestlers. Jose Azavedo is part of the old guard, BJJ centered fighters that work the submission over all other opportunities. 

Betting Odds and Fight Pick

Bet Available at Odds  
Polizzi Money Line -150
Azavedo Money Line +120
Over 2 ½ Rounds +105
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -135

I wouldn’t bet the under if only because BJJ fighters can often cancel eachother out if one doesn’t have superior conditioning. Polizzi is the more well muscled, explosive fighter but Azavedo rarely gets tired in the cage. 
Polizzi is the favorite, and given the quality of his opponents I’ll have to agree. He’s submitted tougher fighters and demonstrated a better blend of striking and grappling than Azavedo, who is happy to take dozens of punches to close the gap like a grappling Homer Simpson. 
Our betting pick is Alex Polizzi at -150, a $67 payout per $100 wager. 

Romero Cotton vs Freddy Sandoval 

This is a fight to beef up Cotton’s record after his original opponent Lance Wright withdrew. Cotton is a college wrestler, and he’s finished four of his five fights in the clinch or on the ground, each for Bellator starting with his pro debut over Aaron Rodriguez. 
Sandoval is a 5-6-1 fighter out of 10th Planet Albuquerque. He stopped fighting in 2009 and started up with boxing last year, losing by TKO. He’s an older man who’s taking a loss on this one for no particular reason. 

Betting Odds and Fight Pick

Bet Available at Odds  
Cotton Money Line -1300
Sandoval Money Line +675
Over 2 ½ Rounds +240
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -300

Cotton is a major favorite, as he should be. Training shows him in peak physical condition, working with the best in the world at various gyms. Cotton could be a real threat to the Bellator Welterweight division, and if this guy learns to kickbox at all, we’ll see plenty more for the Kansas wrestler Romero Cotton. Look to parlay his bet at -1300. 

Diana Avsaragova vs Kyra Batara 

In the only women’s MMA match on the card, we have another one sided affair. The undefeated Avsaragova faces Kyra ‘Mogwai’ Batara, a tenth planet BJJ fighter focused on submission victories. 
Avsaragova has taken the local Russian flyweight competition by storm, but Kyra is easily her best opponent to date. 

Betting Odds and Fight Pick

Bet Available at Odds  
Avsaragova Money Line -450
Batara Money Line +350

Batara is 3.5 times your money on a fighter with five finishes anda three fight winning streak. She’s fought tougher fighters than Avsaragova before, and both fighters are coming in on short notice. Kyra has been reworking her fight game for three years, and her return is highly anticipated by those in the 10th Planet MMA community. 
Our betting pick is the underdog, Kyra Batara at +350. 

James Adcock vs Cody Law 

James is 1-1 over his last two. He’s finished every fighter he’s beaten, and he’s also been finished in every loss. Cody Law is an American Top Team fighter who’s been undefeated in five professional and five amatuer bouts. 

Betting Odds and Fight Pick

Bet Available at Odds  
Adcock Money Line +800
Law Money Line -1600
Over 1 ½ Rounds +235
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -295 

Cody has three pro finishes in the first round, and Adcock’s last eight fights have ended in the first round. All signs point to the Under 1 ½ Rounds prop, a -295 pick. Law may try to drag it out to a decision, but Adcock offers a pace that doesn’t allow for many people to wait him out. Cody is also the best fighter Adcock has faced in his career by a long shot, and it would be a wonder for her to win. 


Roman Faraldo vs Kalvin Rayford 

Faraldo is yet another undefeated fighter facing a mid level opponent. Faraldo has won six pro and six amatuer fights all in a row, including nine knockouts across all bouts. Rayford is 36 and trains at a moderate quality school in Oklahoma. He just lost to Chris Brown in LFA last April in the biggest challenge of his career to date. 

Betting Odds and Fight Pick

Bet Available at Odds  
Faraldo Money Line -800
Rayford Money Line +500
Over 1 ½ Rounds +190
Under 1 ½ Rounds  -240

Fight tape of Faraldo shows that his striking and takedown defense are on the level to face much better opponents. He’s still padding his record, but I believe Rayford can at least survive the onslaught. Our betting pick is the Faraldo money line at -800, a great fight for a parlay ticket. Skip the over/under, because Rayford is durable, just not skilled enough to get the win. 

Jordan Howard vs Trevor Ward 

Howard has had a rocky career. He took a break from MMA after a two loss skid and won back to back boxing matches. He faces Trevor Ward, a grappler who’s lost five of his last seven bouts, including four losses by stoppage. 

Betting Odds and Fight Pick

Bet Available at Odds  
Howard Money Line -425
Ward Money Line +325
Over 2 ½ Rounds -105
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -125

This is a classic striker versus grappler match up, except Ward isn’t the strongest submission artist. Howard hasn’t been submitted to date, and his improved boxing should keep Ward on the back foot. Ward’s only path to victory is a takedown, or catching the sub off a Howard knockdown, neither of which i’d like to bet on. Bet lightly on the Jordan Howard moneyline of -425. He’s a strong favorite on paper, but I’m only about 65% confident in his ability to win. 

Josh Augustine vs Josh Weston 

Weston is the second fighter with a losing record on this card. He’s a forty year old powerhouse that’s fumbled his last three fights with knockouts and a submission loss. 
He faces Josh Augustine, a fighter with five knockout wins. Augustine loses fights to high quality strikers. 

Betting Odds and Fight Pick

Bet Available at Odds  
Augustine Money Line -350
Weston Money Line +275
Over 2 ½ Rounds +160
Under 2 ½ Rounds  -200

After watching fight tape, I’m more concerned with Augustine’s win than I thought I’d be. Weston has power, and Josh has been defeated by aggressive kickboxing in the past. Fight tape shows Weston has the tools to win, but Josh should take the early finish. I’m taking the under 2 ½ Rounds prop at -200, a $0.50 per dollar wagered payout that aligns with four of the last five fights on both fighters’ records. 

Bellator 276 Betting Picks Wrap Up 

I expect this level of talent from Bellator moving forward. Their prelim fights still have plenty of would be one sided bouts, but the majority of fights are competitive. 
For more top combat sports and MMA bets through the weekend, see the blog for all five shows. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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