On Sunday, October 17th, NASCAR’s Cup Series will race at Texas Motor Speedway for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.
This event marks the 7th race of the postseason, the first race of the Round of 8, and the 33rd race overall in the 2021 season.
Kyle Larson is the large betting favorite to win this race according to NASCAR betting sites. However, we’re not here to pick the race winner. Instead, we’re hoping to snag some checkered flags on the best prop bets for the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500.
Texas Driver Matchups
In order to win these prop bets, you must pick which driver that you think will finish higher at Texas in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500:
A Monster run to the lead! 😏
— Chip Ganassi Racing (@CGRTeams) October 4, 2021
Alex Bowman (-115) vs Kurt Busch (-105)
Our first driver’s matchup pits two non-Playoff drivers in head-to-head action. Alex Bowman is favored in this battle as he was just eliminated at the conclusion of the Round of 12. Kurt Busch was eliminated at the end of the opening round.
I really like Kurt Busch in this driver prop bet.
In 36 starts at Texas, Busch has one win, three Top 5s, 23 Top 10s, and a 13.9 average finish. Alex Bowman has two Top 5s, two Top 10s, and a 23.7 average finish in 11 starts.
Busch is finishing 10 spots higher than Bowman on average. Furthermore, he has three times as many starts, but one less DNF than Alex (3). Additionally, Bowman crashed out of the spring race at this track last year.
Over the last five races, Busch has five straight Top 9s compared to Bowman who has two Top 10s and three finishes of 14th or worse.
Take Busch to win this head-to-head matchup as he should finish in the Top 8 to 10, whole Bowman scores a Top 15 result.
William Byron (-145) vs Kevin Harvick (+120)
Just like with the first driver matchup, we have another one with two drivers who have been eliminated from the Playoffs. In fact, both were just eliminated at the conclusion of the Round of 12.
Yet, that’s where their comparisons end because Kevin Harvick has a far better resume at Texas than Byron does.
In six TMS starts, Byron has zero wins, zero Top 5s, and two Top 10s with a 16.5 average finish and one DNF.
In 36 career starts, Kevin Harvick has three wins, 12 Top 5s, 23 Top 10s, a 10.4 average finish, and one DNF. That means, Harvick has just as many DNFs as Byron does, but has competed in six times the number of races at this track.
Among active drivers, Harvick has the second-most wins, second-most Top 5s, the most Top 10s, and second for average finish.
Even if we just look at Harvick’s last six Texas races to compare to Byron’s six career starts at this track, Kevin is absolutely dominating.
In Harvick’s last six starts, he has two wins, three Top 5s, and five Top 10s. Harvick has won the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 three times. This is an easy wager. Take the #4 car to win this head-to-head battle.
Pick the Group Winner
- William Byron (+240)
- Brad Keselowski (+260)
- Alex Bowman (+290)
- Kurt Busch (+290)
We’ve gone over Byron, Busch, and Bowman in the matchups above, so let’s take a look at Keselowski.
Brad has zero wins, five Top 5s, 10 Top 10s, and a 16.9 average finish in 25 career starts. He’s finished outside of the Top 30 in three of the last six races at Texas which includes two crashes.
In order of average finish we have: Busch (13.9), Byron (16.5), Keselowski (16.9), and Bowman (23.7).
Kurt Busch is the only one of these drivers to have won at Texas. Additionally, he has more Top 10s than the other three combined.
Take Kurt Busch to win this group matchup.
Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Car Prop Bets
Car Number of Race Winner
- Even (+100)
- Odd (-125)
The Even option is the slight underdog here, but there’s some value with this option. Kevin Harvick (3), Kyle Busch (18), and Joey Logano (22) have combined to win eight races at this track. That’s a pretty impressive total.
The Odd option comes in as the slight betting favorite. And, that’s largely due to Larson being the massive favorite to win the race. However, Chase Elliott (9), Denny Hamlin (11), and Martin Truex Jr. (19) are all in the Top 5 favorites to win.
With that said, I think either option is worth betting on. I’m taking the Even as I feel Busch could edge out the field for the win this Sunday.
— NASCAR (@NASCAR) October 11, 2021
Car Number of Race Winner
- Over 11.5 (-125)
- Under 11.5 (+100)
The Over 11.5 comes in as the favorite due to drivers like Ryan Blaney (12), Kyle Busch (18), Martin Truex Jr. (19), and Joey Logano (22).
However, I am going with the Under for this prop bet. Kurt Busch (1), Kevin Harvick (4), Kyle Larson (5), Chase Elliott (9), and Denny Hamlin (11) are all solid options. Combined, they’ve won seven times at Texas.
Although, I’m leaning towards Kyle Busch to win the race, I like this NASCAR prop as an opportunity to hedge my racing winning bet.
Manufacturer of Race Winner
- Chevrolet (+120)
- Toyota (+210)
- Ford (+220)
Chevy has won at Texas 15 times since the first race in 1997. Ford has also won 15 times at Texas. Toyota comes into this weekend’s contest with just eight wins.
Chevy is the favorite due to Larson and others who drive for this manufacturer. However, Toyota and Ford provide better value for this race.
Toyota has all of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers (Busch, Hamlin, Truex, Bell) and has won three of the last six races at Texas Motor Speedway.
Ford has won two of the last six races at this track and features the Team Penske drivers along with Kevin Harvick.
I’m leaning towards Toyota in this one as Hamlin and Busch are real contenders for the checkered flag on Sunday and have the best chance of keeping Chevy’s Kyle Larson from winning.
— Noah Lewis (NASCAR) (@Noah_Lewis1) October 10, 2021
Team of Race Winner
- Hendrick Motor Sports (+150)
- Joe Gibbs Racing (+190)
- Team Penske (+425)
- Stewart-Haas Racing (+900)
- Richard Childress racing (+1500)
- Chip Ganassi Racing (+2000)
- Roush Fenway Racing (+5500)
- JTG Daughtery Racing (+11000)
- 32XI Racing (+13000)
Sunday’s Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 race will most likely come down to Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing.
Team Penske and Stewart-Haas Racing will be players in this race, but I don’t see either team upstaging Hendrick and JGR.
Hendrick has been the best team in 2021, but at Texas, Joe Gibbs Racing has been better.
Of the current drivers for Hendrick, none of them have won at Texas. Yet, of the current JGR drivers, they have won seven total races at this track.
I’m taking Joe Gibbs Racing to win on Sunday either due to Kyle Busch or Denny Hamlin
Other Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500 Prop Bets
Any Playoff (Round of 8) Driver to Win
- Yes (-235)
- No (NA)
Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch are the only non-Playoff drivers with any realistic chance at winning on Sunday. Combined, they’ve won four times at Texas.
With that said, I don’t see either edging out the Playoff field for the checkered flag. I believe the race winner will come from Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, or Denny Hamlin. Right now, I’m leaning towards Busch, but Larson is the massive favorite to win.
— DennyDeliversYT (@DennyDelivers) October 11, 2021
Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin to Both Finish in the Top 5
- Yes (+200)
- No (NA)
I really like this prop bet. The odds are very appealing considering how great the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have been at Texas.
Combined, they have seven wins and 21 Top 5s at Texas Motor Speedway. Furthermore, Busch has the second best average finish at 11.0, and Hamlin’s 13.8 is the 7th best.
I believe both drivers will finish in the Top 5 and challenge for the checkered flag.
Joe Gibbs Racing With More Top 10 Cars Than Hendrick Motorsports
- Yes (-130)
- No (+110)
Each team has four drivers, but there’s a big difference in the level of success for each team at Texas Motor Speedway.
Hendrick’s four drivers have never won at Texas, have combined for just 13 Top 10s, and have the following average finishes:
- Chase Elliott (12.0)
- Kyle Larson (19.8)
- William Byron (16.5)
- Alex Bowman (23.7)
Joe Gibbs Racing’s four drivers have seven Texas victories, 49 Top 10s, and the following average finishes:
- Kyle Busch (11.0)
- Christopher Bell (12.0)
- Martin Truex Jr. (13.6)
- Denny Hamlin (13.8)
As you can see, there’s really no comparison between the two teams when it comes to Texas. I see at least three JGR drivers (Busch, Hamlin, Truex) cracking the Top 10 on Sunday, but only two Hendrick drivers (Larson, Elliott) finishing in the Top 10.