Bellator Paris: Bader vs. Kongo 2 Odds and Picks

Bader Vs Kongo 2 Bellator MMA

This thirteen fight Bellator Paris card includes many of the top Bellator stars, like Yoel Romero, Soren Bak and Ryan Bader. Bellator Paris betting odds include money lines and over under props for most fighters. We’re taking a close look at each fight so you can place the top betting picks for Bellator Paris, May 6th, 2022 at 11:30 AM ET on Bovada or another of our recommended MMA Betting sites

Top Bellator Paris Card Betting Picks 

Before we dive into all thirteen bouts, here’s a look at our top picks of the evening. 

  • Main Event Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds, Bader vs Kongo 2 -110
  • Top Parlay Pick: Lorenzo Larkin -350
  • Upset of the Night: Yves Landu +130
  • High Value Bet: Will the Fight Go the Distance, No, Babene vs Shipman, -290


Bellator Paris Odds for Cheick Kongo vs Ryan Bader 2

Bet  Odds
Bader Money Line -425
Kongo Money Line  +290
Over 2.5 Rounds -110
Under 2.5 Rounds -130

Kongo was a +465 in his first fight with Bader, one that ended by No contest eye poke in 2019. Other than a split decision loss to Tim Johnson, Kongo has won eight of his last ten fights, ranging from +450 odds to -310. Bader lost to Corey Anderson and vadim Nemkov in his last two fights at 205, but has won nine of his last eleven bouts, ranging from +180 to -465.

Ryan’s Upset Losses and Wins

Odds makers had Ryan Bader as the favorite over Corey Anderson at -175. He was demolished in 51 seconds. Prior to that, his last upset loss was during his UFC run. Bader upset Phil Davis at +117, and Moldavsky at +180. His fight with Kongo was competitive until the NC stoppage where Bader was a -500 favorite. 

Kongo’s Losses In Bellator

Kongo has lost in Bellator to Minakov, Lawal, and Johnson. All three men are heavy hitters with moderate wrestling. Minakov is the most focused on ground fighting, but in each fight, the bout went to a decision. Kongo is tough to stop. He was knocked out at the UFC level nine years ago, but has become a crafty defensive striker since that time. Expect Kongo to keep an even pace against the aging Bader. 

Can Ryan Bader Finish Kongo at Bellator Paris?

Bader has been knocked out in two of his last four showings and has racked up zero finishes himself. Kongo isn’t a pressure striker like Anderson, but he does have power, and that will keep Bader tentative. The last Bader knockout was Emelianenko in 2019, and three years is a long time for a fighter at 38. 

MMA Betting Analysis for Bellator Paris Main Event

Bader’s days of quick finishes are behind him, as he edges into Arlovski territory- slow methodical fight wins. Kongo will likely lose, but I think the better bet is in the Over 2.5 Rounds prop. Neither of these fighters have faced a five round decision in 4 years. You’re getting the benefit of a championship round finish or a boring fight that goes the distance between fighters with a combined age of 84 years. 
Our Over 2.5 rounds pick pays out $90.91 per $100 wager. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Alex Polizzi vs Yoel Romero 

Bet  Odds
Polizzi Money Line +133
Romero Money Line  -162
Over 2.5 Rounds -150
Under 2.5 Rounds +110
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -130
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -110

Polizzi has lost only once, to Julius Anglickas at -104. He’s upset Grant Neal and Rafael Carvalho in Bellator, while ranging from -225 to +165 across all bouts. Romero was a +130 in his loss to Phil Davis, and has now lost 4 straight, ranging from -160 to +245, losing each fight via decision. 

Polizzi’s Fighting Style and Level

Polizzi is primarily a high level grappler. He’s won via submission three times across his last six fights, and though he has knockout wins, he’s competitive as a submission fighter at the highest level. The one loss of his career is to Bellator light heavyweight #3 Julius Anglickas. Anglickas was strong, and powered through Polizzi in an aggressive decision win. 

Yoel’s Style and MMA Strategy

Betting on Yoel is getting tougher. He’s been patient in his last four fights, less about chasing down and beating fighters, and more about countering and absorbing punishment. Polizzi is much smaller than him and that’s work consideration. Yoel will look to take whatever Polizzi dishes out and run him over. 

MMA Betting Analysis for Bellator Paris Co-Main Event

I’m getting into the mind of Romero for this one. Polizzi is good, but protected. I see a frustrated knockout artist that hasn’t found a way to be aggressive in the cage for five fights running. I think Romero is coming like a bat out of hell on this one. He knows his career is on the line. One more boring fight and no one will want to see him in the ring. 

Betting on Polizzi’s Submission Work

Romero has never been submitted. He was a D-1 wrestler and has stunning takedown defense. It’s a bad match up for Polizzi. For that reason, we’re going with the favorite, Yoel Romero, at -162, a $61 payout per $100 wagered!

Bellator Paris Odds for Pedro Carvalho vs Piotr Niedzielski

Bet  Odds
Carvalho Money Line -150
Niedzielski Money Line  +115
Over 1.5 Rounds -155
Under 1.5 Rounds +15
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes +130
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -170

Niedzielski is undefeated in his last 8 fights ranging back to 2017. This is his Bellator debut after winning a -450 title defense at Babilon MMA. Carvalho has gone 2-2 over his last four, losing to two of Bellator’s best featherweights at +114 and +550. He’s 5-2 in Bellator overall, seeing favorite status of -357, while winning four other fights via upset victory. 

Pedro Carvalho’s Losses 

Carvalho has lost by TKO in his last two defeats. His gym, SBG, struggles with technical kickboxing, and seems to leave the same defensive openings across their fighter pool. I wouldn’t say that Pedro’s chin is in question, but I will say that Piotr has the knockout power required to finish Pedro if he’s not on point. 

Piotr Niedzielski Losses and Fight Style

Piotr has some decision losses and a submission loss. I’m sure Pedro will be looking to take advantage of that submission game, but Piotr loves to catch fighters looking for takedowns in a guillotine choke. He’s finished four of them in his twenty fight career, a 20% guillotine finish rate. Pitor has devastating haymakers, and Carvalho will need to do a better job at head movement and getting off the centerline to stay awake. 

MMA Analysis for Carvalho vs Niedzielski

Carvalho is a good fighter, but against an athlete like Piotr I can see him falling short. He rose to power quickly in Bellator and was quickly stopped at his first two trips to the top ten. Niedzielski isn’t a genius striker. His strength is in BJJ, where I think Carvalho has him beat. But I see their ground games negating each other, and forced into a stand up battle Carvalho should fall short. 
Our betting pick is Pitor Niedzielski via upset at +115, a $115 return per $100 wagered. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Bertaud vs Sadura

Bet  Odds
Bertaud Money Line -170
Sadura Money Line  +130
Over 2.5 Rounds -165
Under 2.5 Rounds +125
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -150
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No EVEN

Both fighters are 1-0 in Bellator with mixed results outside of the promotion. Bertaud is 3-3. She lost in a Muay Thai match to UFC champion Germaine de Randamie in 2006, and has since gone on to lose twice via ground finishes. Sadura has lost to high profile fighters like Sinead Kavanaugh, but has good finishing power. 

Bertaud MMA Strengths and Weaknesses

As a Muay Thai fighter, Bertaud is focused on keeping fights standing. Her amatuer MMA career ranges back to 2015, a nine year separation from her 2006 pro kickboxing matches. She’s been training a long time, but has losses to fighters like Jessica Borga when she was 1-2 (now 3-4) and if the fight goes to the ground, Bertaud isn’t dominant and struggles with wrestling up. 

Katarzyna Sadura’s Ground Game

Sadura’s last two wins were via ground strikes and submission. She’s finished four fights on the ground as a pro and I say she has a solid advantage. However, she’s been knocked out in two of her last seven fights. Bertaud could land a lucky shot that ends it all. 

MMA Analysis for Katarzyna vs Bertaud

Katarzyna’s last five fights include only one decision win. She’s been knocked out or got the TKO in all other bouts throughout her entire pro career. Bertaud has won two decisions in 2019 and 2020. She has no professional knockouts, but she has the kill to knockout the right fighter. We’re looking at the “Fight Goes to Decision, No” prop bet at EVEN, a 1:1 Return on your bet. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Lorenz Larkin vs Stewart

Bet  Odds
Larkin Money Line -350
Stewart Money Line  +260
Over 2.5 Rounds -150
Under 2.5 Rounds +110
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -130
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -110

Larkin is a Millennia MMA fighter who’s 5-0 over his last five fights. He struggled against Paul Daley and Douglas Lima, but Bellator’s new guard can’t hold a candle to the one of the only UFC athletes to beat Neil Magny and Jorge Masvidal. Stewart is new to Bellator and is likely to get brutalized. 

Lorenzo Larkin vs World Class Fighters

Larkin has beaten many of the best Bellator 185 has to offer, including Koreshkov and Carvalho. He took a break from fighting in 2020, but it’s clear he’s looking to play gatekeeper for the 185 division, not fighting the champ even though he could have that fight with ease. Larkin went 5-5 for the UFC, winning four of his last five bouts for the promotion, including three knockouts. 

Who is Kyle Stewart?

Kyle went 0-2 for the UFC in 2019. He fought for LFA, DWCS, and recently XMMA. He’s gone 2-2 over his last four, losing to fighters that are middle of the road at best. Stewart’s best attribute is his knockout power, and he’s employed it in three of his last five fights. Larkin can be knocked out, but Stewart doesn’t have the technical kickboxing expertise to make it a good Bellator Paris betting pick. 

Bellator Paris Betting Pick for Stewart vs Larkin

Larkin has been knocked out twice since 2009, both times by top tier middleweights. The odds that Stewart lands his lucky shot are low. Larkin will do what he does to most men, outwork them. His decision wins over his last five fights and his clinch work against Jorge Masvidal will all come into play on Friday. Bet Larkin, our parlay pick of the night, at -350 for a $28 payout per $100 wagered. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Landu vs Hughes 

Bet  Odds
Landu Money Line +130
Hughes Money Line  -170
Over 2.5 Rounds -105
Under 2.5 Rounds -135
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes EVEN
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -140

Yves Landu is 2-2 over his last four, including a flying knee win over  Terry Brazier at Bellator 248. He’s been active since 2010 and at 35 he’s nearing the twilight of his pro career. Gavin Hughes has struggled as he’s climbed in competition, but he’s a powerhouse at 155. He’s also 2-2 over his last four, with a 10-2 record overall. 

Yves Landu Losses and Finishes

Landu has only been finished once in his last five losses. He was submitted in 2012, but has since improved his ground defense dramatically. He was knocked out at RIZIN, and has two submission wins over his last six fights, indicating his long time switch from striker to MMA fighter. 

Hughes Competition Level to Date

Hughes lost to 9-5 Scatizzi and 19-9 Martin van Staden. Both times he was finished by middle of the road fighters. His wins over Mohammad Yahya and Deon Brunning are the biggest of his career, both men have had under six fights. His other wins include 0-7 Alejandro Ferrer and 3-14 David Stone. Hughes will need to make a big jump in ability to manage Landu. 

MMA Analysis and Betting Pick

Landu will likely look to use defensive grappling and muay thai style kickboxing to face off with Hughes. Landu will have an advantage in submissions but a disadvantage in wrestling. Overall, Hughes hasn’t faced fighters of this caliber. Expect Landu to take home the win. Our upset of the night is Yves Landu at +130, a $130 payout per $100 wagered. 


Bellator Paris Odds for Babene vs Shipman

Bet  Odds
Gregory Babene Money Line +140
Mike Shipman Money Line  -185
Over 1.5 Rounds -115
Under 1.5 Rounds -125
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes +205
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -290

Shipman is 1-2 over his last three fights, 5-2 for Bellator overall. He’s a strong finisher against fighters who aren’t on his level, but has struggled to win against any of the Bellator notables. He faces 38 year old Gregory Babene, a fighter who’s on a six fight winning streak and has finished his last eight wins via submission. 

Submission Grappler verses MMA Finisher

Shipman is well rounded. And his long arms make for great D’arce choke wins. Babene’s last loss was via a Brabo choke, another name for a D’arce. I think it’s possible that either fighter will find a submission finish at a moment’s notice. 
Babene has been knocked out before, but not since prior to 2010. Both fighter’s have long and competitive careers, but it’s clear Babene has faced (and lost to) better competition overall. 

Bellator Paris Betting Pick for Shipman vs Banbene

Shipman has a great jab. He reminds me of Matt Brown. Forward moving, aggressive in the clinch, and capable of punishing fighters who end up shooting for takedowns. 
Babene must work into wrestling positions, and it costs him. He’s been choked in his last three losses as a result. Still, Babene has only lost once since 2012. Our betting pick is Will the Fight Go the Distance, No, a High Value Bet at -290. This bet offers a payout of $34 per $100 wagered. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Long vs Gouti 

Bet  Odds
Lewis Long Money Line -110
Thibault Gouti Money Line  -120
Over 1.5 Rounds -135
Under 1.5 Rounds -105
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes +150
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -200

Long is 2-1 over his last three for Bellator. He’s finished six of his last seven wins by submission and his BJJ focused style is too much for the majority of fighters. Gouti is a Greg Jackson’s fighter who was released after a 1-5 UFC run including two submission losses. 

Gouti’s Submission Defense

Gouti relies on takedowns in the majority of his wins. He was undefeated until his TUF 22 appearance, and then was submitted quickly. His submission defense improved dramatically in his UFC run, but he hasn’t faced any notable BJJ fighters over his last three wins. 

MMA Analysis and Betting Pick for Gouti vs Long

This is a close fight with Long’s submission skill keeping Gouti at bay and Gouti’s boxing being too much for Long. However, Long has been knocked out twice in a string of short bouts with decent strikers. The under 1.5 Rounds prop fits with all of Long’s fights over his last ten bouts. The under pays $95 per $100 wager. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Soren Bak vs Charlie Leary 

Bet  Odds
Bak Money Line -1100
Leary Money Line  +600
Over 2.5 Rounds -190
Under 2.5 Rounds +145
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -160
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No +120

Bak is the favorite for the most one sided fight on the card. He deserves a title shot, and his wins over Paddy Pimblett, Terry Brazier and other 155 pound stars makes him a danger to anyone. Leary is 39 years old, and has lost every other bout for his last eight. He has the occasional TKO win, but is past his prime. 

Soren Bak Betting Pick

Soren Bak money line as a parlay pick is the obvious choice. The -1100 is a fine addition to any Parlay bet. I believe he will win in Under 2.5 Rounds, but finishing Leary before the bell isn’t Bak’s primary concern. Expect Leary to swing for the fences and Bak to hold him down for multiple rounds. Bet the Money line and play it safe.

Bellator Paris Odds for Verchere vs Camara 

Bet  Odds
Verchere Money Line -115
Camara Money Line  -115
Over 2.5 Rounds -105
Under 2.5 Rounds +135
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes +120
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No -160

On paper this is an evenly matched bout. Both fighters have knockouts and submission finishes against lower level fighters, and both men are coming off their first loss after stepping up in competition. Even watching fight tape shows even levels of skill. Our betting pick is the prop Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes at +120. These fighters have plenty of finishes over debuting pros, but against fighters with talent they tend to go the distance. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Letho Duclos vs Quabbas 

Bet  Odds
Letho Money Line -120
Quabbas Money Line  -106
Over 2.5 Rounds -150
Under 2.5 Rounds +110
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -150
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No +110

Letho is out of the fight, but we’ll analyze this as if Duclos has similar stats. 
Quabbas is undefeated but comes in as a slight underdog to Duclos. The French fighter Duclos has a submission loss, but is coming off a stoppage of an 0-1 opponent. Letho is out of Kongo smashing club, the same gym as the title contender. I think the better training environment should help him take the win. Bet Quabbas at -106. 

Bellator Paris Odds for Barton vs Diatta 

Bet  Odds
Barton Money Line +193
Diatta Money Line  -260
Over 2.5 Rounds -175
Under 2.5 Rounds +135
Will the Fight Go the Distance, Yes -140
Will the Fight Go the Distance, No EVEN

Diatta is undefeated at 8-0 including a string of two Bellator wins, upsetting Dominique Wooding. Barton has lost two of his last three. Diatta is a huge step up in competition. While Barton has power, it’s clear that his submission skill and ground fighting will overwhelm Barton early. Bet Diatta at -260. This fight is a possible parlay bet alongside Soren Bak and Larkin. 

Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.