- Joe Biden enters the week of 6/28 having further solidified his status as the odds-on favorite to become the next President of the United States of America.
- Democratic candidates are polling exceedingly well across the board, showing a high likelihood of a sweep – particularly for Biden, who’s widening his lead in several key battleground states.
- To start the week of 6/28, Bovada is offering the best price – and most value – of all our reviewers’ top-rated political betting sites on Joe Biden. Bovada lists Biden’s odds of winning the 2020 presidential election at –150.
|Political Betting Site||Joe Biden Election Odds|
- Odds current as of 6/28.
- (Some sportsbooks may offer more favorable odds, but have not been vetted for quality by our reviewers)
Best Place to Bet on Joe Biden Winning the 2020 Presidential Election -Week of 6/28
Most Favorable Biden Odds: Bovada
Betting Line: -150
Implied Probability: 60%
For the week of 6/28, it’s Bovada offering prospective Joe Biden backers the most betting value as they’ve shortened the Democrats odds to make him a –150 favorite. This is a sizable jump from last week, when the former VP’s (most favorable) implied probability was 52.38%.
Today, 60% is the most conservative implied probability you can find, though most political betting sites have Joe Biden’s odds set between –160 (61.54% IP) and –167 (62.55% IP).
While BetOnline and Sportsbetting.ag were well ahead of the curve with regards to Joe Biden’s betting odds, it would appear that the rest of our favorite political betting sites are catching up with their assessment. The former VP’s lines shortened across the board; MyBookie and Xbet even stopped offering the Democrat at –110 finally!
Last week, national surveys showed Biden leading the incumbent by approximately ten percentage points – consistent with the polling data we’ve seen since George Floyd’s murder and subsequent protests. That unrest and Trump’s response appears to have been the last straw for a large percentage of Independents and swing voters because the President’s numbers have never recovered.
Of course, one can’t help but wonder if Joe Biden’s big boost in the polls isn’t a bit premature. Will he be able to sustain such high expectations of winning for another four months? What kind of event would need to take place to threaten the Democratic nominee’s comfortable lead?
The DNC is preemptively reducing their candidate’s exposure to both the coronavirus and the public, moving to a scaled-back, mostly virtual national convention. At the same time, some liberal pundits have begun calling for changes – if not an outright cancellation – to the presidential debates. This may give us some idea of what to expect going forward.
Noteworthy Headlines from the Past Week
This week’s Joe Biden headlines were mostly the same as the weeks prior. While Donald Trump is desperately trying to tend to one national “fire” after another, the Democrats are enjoying hanging back and seeing their lead build without requiring much effort.
With each passing week, it becomes more apparent just how little Biden has to do with this election outcome. Polls have shown once again that the number of Democrats casting a ballot against Trump rather than for Biden is overwhelming.
Not that those details matter on Election Day; you get to occupy the same White House either way! At the moment, Biden’s plan to coast into the Oval Office, expending as few calories possible, is working.
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Joe Biden Has Historically Large Lead in the Polls
It wasn’t that long ago that Donald Trump was poised to cruise to an easy reelection.
The impeachment trial turned out to be a farce, “Russiagate” went nowhere (and makes the Democrats look more like the real offenders with each new disclosure), the US’s high GDP gave Americans the impression of a strong economy, and the Democratic Party was splitting in two – left-leaning progressives versus establishment centrists.
Four months before the general election, the former Vice President’s 9.6-point lead in the polls is a more significant margin than Hillary Clinton ever had over Trump, even at her peak! Even during his historic 2008 run, Barack Obama never held a national lead over McCain of more than 8 points.
Perhaps even more importantly, the Democrat has cracked the 50-percent mark, with a RealClearPolitics polling average of 50.9% versus Trump’s 41.3%. Only two other presidential candidates have surpassed 50% his early in an election cycle – Richard Nixon (1972) and Ronald Reagan (1984) — and they both won in landslides.
That number suggests far fewer voters are heading into this year’s presidential election undecided. It’s also consistent with poll data suggesting Trump has lost a substantial amount of Independent supporters.
Biden is also winning where it counts. As lovely as a national lead may be, core battleground states are better. The six most crucial swing states this election are Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona.
The RCP poll averages show the Democratic candidate ahead by six or more points in all but two: Arizona and North Carolina. Biden is leading by +2.4 in North Carolina and +4.0 in Arizona. Trump won all six of these states in 2016 and is now getting smashed in four of them!
Biden’s Balancing Act – Centrists vs. The Left
America is due for a major political overhaul, starting with a party realignment. One appears to be underway whether the electorate has noticed, cares to notice, or not. It’s becoming apparent that in 2020, the initial stages of this evolution will benefit Joe Biden — and the DNC as a whole — over Donald Trump.
Moderate, Bush-era, “Never Trump” neocons have flooded the Democratic Party, contributing to the growing economic divide between average voters on either side. Centrist Democrats and moderate conservatives share a lot in common.
They’re largely college-educated, middle or upper-middle-class voters in suburbs and metropolitan areas who really want Donald Trump to stop offending their sensibilities but don’t want to upset the status quo in the process. And they hate paying for social programs. Sure, they disagree on some hot-button social issues, but as long as the money is right, they’ll deal.
The less financially fortunate are primarily split into two groups: the populist right and the populist left. You could also think of them as the outsiders – opposite the establishment – on both ends of the political spectrum.
With help from Independents, the populist left has been increasingly making lots of noise in the Democratic Party — ever since Obama disappointed everyone and left office. They nearly succeeded in taking over the party in 2016, before forcing the establishment to rig the primaries.
They’re having some success unseating Democratic incumbents in congress but have twice seen Bernie Sanders fail to break through at the highest level. Still, left-leaning progressives amount to a formidable voting bloc for which the DNC must strategize. Sanders-to-Trump (or a third-party candidate) voters killed Clinton’s presidential aspirations in 2016.
The Biden campaign wants to keep as many of Bernie Sanders’s supporters under the blue tent as possible this time around. At the same time, it was far-more-conservative centrist Democrats and their newfound Republican allies that propelled Joe past the democratic socialist’s grassroots movement in the primaries.
How do Democrats balance their messaging to attract as many voters possible from both groups?
The new formerly-GOP wing of the party showed out in force to prevent Bernie Sanders from earning the nomination; so, anything too progressive and you risk them staying home or voting red.
New Economist Poll:
Voting FOR Biden: 35%
Voting AGAINST Trump: 62%
Voting FOR Trump: 81%
Voting AGAINST Biden: 18%
— Ryan Knight ? (@ProudSocialist) June 28, 2020
On the other side of the equation, Bernie supporters were promised compromises in return for “voting blue no matter who” — holding their nose and voting for Biden. They want to see real tangible progress towards specific progressive policies – something more than the usual promises and letdowns.
Democratic strategists have to convince the maximum number of voters possible not to cast a third-party ballot, stay home on Election Day, or worst-of-all, vote Republican. They’re relying on both ends of the spectrum to prioritize their hatred of Trump over political ideologies.
The plan appears to be to make all substantial policy decisions and appointments on behalf of the moderate-centrists while appeasing the left with a combination of small concessions and performative gestures.
They’re never getting Medicare for All but might see a $15 minimum wage and a promise to “take a look at” into climate concerns or income inequality.
Kamala Harris, Susan Rice Favorites for Biden VP Nomination
This game of tug-o-war between leftists and liberals will play a critical role in deciding Joe Biden’s running mate. Kamala Harris is still the favorite to receive the Vice-Presidential nomination. She’s facing stiff competition from Susan Rice, who worked in the Obama administration alongside Biden, as the President’s National Security Advisor.
If nominated/elected, both front-runners will adhere to centrist neoliberal politics. Still, as women of color, they should salvage a fair number of leftists who will process the nod to identity politics as progress, even in place of substantial reforms.
If losing progressives becomes a chief concern, Elizabeth Warren is Biden’s best bet at VP. While her campaign warred with them during the primaries, most Bernie Sanders supporters will be willing to compromise in November. With Biden’s health, the Massachusettes Senator presents a rare opportunity to get an economic liberal in the Oval Office.
Biden’s substantial lead in the polls will probably convince the campaign to stay the course and pick Harris or Rice. The influx of former Republicans overwhelmed Sanders’s democratic socialists in the primaries, so why upset the apple cart now?
Attacking Trump from the Right on Foreign Policy
One mildly terrifying aspect of Joe Biden’s recent campaign rhetoric is that he looks to be running to Trump’s right on foreign policy. In 2016, one of the now-President’s leading platforms was ending the never-ending overseas interventions. He promised to bring home the troops and focus more on domestic issues over expensive, losing wars.
The desire to get along with foreign powers like Russia already got Trump labeled a “Putin Puppet,” sparking conspiracy theories that have dominated the mainstream media for the entirety of his first term. John Bolton’s primary point of contention as a member formerly of the administration was the President’s refusal to be more militarily aggressive.
The NY Times has already started planting the seeds for war, reporting questionable stories about Russia arming America’s enemies in Afghanistan and Syria, and placing bounties on US targets’ heads. They’re calling for the White House to be more forceful with its foreign policy by challenging Putin in the Middle East and Ukraine – written by the same “journalists” who brought you “WMDs in Iraq!”
“Not only has he failed to sanction or impose any kind of consequences on Russia for this egregious violation of international law, Donald Trump has continued his embarrassing campaign of deference and debasing himself before Vladimir Putin,” said Biden.
The Democrat wants to ratchet up tensions with the Russian government while the Republican incumbent has repeatedly chosen de-escalation over retaliation on the world stage. That appears to be coming to an end soon if the polls are accurate.
Biden Campaign Fundraiser with Obama Raises $7.6 Million
Former President Barack Obama participated in a fundraising event with his old Vice President last Tuesday, where he encouraged Democrats to keep their foot on the gas. Obama fears Biden’s widely reported lead in the polls will cause complacency in voters taking the election for granted.
The virtual event was the previous President’s first return to the campaign trail since winning reelection in 2012. Biden and Obama’s online fundraiser raised roughly $7.6 million from more than 175,000 individual donors.
The former President plans to play a prominent role this Fall, campaigning on behalf of Joe Biden and down-ballot Democrats running for Congressional seats. Barack Obama is still beloved by a massive swathe of the Democratic electorate and will be a powerful and influential voice leading up to Election Day.
His quick wit and oratory skills will be especially vital for a Biden campaign desperate to minimize exposure to their candidate, who – besides being older and in the highest COVID-19 risk group – is prone to making controversial statements and embarrassing blunders (not to mention the legitimate concerns over Joe’s cognitive health and the many uncomfortable moments created by his brain farts).
Watch for an Attempt to Cancel Debates (or Do Them Remotely)
On that same note: Don’t be surprised if the DNC or Biden campaign tries to cancel the three planned presidential debates. They’ve already rejected Trump’s proposal to add a fourth.
The Washington Post last week published an opinion piece titled, “ It’s time to rethink the presidential debates.” Under the guise of public health during a pandemic, the author suggests removing live audiences or canceling all the events entirely.
The campaign wants to keep him away from live crowds and live broadcasts. And they definitely don’t want their candidate frozen on stage for the world to see, taking a barrage of insults and nicknames from Trump.
Soon, the DNC will make an issue in the public of scrapping the debates altogether this election. They’ll point to coronavirus infections and the need to focus on more pressing matters like racial unrest, the pandemic, and the economic recession “in times like these.”
They’ll eventually compromise with the Trump campaign, agreeing to hold 2-3 virtual debates online. Under those conditions, Biden can participate without the added stress of standing under the lights on stage before a full audience and at-home viewers. He’ll be more comfortable physically, and his team will be able to field their candidate the answers.
The lack of audience also takes the zing off of President Trump’s insults. They don’t land as well without the immediate crowd reaction. There’s a reason sitcoms use laugh-tracks; think about it.