The Best NFL Over/Under Wagers for Week 6

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans - Over-Under Bets

  • Can the Rams scored enough to cover the number vs. the battered Giants?
  • With Herbert and Jackson, fireworks expected between the Chargers and Ravens
  • Dolphins-Jaguars not a scintillating OVER in London
  • Chiefs should outgun Washington despite ravaged defense
  • Monday Night offers plenty of scoring potential when the Bills visit the Titans

If you need any help finding value on the NFL games for Week 6, check our free NFL picks here.

Los Angeles Rams (4-1) at New York Giants (1-4)

  • Time: 10:00AM PST – 12:00PM CST – 1:00PM EST
  • Place: MetLife Stadium, New York, NY
  • TV: FOX

The Series:

The Rams lead the all-time series, 27-16, over the New York Giants as Los Angeles took a 17-9 win last season at Sofi Stadium. However, the Giants have won seven of the last nine games between the two NFC combatants as they took a 17-10 win at Twickenham Stadium in London in 2016.

Last Week:

The Rams have had a week and a half off after defeating Seattle, 26-17, at Lumen Field in Seattle. Matt Stafford continued his MVP-esque season as he threw for 365 yards and a touchdown. Los Angeles trailed 7-3 at halftime but took control of the game in the third quarter when Darrell Henderson scored on a 5-yard run and Stafford found tight end Tyler Higbee on a 13-yard scoring toss.

Both Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley were knocked out of the Giants’ 44-20 loss in Dallas. Jones was sidelined with a concussion while Barkley came up with an ankle injury. Devontae Booker had a pair of scores – one on the ground and one through the air – to pace the Giants, who trailed throughout the game.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Los Angeles Rams -10 (-110) -450 O 48.5 (-110)
New York Giants +10 (-110) +340 U 48.5 (-110)

When the Rams Have the Ball:

Los Angeles Rams LogoStafford continues to orchestrate the second-best pass offense in the NFL as they gather 310 yards through the air. Cooper Kupp has 56 carries for 523 yards with five TDs and eight plays over 20 yards. He averages 108 yards in his past six games on the road.

Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee are hot in the passing game as well as Woods had 12 catches for 150 yards last week as he has 10-plus catches in three of his last five road games. The Giants give up 270 yards passing (21st/NFL). Giants safety Logan Ryan had eight tackles last week and is looking for his sixth game in a row with seven or more tackles.

When the Giants have the Ball:

New York Giants LogoThe Giants’ offense will have little direction without Jones and Barkley although Giants coach Joe Judge said Jones was ahead of schedule and could be ready to play by Sunday. Jones is being disrupted by his offensive line as he has been sacked eight times already. He is also New York’s leading rusher and with him and Barkley potentially out, the Giants would have to turn to Devontae Booker, who has 64 yards on 23 carries.

The Rams have give up 388 yards per game (18th/NFL), so they look to ramp up the ‘D’ and they look to try to get their defense back in sync behind Aaron Donald and Leonard Floyd up front.

Why Bet the UNDER 48.5:

The Los Angeles offense is operating full-throttle, so they are probably going to jet out to a big lead, be able to put it in neutral, and pick up the win – especially if Jones, Barkey, or both are out of the game. It’s also a classic example of a west coast team going each which sometimes plays havoc with outputs across the boards. Easy win for the Rams, but they won’t need the full 48.5.

Los Angeles Chargers (4-1) at Baltimore Ravens (4-1)

  • Time: 10:00AM PST – 12:00PM CST – 1:00PM EST
  • Place: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

Baltimore leads this series, 7-5, and the Ravens have won three of their last four in the series. The Chargers knocked off the Ravens, 23-17, in the 2018 AFC wild-card game when the Bolts tied a franchise record with seven sacks in a single game. Ravens coach John Harbaugh is 4-3 vs. the Chargers and the Ravens are 17-4 at home against teams from the west coast.

A win on Sunday would give the Ravens their third win of the season against the AFC West as they have already beaten Kansas City, 36-35 in Baltimore, and then they took a 23-7 win at Denver.

Last Week:

Baltimore came from 19 points down to defeat the Indianapolis Colts, 31-25, in overtime. Lamar Jackson led a furious comeback as he finished with 37 completions out of 43 attempts for 442 yards and four TDs as Mark Andrews caught two and Hollywood Brown also had two. Calais Campbell blocked a field goal as well in the fourth quarter.

Justin Herbert passed for 398 yards and Austin Eckler scored three touchdowns as the Chargers defeated the Browns, 47-42. All three of hecklers’ TD runs came in the fourth quarter after Mike Williams also had eight catches for 165 yards and two touchdowns as his touchdown catches came from 72 and 42 yards out.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 (-105) +130 O 52 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens -2.5 (-115) -150 U 52 (-110)

When the Chargers Have the Ball:

Los Angeles Chargers LogoThe Ravens have had a tough time stopping the pass as they give up 296 yards per game (29th/NFL). With Justin Herbert, who orchestrates the NFL’s No. 3 pass offense on the horizon, the Ravens have to put something together to be able to ramp up the pass rush as Baltimore has 12 sacks on the season, three from Odafe Oweh.

Mike Williams and Keenan Allen could have a field day in that Ravens secondary as Williams has 120-plus yards and two TD catches in two of his last three games. He averages 94.2 yards per game while Allen gets 73.8.

When the Ravens have the Ball:

Baltimore Ravens LogoTalk about defensive issues, the Chargers are dead last in the NFL against the run as opponents have ran for 157.4 yards per game thus far. Issues abound when you see Lamar Jackson as he leads the Ravens in rushing with 341 yards and 6.1 per rush and then when you tack on his 67.1 percent completion rate and 306 passing yards per game onto that then this is MVP potential.

The Ravens lead the NFL with 440 total yards per game. LA’s Derwin James, Jr., had 14 tackles in the first half of last week’s win over Cleveland, which was the most tackles in one half by a player since 2007.

Why Bet the OVER 52:

Look at the futility of the Chargers run defense and then the Ravens pass defense and you see why as you check out Lamar Jackson’s numbers and the stats of Justin Herbert. Both coaching staffs never call offensive games away from the strengths and that will be front row and center in what we see on Sunday..

Miami Dolphins (1-4) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-5)

  • Time: 7:30AM PST – 9:30AM CST – 10:30AM EST
  • Place: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

Miami leads the series, 5-4, as the Jaguars have won two of the past three games. Miami took a 31-13 win over the Jaguars in last season’s meeting. This is the Jaguars’ seventh trip to London since the beginning of the 2013 season, but haven’t been to London in three years.

There was no international series last season due to COVID-19. The Jaguars have the third-longest losing streak in NFL history at 20. The Chicago Cardinals of the 1940s lead with 29 and the 1976-77 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (26) are the only two teams that are ahead.

Last Week:

Myles Gaskins scored two touchdowns, one through the air and one on the ground, but the Dolphins were dominated by the Buccaneers, 45-17. Jacoby Brissett passed for 275 yards while Gaskin caught 10 balls for 74 yards. Miami’s defense only stopped Tampa Bay one time to force a punt.

Derrick Henry scored three touchdowns as he rushed 29 times for 130 yards in the Titans’ 37-19 mastery of the Jaguars last Sunday. Trevor Lawrence completed 23 of 33 passes for 273 yards while James Robinson carried the ball 18 times for 149 yards. Jacksonville couldn’t deal with the Titans’ balance as they had 184 yards both on the ground and through the air.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Miami Dolphins -3 (-105) -155 O 47 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (-115) +135 U 47 (-110)

When the Dolphins Have the Ball:

Miami Dolphins LogoMiami looks to get Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup on Sunday as Brissett’a 275 yard passing game last week was the sixth most in his career. The Dolphins are relying more and more on Gaskin, who is proving himself as a starting running back in the scheme. He leads Miami in yards from scrimmage with 298.

The Jaguars have to be wary of rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who was the sixth overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, as he is second in catches by a rookie with 27. Jacksonville allows 408.4 yards on defense while giving up 286.6 passing per game (T/26/NFL). Jags LB Myles Jack has 19 tackles in his last two games vs. Miami and he has six or more tackles in four of his last five games.

When the Jaguars have the Ball:

Jacksonville Jaguars LogoTrevor Lawrence is settling in on a learning curve as he aims for his third game in a row with a QB rating of over 90. He leads all rookie quarterbacks with six touchdown passes while he is second in passing yards at 1,146. Robinson comes off his best game of the season as the 149 yards were a career-high and he looks for 75 or more yards and a rushing touchdown.

The Miami defense has nine quarterback sacks while Lawrence has only been dumped eight times. Keeping him upright will be a key for Jacksonville. Laviska Shinault against Xavien Howard in the passing game is a top-line matchup.

Why Bet the UNDER 47:

Neither team has shown a penchant for consistent offense and finishing drives so far this season. Miami averages only 4.4 yards per play while the Jags allow 6.3 yards per play. Jacksonville kicker Matthew Wright is 0-for-4 in field goal attempts while Miami’s Jason Sanders is 5-for-8.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) vs. Washington Football Team (2-3)

  • Time: 10:00AM PST – 12:00PM CST – 1:00PM EST
  • Place: FedEx Field, Landover, MD
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

Kansas City owns a 9-1 all-time record vs. Washington as the Chiefs have won the last seven meetings which dates back to 1992. Kansas City took a 29-20 win at Arrowhead Stadium in 2017 and Washington Football Team lost it’s last home outing to Kansas City, 45-10, in 2013. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 19-11 vs. Washington and the Chiefs post a 4-1 record at Washington.

Last Game:

Buffalo scored on a 35-yard touchdown pass from Josh Allen to Emmanuel Sanders to take a 14-10 lead with 7:45 remaining in the second quarter and never look back as the Bills throttled the Chiefs, 38-20, at Arrowhead Stadium. The struggling Kansas City defense was on its heels all night as Allen passed for 315 yards and three touchdowns while he also led the Bills in rushing with 59 yards on 11 carries. Patrick Mahomes completed 33-of-54 passes for 272 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions.

New Orleans took a 33-22 win last week over Washington at FedEx Field. Taylor Heinecke threw two interceptions as the second one led to a Saints touchdown which capped the game at 27-16 with 12:12 remaining. Antonio Gibson scored two touchdowns to pace WFT as he had 20 carries for 60 yards.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (-110) -290 O 54.5 (-110)
Washington Football Team +6.5 (-110) +230 U 54.5 (-110)

When the Chiefs Have the Ball:

Kansas City Chiefs LogoAs long as Mahomes is on the field with Tyreek Hill, the quick-strike potential worries all of Kansas City’s opponents. Mahomes will be looking for his seventh road game with two touchdown passes and his fourth in a row with three or more TD passes. Mecole Hardman has a big game Sunday night with nine catches for 76 yards.

Washington gives up 293 yards passing per game (27th/NFL), so a visit from Mahomes and company is not a panacea for WFT’s ills. Washington defensive end Chase Young has recorded five forced fumbles in his first 20 games, which is a team defensive record.

When the Washington have the Ball:

Washington Football Team LogoBoth of these offenses turn the ball over and if Washington’s offense percolated against a Chiefs defense that gives up 437.4 yards per game (31st/NFL) while giving up 32.6 points per game (32nd/NFL). Heinecke completes 64.2 percent of his passes, but he has eight TD tosses with five picks although he has two or more touchdown passes in three of his last four starts.

Kansas City’s lack of a pass rush has only seven sacks so far as this is a major problem with how opposing QBs have been able to riddle the Chiefs’ secondary.

Why Bet the OVER 54.5:

With the firepower on the Kansas City offense and the struggling defense, the OVER is a logical bet for the Chiefs each week. The problem that can arise is if a team can control the Chiefs’ defense with its offense. In that respect, the probability of the OVER is still in play because of the potential to break big plays vs. the KC defense.

Buffalo Bills (4-1) at Tennessee Titans (3-2)

  • Time: 6:15PM PST – 8:15PM CST – 9:15PM EST
  • Place: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
  • TV: ESPN

The Series:

Two of the original old AFL teams renew acquaintances as the then-Houston Oilers and the Bills were two of the eight teams in the newly formed AFL. The Titans posted a 29-19 lead in this series which dates back to year one of the old AFL. This series has mimicked a pendulum as the Oilers won 10 games in a row over the Bills from 1967 to 1978 and Buffalo later went 8-3 from 1983-1994.

The Titans then won eight out of nine before Buffalo has won the last three. Tennessee decked Buffalo, 42-16, last season at Nissan Stadium. This is the first Monday Night Football game at Nissan Stadium since the Titans romped the Colts, 36-22, in 2017.

Last Week:

Derrick Henry rushed for three touchdowns and Ryan Tannehill managed the game with 197 passing yards as Tennessee took out Jacksonville, 37-19. Henry carried the ball 29 times for 130 yards as his 640-yard rushing leads the NFL after five weeks. The Titans gave up 454 yards to the Jacksonville offense, but they had two takeaways in the win.

Revenge was sweet for the Bills in the AFC title game rematch as they scored 17 unanswered points in the second quarter en route to a 38-20 win over the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Josh Allen threw for 315 yards and scored on a 9-yard run in the first quarter to open the scoring for the Bills as they took a 7-3 lead after 15 minutes. He also threw two touchdown passes to Emmanuel Sanders and one to Dawson Knox.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Buffalo Bills -5.5 (-115) -225 O 54 (-110)
Tennessee Titans +5.5 (-105) +205 U 54 (-110)

When the Bills Have the Ball:

Buffalo Bills LogoTurnover margin could be a major key in this game as Buffalo leads the NFL at (+11) while the Titans are at (-3) which is 25th int he NFL. Allen is judicious as he has 12 TD passes and only two interceptions in 183 pass attempts. Tight end Dawson Knox had a career-high 117 yards on five receptions last week as he is serving as a nice complement to Stefon Diggs and Sanders on the outside.

The Tennessee pass defense have struggled in allowing 264.6 yards per game (21st/NFL). Free safety Kevin Byard had a pick-six last week against the Jaguars which went a long way in developing the Titans’ win.

When the Titans have the Ball:

Tennessee Titans LogoDerrick Henry leads the NFL with 640 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns and his yardage total is the most in the history of the franchise in the first five games. Buffalo boats the NFL’s top defense as the frisky Bills’ unit has given up only 251.8 yards (3rd/NFL) per game while the defense against the run checks in at 78.4 yards per game.

Safety Micah Hyde had a 26-yard interception return last week for the first touchdown of his career as he has an interception in each of the last three games.

Why Bet the OVER 54:

Look for the Bills to go for the kill against the struggling Titans pass defense as Allen and company can yield a ton of points on the road. Tennessee has 14 players currently on the injured list and has had yet another COVID-19 outbreak. As long as Henry is on the field, the Titans can put up points as QB Ryan Tannehill has coped with the revolving door at wide out with Julio Jones being out since Week 3 and A.J. Brown also struggling with injuries.

Place Your Bets Now!

Sub Categories:
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.