The Best NFL Over/Under Wagers for Week 7

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers - Over-under Bets

  • Scoring for the Dolphins may be a chore vs. Falcons
  • Buccaneers could put up big numbers when punchless Bears visit
  • 49ers should lasso Colts in Sunday night affair
  • Bengals look two slow the dual threats of Lamar Jackson
  • Henry on notice as Titans will attack Kansas City’s think run defense

Looking for help navigating this week’s NFL offerings? Check out our free picks section here.

Atlanta Falcons (2-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-5)

  • Time: 10:00AM PST – 12:00PM CST – 1:00PM EST
  • Place: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

The Dolphins hold a 9-4 advantage in this series as they have won the last two games. The last game between the two teams occurred in 2017 when Miami edged Atlanta, 20-17. The Falcons’ last win was in 2009 when they stopped the Dolphins, 19-7. Miami and Atlanta are 3-3 in their last six games, dating back to 1998.

Last Week:

Atlanta comes off the bye week, but the Falcons defeated the New York Jets, 27-20, on Oct.10 behind 342 yards passing from Matt Ryan. He hit Kyle Pitts and Hayden Hurst with a pair of touchdown passes as the Falcons took a 20-3 lead at halftime. Pitts had 9 catches for 119 yards in his breakthrough game as a rookie in the NFL. This was the first of the three NFL games slated for London this season.

Miami lost its fifth game in a row as the Dolphins became the first team to fall victim to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 23-20, in London on a walk-off field goal for Jacksonville’s Matthew Wright. Tua Tagovailoa passed for 329 yards and two touchdowns, the second coming on a 2-yard toss to Jaylen Waddle early in the fourth quarter which gave Miami a 20-17 lead.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (-110) -135 O 48 (-110)
Miami Dolphins +2.5 (-110) +115 U 48 (-110)

When the Falcons Have the Ball:

Atlanta Falcons LogoAtlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is playing at a high level as he has thrown for 271.6 yards per game in completing 69.1 percent of his passes. He has fired 10 touchdown passes, four to Cordarrelle Patterson. The rushing game has struggled as Mike Davis is the primary ball carrier in a unit that picks up on 91 yards per game (24th/NFL).

The Miami defense is 30th in the NFL as it gives up 417 yards per game as the pass defense has been in a flux all season in allowing 292.5 (29th/NFL). Linebacker Jerome Baker looks for seven or more tackles in his fourth game in a row.

When the Dolphins have the Ball:

Miami Dolphins LogoTua is back for the Dolphins as he had a solid afternoon vs. the Jaguars, but Miami couldn’t turn many of those 329 yards into points. It was his third career game of over 300 yards, so now if he can just stay healthy. The Dolphins can only muster 290 yards per game on offense and that comes mostly from the passing game as Miami is last in the NFL in rush offense at 71 yards per game.

The Falcons defense is led by a tough pair of linebackers in Foyesade Oluokun and Deion Jones, but this defensive unit only has one interception in its first five games. The Falcons stop the run in allowing 108.2 yards per game (12th/NFL).

Why Bet the UNDER 48:

The Falcons are going to be able to throw the ball all over the yard on this Miami pass defense as Pitts and Hurst could have huge days. The Falcons also have a big advantage with their defense against Miami’s offense. Tua needs a big day and if the Dolphins can finish drives, they can win, and then we will all wish we had taken the OVER. I’m not buying it as it feels like a 24-14 Falcons win.

Chicago Bears (3-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-1)

  • Time: 1:25PM PST – 3:25PM CST – 4:25PM EST
  • Place: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
  • TV: FOX

The Series:

Chicago and Tampa Bay once shared the NFC Central where they played twice per season, but even without those division times, the two have met each season since 2014. The Bears are 5-2 during that span as Tampa Bay has won the two played in Tampa. The Bears took a 20-19 win in Chicago last season on Thursday Night Football. Chicago is Tampa Bay’s most played team as this is the 61st matchup with the Bears holding a 40-20 advantage.

Last Week:

The Bears dropped a 24-14 decision at home to the Green Bay Packers last week. Darnell Mooney caught a 5-yard TD pass from Justin Fields with 8:44 remaining in the game to cut the Bears’ deficit to 17-14, but the defense couldn’t hold off the Packers as they turned around and marched 75 yards and seven plays for the 24-14 win. Khalil Herbert rushed 19 times for 97 yards and a touchdown as Fields passed for 174 yards, but was sacked four times.

The Buccaneers fanned the Eagles, 28-22, on Thursday Night Football last week as Tom Brady went 34 for 42 for 297 yards as he hit OJ Howard and Antonio Brown with a pair of touchdown passes. Leonard Fournette scored twice on the ground as the Buccaneers rolled up a 28-7 lead with 5:47 left in the third quarter. Philly scored twice from there as the Tampa Bay defense fought off a fierce Eagles rally.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Chicago Bears +12 (-110) +435 O 47.5 (-105)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -12 (-110) -600 U 47.5 (-115)

When the Bears Have the Ball:

Chicago Bears LogoJustin Fields is getting himself ensconced in the culture of being an NFL quarterback where he came in against the Lions and engineered a 24-14 win. Khalil Herbert had a solid game last week in back of the injured Damien Williams, who is slated as out for Sunday’s game. Fields has an unknown group of wide receivers in Darnell Mooney, Allen Robinson, III, and Marquise Goodwin. He only has two TDs vs. three picks but has been sacked 18 times in his six appearances.

Tampa Bay’s secondary has been beaten up as they have played in some games without any of their starters. They give up 280 yards through the air (26th/NFL).

When the Buccaneers have the Ball:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers LogoTom Brady is going about business with the moxie of a 24-year old as he has passed for 355.3 yards per game with 14 touchdowns and two picks in three home starts. He looks for his fourth game in a row at home with four or more TD passes. Antonio Brown paced the Bucs’ wide receivers with 93 yards on nine catches and looks for a touchdown in his third straight game.

Leonard Fournette is breathing life into the stumbling Tampa Bay rushing attack as he had six catches and 127 yards from scrimmage (81 rush/46 pass) against the Eagles. Chicago’s defense has been on point. The Bears’ pass defense only gives up 218.7 yards per game, but facing Brady and the talented trio of receivers in Brown, Godwin, and Mike Evans is another chore.

Why Bet the OVER 47.5:

Brady will do damage to the Bears’ secondary, so with the way this team has scored points, especially at home is a harbinger of things to come for the Bears. Fields is getting settled with the young receiving core so watch for him to be able to find maybe Robinson or Mooney down the field for a couple of big plays.

This feels like a game where the Bucs offense hides what is still a litany of issues with the injuries across the boards with the struggling secondary. Something in the neighborhood of 35-16, Bucs, sounds about right..

Indianapolis Colts (2-4) at San Francisco 49ers (2-3)

  • Time: 5:20PM PST – 7:20PM CST – 8:20PM EST
  • Place: Levis Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
  • TV: NBC

The Series:

The Colts have won four in a row vs. the 49ers dating back to the last San Francisco win as the Niners took the Colts, 40-21, in 2001. The last matchup in 2007 saw the Colts take a 26-23 win in overtime. The Colts are making their first trip to Levi’s Stadium as their last visit to San Francisco was in 2013 when they bested the 49ers, 27-7. The Niners come out of their bye week looking for a win in their third consecutive season.

Last Week:

The Houston Texans are the elixir for any struggling team in the NFL as Indianapolis showed in its 31-3 rendering of Houston on Sunday. Carson Wentz passed for 223 yards while Jonathan Taylor carried the ball 14 times for 145 yards and two TDs. The Colts blew the game open midway through the third quarter when Wentz hit tight end Mo Alie-Cox on a 28-yard touchdown pass and then Taylor scored the first of his two TDs as the Colts took a 24-3 lead after three quarters.

The 49ers were off last week as coach Kyle Shanahan will try to help the team right the ship after its 17-10 loss to the Cardinals on Oct. 10 which was San Francisco’s third loss in a row. Trey Lance passed for 192 yards, but he had an interception as the Niners settled into what turned into more of a defensive struggle with high-flying and undefeated Arizona.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Indianapolis Colts +4.5 (-115) -200 O 44 (-105)
San Francisco 49ers -4.5 (-105) +170 U 44 (-115)

When the Colts Have the Ball:

Indianapolis Colts LogoThe Colts gallop for 367.1 yards per game (14th in the NFL) as Wentz has completed 64.2 percent of his passes with nine TDs and only one interception. Taylor can be a powerful runner as he had 145 yards from scrimmage last week and he aims for his fourth in a row with 100-plus yards from scrimmage.

The 49ers’ defense could be a riddle for the Colts as the unit gives up only 329 yards per game (6th/NFL). Nick Bosa checks in with five sacks as that is the most by a 49ers player since Bryant Young turned that trick in 2005.

When the 49ers have the Ball:

San Francisco 49ers LogoIt looks like Jimmy Garoppolo will return from a calf injury on Sunday as he is looking for his fifth game in a row with a touchdown pass. San Francisco has the 15th best pass offense at 246.2 yards per game while the 49ers rush for 122 yards per game (9th/NFL).

Elijah Mitchell and Trey Sermon have buttoned down the 49ers running game in sharing the football. Mitchell leads with 189 yards on 45 carries as six different 49ers have a rushing touchdown. Deebo Samuel has taken over the passing game as he averages 17.7 yards per play on 31catches. Indy gives up 366.5 yards on defense. Linebacker Darius Leonard had seven tackles, an interception, and a forced fumble last week.

Why Bet the UNDER 44:

With Garoppolo back in at quarterback against a fading Indianapolis pass defense, we could see any combination of Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk or George Kittle find the end zone. It will be interesting to see if Taylor can control the ball on the ground for Indy against the Niners’ run defense which gives up 113 yards per game. This feels like a good game to watch as the 49ers get back in the win column 24-20.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-2) at Baltimore Ravens (5-1)

  • Time: 10:00AM PST – 12:00PM CST – 1:00PM EST
  • Place: Ravens Stadium, Baltimore, MD
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

Baltimore has won five in a row and has a 27-23 all-time lead in the series. The Ravens have swept the Bengals in two successive seasons and that had not happened since 2011. Baltimore leads this series, 17-8, in the Charm City, and 14 of the last 22 games have been decided by one score, eight points or less. Baltimore won the last meeting, 38-3, as Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes and the Ravens rushed for 404 yards.

Last Game:

Both teams come off of huge wins as Joe Burrow threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns in the Bengals’ 34-11 victory over the Detroit Lions. Cincinnati blew out to a 20-0 halftime lead as Burrow hit Chris Evans with a 24-yard TD pass in the first quarter and he came back and found Joe Mixon with a 40-yard touchdown toss in the second. Mixon figured in both areas of the game with 18 carries for 94 yards while he hauled in five catches for 59.

Baltimore won its fifth straight game as the defense held Chargers QB Justin Herbert to only 192 yards passing in a 34-6 win for the Ravens. Baltimore’s defense held the Chargers to 26 yards on 12 plays while the offense rushed for 187 yards itself. Lamar Jackson was picked off twice, but he passed for 167 yards and ran for 51 on eight carries.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (-105) +215 O 46.5 (-110)
Baltimore Ravens +6.5 (-115) -265 U 46.5 (-110)

When the Bengals Have the Ball:

Cincinnati Bengals LogoQuarterback Joe Burrow is settling in and amping things up to a higher level as he is looking for this third straight game of at least three touchdown passes. His seven interceptions are troubling and the penchant therein could cause trouble for the Bengals. The Ravens have only picked off four passes this season so Burrow will have to be cognizant of a Ravens’ pass rush that has 14 sacks so far this season.

When the Ravens have the Ball:

Baltimore Ravens LogoThe Ravens have had so many injuries and so much attrition at running back that they signed pretty much anyone who was looking and that paid off last Sunday as La’tavius Murray, Le’Veon Bell, and Devonta Freeman all signed late and had a touchdown each on Sunday. Lamar Jackson is a highlight film every week in the NFL as his 35 wins are the most for any quarterback before his 25th birthday. Hollywood Brown has a TD in two of his last three games and has one in each of the last four meetings with the Bengals.

Why Bet the OVER 46.5:

The playmaking of both quarterbacks will put both teams in a position to score as the big play for players like Jackson, Brown, Mixon, and Ja’Marr Chase is certainly in order. The Bengals defense is ranked seventh in the NFL in allowing 330 yards per game. The matchup to watch is Jackson and the rushing attack vs. the Bengals’ rush defense which allows only 90.5 yards per game (7th/NFL).

Kansas City Chiefs (3-3) at Tennessee Titans (4-2)

  • Time: 10:00AM PST – 12:00PM CST – 1:00PM EST
  • Place: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

The Chiefs have a 30-24 lead in the series, but Tennessee has won the last three regular-season meetings. Kansas City took a 35-24 win in the 2019 AFC Championship game. The Titans had dropped seven out of 10 to Kansas City before winning six in a row from 2014 to 2019. In a wild card game in Kansas City in 2018, the Chiefs had a 21-3 lead before a Titans rally correlated to a 22-21 victory. The 19-point rally was the second largest in NFL history.

Last Week:

Tennessee’s defense stopped Bills quarterback Josh Allen on the Titans’ 3-yard line to preserve the game. Buffalo led 23-17 early in the third quarter before Derrick Henry scored his second touchdown of the game on a 3-yard run. He also opened the scoring for the Titans with a 76-yard touchdown rush in the first period. He closed scoring as well as his 13-yard score with 3:05 was the difference.

Patrick Mahomes rallied the Kansas City Chiefs past the Washington Football Team, 31-13, as he threw pair of second-half touchdowns to Tyreek Hill and Demarcus Robinson. Mahomes passed for 397 yards and two touchdowns as Travis Kelce had eight catches for 99 yards and Tyreek Hill secured nine balls for 76 yards.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Kansas City Chiefs -5 (-110) -225 O 57.5 (-110)
Tennessee Titans +5 (-110) +185 U 57.5 (-110)

When the Chiefs Have the Ball:

Kansas City Chiefs LogoPatrick Mahomes will go after a Titans pass defense that has had issues with injuries all season, but should have Janoris Jenkins and Elijah Molden ready to go on those corners. Tyreek Hill has 46 catches (T/1st/NFL) for 592 yards while Tight end Travis Kelce keeps pace with 38 catches for 468 yards.

Mahomes has passed for 345 yards on average all season. His biggest issue has been that he has more readily thrown interceptions as he has five on the season. The Chiefs will miss running back Clyde Edwards-Hillaire for at least three games as he was put on the IR with a sprained knee which he suffered in the loss to the Bills two weeks ago.

When the Titans have the Ball:

Tennessee Titans LogoHeavy doses of Derrick Henry will be in order in this one as well as he continues to pile up yardage after his 143 yards and 20 carries vs. the Bills. Henry has three different games with three touchdowns this season and looks for his sixth 100-yard rushing game in a row.

The Chiefs’ rushing defense has been gashed overall this season in giving up 133.2 yards on the ground (26th/NFL). The Titans should be able to balance A.J. Brown and Julio Jones against the Chiefs’ pass defense which gives up 277.3 yards (24th/NFL). Jones has 13 catches for 221 yards combined in two games vs. the Chiefs.

Why Bet the OVER 57.5:

The lack of a defensive presence of the Kansas City Chiefs will drive scores up in their games and then it will call for the passing heroics of Patrick Mahomes as a bail-out plan. Defensively, Tennessee struggles vs. the pass much in the same way KC struggles vs. the run. With Derrick Henry looking for his sixth straight 100-yards game, it means points on both sides of the board as the offensive playmakers will decide this game.

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Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

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