- For the third consecutive week, the best political betting sites have Donald Trump listed as the underdog in the 2020 presidential election.
- Biden has widened his lead over the incumbent, both in the polls and with political oddsmakers.
- As of the week of 6/21, BetOnline, SportsBetting, and 888 Sport are in a three-way tie as the political betting sites offering the most betting value for Donald Trump, who’s now going for +130 to win the general election.
|Political Betting Site||Trump Election Odds|
- Odds current as of 6/21.
- (Some sportsbooks may offer more favorable odds, but have not been vetted for quality by our reviewers)
Best Place to Bet on Donald Trump Winning the 2020 Presidential Election – Week of 6/21
Most Favorable Trump Odds:3-Way Tie: BetOnline / SportsBetting / B888 Sport
Betting Line: +130
Implied Probability: 43.48%
Heading into the week of 6/21, BetOnline, Sportsbetting, and 888 Sport are in a three-way tie offering the most Donald Trump betting value out of all our reviewers’ top-rated political betting sites. The two websites’ oddsmakers have Trump listed as an underdog in the 2020 presidential election at +130.
In what is becoming a trend, Donald Trump has lost ground to his Democratic opponent for the third consecutive week.
Trump’s implied probability of winning – and remember, this is for his best betting odds – now sits at 43.48%. Still, a +130 underdog has an excellent chance of victory; if this were sports, it would hardly register as an upset. However, the President was favored for so much of this election cycle, that he’s continuing to see Biden’s odds lengthen feels significant.
That said, the race looks much closer at political betting sites than it does in the polls. The latest Harvard-Harris and Fox News surveys each have Biden leading by 12 points. He’s also up 16 in Minnesota and ahead in every single swing state other than the most recent North Carolina poll (where Trump is ahead by 3 points).
But it’s still early, and I see signs that the Democrats may be peaking too early. The election has become a referendum on Donald Trump, with Biden hanging back and barely visible.
Can they keep this going for another four-plus months?
Noteworthy Headlines from the Past Week
The President had another rough week.
His plan to restart campaign rallies fell flat when hordes of K-pop fans reserved most of the tickets with no intention of attending, his former national security advisor is publishing a provocative book, the Supreme Court ruled against conservatives twice – thanks to one of Trump’s appointments – and he’s continued to take heat for the COVID pandemic and economic recession.
Trump Rally Trolled by TikTok / K-Pop Fans
The return of Donald Trump to the campaign trail – and, more specifically, to his massive stadium rallies – was supposed to reignite excitement behind the incumbent, similar to 2016. That is not what happened. Instead, Trump was trolled by an army of online Zoomers and K-pop fans who may have dealt the President his most devastating blow of the election cycle thus far.
Leading up to the event, Trump’s campaign manager Brad Parscale repeatedly announced impressive attendance numbers. Not only was the 19,000-seat BOK Center meant to be sold out, but the President was preparing a second speech outside for the overflow crowd of 40,000 or so too. The campaign boasted over one million people requested tickets for the rally.
According to the Tulsa Fire Department, the total number of Trump supporters in the crowd ended up being about 6,200 people.
That was primarily due to stories like this one:
For Diana Mejia, the idea to troll President Donald Trump with false ticket reservations to Saturday’s rally in Tulsa, Oklahoma, came from TikTok.
On June 12, Mejia, 19, saw a video from TikTok user Mary Jo Laupp, noting people could reserve tickets they had no intention of using in an attempt to humiliate the President with an empty arena. The video has been viewed more than 2 million times as of Sunday, according to TikTok’s metrics.
“I saw it was super popular on TikTok, and I was like, ‘We should definitely bring this to Twitter because I haven’t seen this on Twitter,’” Mejia said.
Twenty minutes after seeing the video, Mejia tweeted that she had reserved her own set of tickets: “oh no! I just reserved my tickets for 45’s rally on JUNETEENTH in TULSA and completely forgot that I have to mop my windows that day! now my seats will be EMPTY!”
That’s right, an army of teenagers trolled the President into only filling a third of what was expected to be a sold-out arena, as well as canceling the overflow event!
“Leftists always fool themselves into thinking they’re being clever. Registering for a rally only means you’ve RSVPed with a cellphone number,” Trump campaign spokesman Tim Murtaugh responded, “but we thank them for their contact information.”
Alexandria Occasion-Cortez responded to the Trump campaign’s retorts with a tweet of her own:
The Biden team has denied playing any role in the ticket registration trolling effort.
Is Shaun King Working for the Trump Campaign?
With “allies” like Shaun King, who needs enemies? If anybody hands Donald Trump a second term on a silver platter, it’ll be this guy.
As if the protests, “autonomous zones,” and statue demolitions weren’t radicalizing conservatives enough, the Evangelical mega-church pastor-turned-journalist-turned-activist is now advocating for the destruction of Jesus statues and stained-glass windows. He says, “They should all come down,” due to the white-skinned Anglo-Saxon appearance, Jesus adorns in much of his artwork.
All murals and stained glass windows of white Jesus, and his European mother, and their white friends should also come down.
They are a gross form white supremacy.
Created as tools of oppression.
They should all come down.
— Shaun King (@shaunking) June 22, 2020
It might be the dumbest idea anyone on the left has shared since Trump got into office – which is saying a lot! Joe Biden is relying on suburban and older voters to push him past the finish line in November. So far, they’ve gone all-in for Joe, mostly as a rejection of how Trump has dealt with the pandemic and nationwide protests.
But if they start tearing down statues of Jesus and breaking stained-glass windows, you will see the pendulum swing back the other direction so fast your head will spin. If you want to see armed conflicts involving right-wing radicals, that’s a quick way to make them happen. It’s bad enough that they’ve begun tearing down (or advocating to tear down) memorials to George Washington and Abe Lincoln – but going after religious idols is public relations suicide.
Nothing could turn Trump’s fortunes around faster than a video of Antifa or BLM protesters destroying a church. I’m willing to bet any amount that the day such footage goes viral; Trump will become the favorite again.
I dare you to try and rip him down!
He already looks like he’s about to Hulk out, flex those beams in half, and smash some Roman skulls with them. Look at those aesthetics! Shaun King doesn’t want those problems; the Son of God never skips leg day.
This business about destroying religious artwork is such a horrible idea; I’m half-way convinced King is working for the Trump campaign. Maybe he’s an intelligence asset. I can’t imagine anyone could be this stupid.
Biden is up double-digits; all he has to do is run out the clock – try to keep a low profile and not make waves. Starting a holy war is not part of a winning game plan. Shaun King is going to get people killed and reelect Trump in one fell swoop if he’s not careful.
Supreme Court Rulings Take Uncomfortable Discussions Off the Table for Republicans
Republicans also took two huge “L’s” from the Supreme Court last week. The justices made decisions regarding LGBTQ discrimination in the workplace and the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program. In both cases, the conservative-majority court sided with liberals, ruling against the preferences of the White House.
The effects of the former will reverberate in companies across the country for years. The court’s 6-3 ruling extends Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act to make it illegal to discriminate against LGBTQ workers.
Now, an employer may not discriminate against any individual due to their sex and that “the straightforward application of Title VII’s terms” means that “sex” includes one’s homosexuality or transgender status.
The Supreme Court’s opinion grew out of three separate cases involving different employees and companies, in which the employers allegedly fired the employees for being homosexual or transgender:
- “Clayton County, Georgia, fired Gerald Bostock for conduct ‘unbecoming’ a county employee shortly after he began participating in a gay recreational softball league.“
- “Altitude Express fired Donald Zarda days after he mentioned being gay.”
- “R. G. & G. R. Harris Funeral Homes fired Aimee Ste-phens, who presented as a male when she was hired, after she informed her employer that she planned to ‘live and work full-time as a woman.’”
Each worker sued their employer for sex discrimination under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. The different federal courts of appeal disagreed on the issue of whether Title VII protects LGBTQ employees and so the cases made their way to the Supreme Court for an ultimate decision.
Justice Gorsuch, a Trump appointee, wrote the following about the court’s ruling:
“Today, we must decide whether an employer can fire someone simply for being homosexual or transgender. The answer is clear. An employer who fires an individual for being homosexual or transgender fires that person for traits or actions it would not have questioned in members of a different sex. Sex plays a necessary and undisguisable role in the decision, exactly what Title VII forbids.”
Trump also lost a challenge to his termination of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. DACA permits Dreamers to remain in the country to go to school and work on renewable permits. The Supreme Court found that in his haste to end the program, the President had violated the Administrative Procedure Act.
This time, it was a 5-4 ruling, with Chief Justice Roberts siding with the four liberal judges in the majority.
“These horrible & politically charged decisions coming out of the Supreme Court are shotgun blasts into the face of people that are proud to call themselves Republicans or Conservatives. We need more Justices, or we will lose our 2nd. Amendment & everything else. Vote Trump 2020!” Donald Trump tweeted after the DACA decision on Thursday.
“Do you get the impression that the Supreme Court doesn’t like me?” he added after the court ruled that the White House hadn’t acted properly in ending the 8-year-old program that currently protects roughly 650,000 immigrants from deportation.
Blessings in Disguise?
While these Supreme Court losses may look bad now, they may work out in Trump’s favor between now and the election. The rulings close the book on hot-button two issues Republicans may not want to publicly debate with so many seats up for grabs this November – including the Oval Office.
The President is already far behind in the polls – the last thing he needs is to be debating trans rights and immigration. Especially when Biden is struggling so mightily to attract Hispanic voters, who overwhelmingly supported Bernie Sanders in the primaries.
Trump is better off taking this loss now in an attempt to win over some of those disenfranchised Democrats.
John Bolton’s Book Won’t Matter
As if the President didn’t have enough on his plate – then, there was the John Bolton book. As the White House fights to prevent The Room Where It Happened from being released, excerpts were published in several prominent media outlets.
I wrote about Bolton’s memoir last week and how his allegations don’t amount to much. All former national security advisor has done with its release is make himself the most hated man amongst members of both parties.
At first, the media made a big deal out of some of Bolton’s allegations, but the stories have quickly fizzled out. The war hawk gives very few concrete details and nothing especially newsworthy. It’s just a desperate cash grab by a disgruntled former employee.
By the time we are voting in the general election, John Bolton and his book will be long forgotten. Trump has an uphill battle against Joe Biden and several massive problems on his plate to worry about, but The Room Where It Happened will not be one of them.