- Donald Trump’s odds of winning the 2020 presidential election have lengthened for the fourth consecutive week, as polling data continues to show the incumbent trailing by double-digits nationally.
- In addition to his ailing national numbers, he president is behind in several crucial swing states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida. GOP officials are reportedly starting to panic, with one rumor even suggesting that Trump may drop out of the race if trends don’t improve.
- The week of June 28 opens with Donald Trump’s odds of winnning November’s general election hovering between roughly +125 and +135 moneyline at most of our top-rated political betting sites. For the Trump backers looking for the most value available (from a reputable online sportsbook), 888 Sport is your best bet – they’re offering President Trump at +150!
|Political Betting Site||Trump Election Odds|
- Odds current as of 6/28.
- (Some sportsbooks may offer more favorable odds, but have not been vetted for quality by our reviewers)
Best Place to Bet on Donald Trump Winning the 2020 Presidential Election – Week of 6/28
Most Favorable Trump Odds: 888 Sport
Betting Line: +150
Implied Probability: 40%
Heading into the week of 6/28, 888 Sport is offering the most Donald Trump betting value of all our reviewers’ most trusted political betting sites. The two websites’ oddsmakers have Trump listed as an underdog in the 2020 presidential election at +150.
First, Donald Trump seemed poised to slide right into a second term in office, almost by accident. The Democrats in Congress and on the news spent three straight years frantically manufacturing controversy after controversy – often about Russia – without ever getting any of the accusations to stick, and fresh off an impeachment trial acquittal, the President’s reelection was inevitable.
In all of my research, I never anticipated the possibility of a nation-crippling pandemic nor the subsequent economic destruction such an event might leave in its wake. Especially in a country that uses such crises as an excuse to execute the most massive transfer of wealth in modern history to the top 0.1% — who need it least.
Just like that, the booming GDP Trump so proudly planned to build his campaign around disintegrated. And the country’s ill-preparedness and inability to deal with such crises exposed how divorced from reality our glowing economic figures were in the first place.
The President already had his hands full by time video of George Floyd’s murder hit the web. The disturbing footage was the spark needed to mobilize Americans, restless after months of sitting at home in lockdown, watching the world fall apart on our little screens.
Donald Trump’s approval ratings couldn’t sustain yet another national emergency – and his reaction to the protests didn’t help. Since Floyd’s death, poll numbers and betting odds have consistently shown the incumbent falling further behind the favored Joe Biden.
This week, Trump’s +150 betting line has an implied probability of 40%.The contest is no longer a “coin toss” as previously reported.
If Donald is still the President in 2021, the story of November’s election will be that of an underdog’s improbable comeback.
Noteworthy Headlines from the Past Week
The liberal establishment can smell blood in the water and are turning up the heat on President Trump, even beyond what one would expect amid a handful of national emergencies and impending economic depression. Fearful of making the same mistakes as 2016, cable news networks, prominent papers, and social media platforms are kicking the propaganda/pressure campaign into high gear.
Spend the day consuming the 24/7 news cycle, and you’ll be sure the world is ending any minute now. Never mind that we live in the most peaceful time in human history, just with far more access to news and information from around the planet – we are meant to be on high alert!
So, in addition to his awful polling data and widespread criticisms for mismanaging the pandemic, Donald Trump has new fires to put out this week.
The NY Times is ginning up the Russian narratives again after publishing a story of alleged bounties on US officials’ heads. At the same time, the President’s reckless tweeting got him in trouble again.
So, I’m not willing to blame Donald Trump’s declining odds on external factors. He’s not running a 2016-style campaign – he’s not the same candidate. I’ll get more into that later.
Can’t Throw the Heater Every Time
I get the impression that Donald Trump doesn’t know why he won in 2016.
The President seems to believe there’s something uniquely magnetic and impressive about his very being and that whatever it is, it will allow him to whip up all the support necessary when the time comes.
He thinks – as one would expect from a relentless self-promoter and narcissist – that the people were drawn to his willingness to sidestep political correctness and launch brutal attacks — and hilarious nicknames—at his political rivals.
The incumbent candidate is exposing himself as a one-trick pony.
After an Obama administration that was beyond disappointing for many Independents and left-leaning Democrats, the American electorate was done with career politicians and DC insiders. When Hillary Clinton and the DNC blatantly rigged the primary against Bernie Sanders, voter disenfranchisement was soaring.
Of course, the public was enthralled with this renegade candidate hurling insults, breaking all the rules, and offending the political old-guard!
It was hilarious watching the over-coached, empty suits frozen and panicked, trying to comprehend what was happening and why the crowd cheered on his affronts to political correctness and decency.
The more bombastic and outrageous Trump acted, the more popular he became. The possibility that he’d bring his disruptive, anti-establishment approach to the White House (or at least piss off a lot of Washington DC insiders) was a chance worth taking for many voters. Especially when the other option was the very face of US political corruption and neoliberalism: Hillary Clinton.
But he’s trying to repeat those same tactics again – and it’s not the right climate for it. After three years of media BS about Russia – which, in fairness, isn’t his fault – a pandemic, Great Depression level economic collapse hanging over everyone’s head, and racial strife boiling over, people don’t want any more finger-pointing or insults.
Right now, they want cooperation and some sense that the country will get through this and recover. I understand that’s not Trump’s personality and that it’s difficult to play nice when the media is biased and dishonest, but it’s his only hope of winning.
Adapt to New Conditions
“I think right now obviously Trump has a problem with the middle of the electorate, with independents, and they’re the people who are going to decide a national election,” Senate Majority Whip John Thune said on Wednesday.
“I think he can win those back, but it will probably require not only a message that deals with substance and policy, but I think a message that conveys a perhaps different tone,” he added.
For Donald Trump to recover at this point, he’ll have to be ready to piss off some of his new Republican buddies, like Mitch McConnell.
In the middle of a pandemic, the President has extraordinary powers to enact change. The move can’t be to continually funnel trillions to Wall St and Big Business while promising the tens-of-millions of recently unemployed Americans that the stock market is coming back. Most Trump supporters – hell, most people – don’t own stocks anymore.
They need jobs, the belief that their government won’t abandon them (after being directly responsible for their layoffs and inability to pay rent and such), and a plan for recovery.
The free-market fundamentalist goofballs with whom Trump surrounds himself won’t advocate for any of this; they are fine using their relationship with the White House to protect their investments and loot the country before leaving the President hanging out to dry when the bill comes due.
Donald better realize he’s being played by GOP leadership, get back to his roots, and change his tune soon, or this election is already over.
Along those same lines, the Trump campaign really misses Steve Bannon and company. However you feel about Bannon and Roger Stone’s politics, they knew how to read the situation and strategically craft Donald Trump’s image and message to appeal to the right voter blocs in the most needed locations.
Calling out the rotten core of Washington DC for signing one-sided trade deals to enrich donors, friends, and themselves at the cost of US manufacturing swung the Rust Belt red.
Promising to slow the influx of undocumented immigrants into the country, who undercut domestic workers’ salaries – a long-held liberal position before very recently – struck a chord with low-income voters and democratic socialists intent on protecting American labor.
Democratic pundits wonder why roughly a quarter of Bernie Sanders supporters either voted third-party or for Trump in the general; well, outside of affluent urban liberal circles, academia, and the professional-managerial class, most people don’t want open borders. They want jobs and wages that provide for a full life and a family.
Anyway, President Trump has completely lost the issues and forgotten who brought him to the dance, and I think that has everything to do with the absence of Steve Bannon and the rest of the 2016 team.
“White Power” Retweet Controversy
One of this week’s big controversies centers around a video the President retweeted on Sunday. The footage was captured in The Villages, a retirement community in Florida. It features a chain of Trump-loving retirees driving golf carts decorated with campaign materials while protesting pensioners yell things and call them nazis.
A Trump supporter yells “white power” at one point, which I missed on my first viewing. The retweeted video is now being used as proof that the President is racist and supports white nationalist movements.
Again, I understand not liking Donald Trump – and I really relate to not wanting him to be President – but the manufactured phony outrage is so disingenuous. Watch this video and imagine playing it without searching specifically for the offensive quote.
Y'all these amazing ass Democratic Seniors are from The Villages in Florida and they are dragging the MAGAs that live there. ??pic.twitter.com/Ek8MJSUL8g
— ?????????? (@JewelsJourneys) June 28, 2020
Initially, I was more overwhelmed by the aggression of the foul-mouthed old liberal ladies and the general commotion of the scene; it took me multiple viewings to even find the “white power” part. It’s about 10 seconds into the action and is repeated by a protester (and stands out more than I initially thought upon re-watching. The first time it took me several moments to adjust to whatever the hell was going on).
Whatever the case, if our political situation wasn’t such a partisan mess right now, the logical explanation is that the President either didn’t watch with sound or didn’t listen carefully (like me) the first time through. He thought the retweet would highlight the hateful venom spewing from the Democrats protesting if anything.
Though, in fairness, that’s why the President of the United States shouldn’t tweet so carelessly, so often. If a staffer put a second set of eyes on all of Trump’s tweets and retweets before he hit “send,” it would save the administration many negative news cycles.
Still, reframing this story as if racist, white nationalist Trump supporters were the focal point of the video and that Donald retweeted it out of solidarity with the “white power” message is so dishonest. Even if he is a frothing-at-the-mouth racist, nobody would purposely tweet it out to the masses as if that’s a normal or acceptable opinion.
Trump is a maniac and can be wildly inappropriate at times. Still, I’m positive he wouldn’t retweet videos with the intent to make sure everyone hears a racist phrase that even the most dedicated bigots don’t openly announce in public or online – in the middle of a reelection campaign, no less.
Come on; be realistic.
There are so many legitimate reasons to be critical of — and to oppose — the Trump administration. Amplifying obvious accidents like this as premeditated, intentional hatemongering is the kind of thing that eroded the media’s credibility in the first place.
The hysterics aren’t necessary; the President makes plenty of egregious diplomatic and policy mistakes worth covering and debating.
Russia, Russia, Russia…with Bounties this Time
It wouldn’t be a week in US politics without another NY Times article citing anonymous intelligence sources promising that Russia is our mortal enemy while implying the US President is secretly on their side.
The trusted “paper of record,” that promised us “weapons of mass destruction” in Iraq and has supported every foreign military intervention up for discussion since WW2 couldn’t possibly have an agenda and would never lead us astray, so I suggest accepting all of this as fact.
Forget about how “Russiagate” became “Obamagate” — highlighting terrifying abuses of power that nobody talks about because Trump was the victim of the unethical spying – and the absolute flub that was the Mueller Report; this time they’re being serious.
According to US intelligent officials, the Russian military was paying bounties to Taliban militants for killing coalition forces occupying Afghanistan, including American troops. Besides the explosive headline, the story is sparse on details.
The United States concluded months ago that the Russian unit, which has been linked to assassination attempts and other covert operations in Europe intended to destabilize the West or take revenge on turncoats, had covertly offered rewards for successful attacks last year.
Islamist militants, or armed criminal elements closely associated with them, are believed to have collected some bounty money, the officials said. Twenty Americans were killed in combat in Afghanistan in 2019, but it was not clear which killings were under suspicion.
Per usual, the article’s primary gripe concerns President Trump’s refusal to confront Russia and escalate tensions, starting with demands and sanctions. The intelligence communities’ insistence that we get tough with the Kremlin and force a more adversarial relationship has been a reoccurring theme since 2016.
Anonymous officials go on to say the White House failed to act on the incentivized killings of American and NATO troops, rejecting Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s suggestion to implement more hawkish policies towards Russia.
The entire piece is more of the usual accusations backed up with zero details – just “nameless officials say such-and-such happened; we cannot confirm how, why, or even if their claims are true,” followed by 1,000 words detailing every previous allegation and every time Donald Trump ever shook hands with a Russian person.
The intelligence assessment is said to be based at least in part on interrogations of captured Afghan militants and criminals. The officials did not describe the mechanics of the Russian operation, such as how targets were picked or how money changed hands. It is also not clear whether Russian operatives had deployed inside Afghanistan or met with their Taliban counterparts elsewhere.
So, that to me, sounds like they tortured a guy who eventually said Moscow was paying the Taliban to attack US soldiers, but we don’t know anything more or even if anyone actually got paid.
The war hawks who have controlled the Washington DC establishment for generations are ready to expand the US’s military engagement around the world. The economy is collapsing and they’re in desperate need of a new war or two before poor people start asking questions about the nation’s leadership.
Trump is a godsend in that regard. The people of the United States have been stripped of their critical thinking skills by nonstop hysteria and propoganda. Now, the masses form their opinions on one thing, and one thing only: How does Trump feel about it?
Thus, to convince Americans to support toppling more regimes or maybe risking a nuclear exchange with a rival superpower, all one must do is present the hawkish idea as being in opposition to Donald Trump.
If he says it’s bad, it must be good, right?