The Five Best NFL Over/Unders for Week 11

NFL Over Under Betting Week 11

  • Raiders’ defense braces for Joe Burrow after being rummaged by Patrick Mahomes
  • Seahawks must scored at home to cover the OVER vs. Cardinals
  • Allen, Wentz set for points dual in Buffalo
  • Floundering offenses collide between Steelers and Chargers
  • Potential break out for Buccaneers offense at home against the Giants

If you are looking for a steady sportsbook to bet on the weekend’s quality NFL football action, check our favorite online NFL betting sites in 2021.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) at Las Vegas (5-4)

  • Place: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nev.
  • Time: 1:05 PST, 3:05 CST, 4:05 EST
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

The Raiders hold a 21-11 lead in their series as they are 13-2 in their home venues. Cincinnati has won their of it’s last four meets and four of the last six. The Bengals’ road win in Oakland in 2015 was the Bengals’ only victory in 12 visits into Oakland. The Raiders won the last matchup in Oakland in 2019, 17-10.

Last Time Out:

The Bengals come off the bye week looking to end a two-game losing streak as they lost to the Browns, 41-16 two weeks ago. Denzel Ward picked off a Joe Burrow pass and returned in 99 yards on the Bengals first five of the game and Cincinnati never recovered as Cleveland went up 24-10 at halftime and coasted from there. Burrow threw for 282 yards but had two interceptions on the evening.

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes threw five touchdown passes and passed for 406 yards as the Raiders were no matchup for the resurgent Chiefs, 41-14. The Raiders tied this game early in the second quarter at 7-7 on a 6-yard TD toss from Derek Carr to Hunter Renfrow. The Chiefs scored on four straight possessions in the second half as the Raiders had no remedy for Mahomes.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Cincinnati Bengals -1 (-115) -115 O 51 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders +1 (-105) -105 U 51 (-115)

When the Bengals Have The Ball:

Bengals LogoThe Raiders defense needs to rediscover it’s consistency after allowing 422 yards passing last week and 247 yards on the ground to the Giants two weeks ago. Facing Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and this Bengals pass offense could prove for a long afternoon if adjustments do not work this week.

Burrow has 20 TDs and 11 interceptions, but he has been sacked 25 times. The Las Vegas pass defense has been a lot better overall this season as it has allowed only 231 yards per night (12th/NFL). The struggle may come on the ground against Joe Mixon, who generally gives Cincinnati a serviceable ground game as he faces that Raiders rush defense that gives up 133.9 yards (27th/NFL).

When the Raiders Have The Ball:

Las Vegas Raiders LogoAs it has looked like the sky is falling in the last two games, the Raiders still own the second-best pass offense in the NFL (298.0 ypg) and then Carr, who has struggled to convert drives in these past two games has only three TD passes with three interceptions in those last two outings.

The lack of a solid running game is beginning to show up in defenses for the passing game. Cincinnati has seven interceptions, but 23 sacks with Trey Hendrickson with 8.5.

Why Bet OVER 51:
Carr and Burrow will fashion passing games that will move the ball and score points. The difference in the game is that Chase is the highest level playmaker on either team. Las Vegas needs a break out game from Darren Waller, who had a season-low 24 receiving yards last week.


Arizona Cardinals (8-2)  at Seattle Seahawks (3-6)

  • Place: Lumen Field, Seattle, Wash.
  • Time: 1:25 PST, 3:25 CST, 4:25 EST
  • TV: FOX

The Series:

The Cardinals roll into this game with a 3-0 mark against the NFC West as they have a one-game lead on the Rams in the division. The Cardinals are 5-0 on the road as all five wins come by 12 or more points and is only one of six teams in NFL history to accomplish that feat. Interestingly, the Cardinals are 5-4 on the road vs. Seahawks dynamic quarterback Russell Wilson as they have won four of the last six in Seattle.

Last Time Out:

Russell Wilson was finally back in action, but the Seahawks were shut out, 17-0, at the hands of the Green Bay Packers. It was the first time the Seahawks had been shut out since 2011 when the lost 24-0 in Chicago. Wilson threw for only 161 yards and the ‘Hawks had only 208 total yards on the evening. The game was 3-0 until a pair of short touchdown runs by the Packers’ AJ Dillon in the fourth quarter.

Colt McCoy may be good for one win per year as he threw for 107 yards and the Cardinals were torched, 34-10, by the visiting Carolina Panthers. The first three possessions of the game told the story for the Cardinals as they had two McCoy turnovers and were held on downs as the Panthers cashed in  for 17 points. The Cardinals struggled as they had only 169 yards on the evening.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Arizona Cardinals -2½ (-105) -135 O 47½ (-105)
Seattle Seahawks +2½ 9-115) +105 U 47½ (-115)

When the Seahawks Have The Ball:

Seattle Seahawks LogoWilson should be more settled this week after he has the return game under his belt. Seattle is 30th in the NFL in total offense at 302 yards and they have struggled scoring in averaging only 20.1 points per game. DK Metcalf has 606 yards receiving with eight TDs while Tyler Lockett has 602.

The fact that the running game has been in a flux all season has affected the offense as Chris Carson has been available in only four games. The Cardinals are fourth in the NFL in total defense in allowing only 323 yards per contest and they are fifth against the pass with 206 yards per game. Linebacker Chandler Jones has 13.5 sacks in nine games against the Seahawks while LB Markus Golden has six sacks in his past four roadies.

When the Cardinals Have The Ball:

Arizona Cardinals LogIt looks like quarterback Kyler Murray will be back as he has missed the last two games with an ankle injury and the Cards have got to have him if they are going to get back on track. Especially if they intend to make an actual viable playoff run. Seattle is 31st in the league in giving up 400.6 yards per game.

Not only getting Murray back, but DeAndre Hopkins at wide out as he makes the pass offense fly with Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore and AJ Green.

Why Bet UNDER 47½:
The Seahawks’ offense has been in a choke hold all season and it really was with Wilson out. Now, they face a solid Cardinals’ defense in all three phases and are generally without a running game. Arizona can pile points up with Murray back out there, but the key will be if it takes very long for him to get in sync with his wide receiving corp.


Indianapolis Colts (5-5) at Buffalo Bills (6-3)

  • Place: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, N.Y.
  • Time: 1:05 PST, 3:05 CST, 4:05 EST
  • TV: CBS

The Series:

Buffalo holds a 36-31-1 advantage in this series vs. the Colts as the two teams are former AFC East combatants. The Bills are 4-2 over their last six games as this answered a six-game Indianapolis winning streak. This is a rematch of last season’s AFC Wild Card game where the Bills knocked off the Colts, 27-24, in Orchard Park. Indy has won four out of it’s last five games while Buffalo is 2-2 over it’s last four games.

Last Time Out:

Indianapolis jumped to a 17-0 first quarter lead on Jacksonville thanks to a blocked punt that was returned 12 yards by EJ Speed for a touchdown. Then, the Colts had to hold off a fierce Jaguars rally before taking a 23-17 win. Carson Wentz went 22-of-34 for 180 yards while Michael Pittman continues to be his favorite target with five catches for 71 yards.

Buffalo used a 366-yard, 2-touchdown passing day from Josh Allen as the Bills blew away the New York Jets, 45-17. Buffalo scored 28 unanswered points as four different Bills found the end zone. Stefan Diggs had eight catches for 162 yards while Gabriel Davis went over 100 yards for the first time as he posted three catches for 105 yards.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Indianapolis Colts +7½ (-115) +275 O 49½ (-105)
Buffalo Bills -7½ (-105) -340 U 49½ (-115)

When the Colts Have The Ball:

Indianapolis Colts LogoCarson Wentz has played well of late, but this is still the 22nd pass offense in the NFL as he still has thrown only three interceptions on the season with 17 touchdown passes. The key for him is to get a running game out of Jonathan Taylor and be able to establish another wide receiver besides Pittman.

Taylor has posted 100-yard outings in five of the last seven games, but he faces a Bills rush defense that is third in the NFL and is allowing only 83.9 yards per game.

When the Bills Have The Ball:

Bills LogoJosh Allen had maybe his toughest day as a pro two weeks ago in the Bills’ 9-6 loss to Jacksonville. He came back with the 366-yard performance vs. the Jets. Indy’s pass defense is 20th in the NFL at 249 yards per game and is widely inconsistent. The Jets’ Mike White rolled ups 398 yard outing in the 45-38 Colts’ win two weeks ago.

Allen would love it if Davis had a breakout game last week and could show numbers around Stefon Diggs (86-753) and Sanders (53-505). This would give him three speed receivers to accentuate down the stretch and into the playoffs.

Why Bet OVER 49½:
Even with the greatness of the Bills’ defense, it feels like Wentz could put up some numbers of his own doing as he hasn’t thrown an interception in seven of his last eight starts and he has six TD passes vs. no picks in his last four road starts with a QB rating of 103.2. Allen faces this trembling Colts pass defense where it looks like he can put up some numbers with his deep wide receiving corp. Diggs had his ninth game with the Bills where he went over 100 receiving yards last week.


Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-4)

  • Place: Sofi Stadium, Los Angeles, Ca.
  • Time: 5:20 PST, 7:20 CST, 8:20 EST
  • TV: NBC

The Series:

Pittsburgh has commanded the Chargers over the years with a 23-8 advantage in the series, but they have split the last four games as all of these have been decided by seven points or less. The last Sunday Nighter between these two teams saw the Chargers rally for a three-point win after being behind by 16 points early in the contest.

Last Time Out:

Pittsburgh tied the winless Detroit Lions, 16-16, in one of the ugliest games of the season. The Lions took a 16-10 lead in the third quarter, but the Steelers could only manage two field goals the rest of the way from Chris Boswell. Mason Rudolph had to step in for Ben Roethlisberger, who was symptomatic with COVID-19. His status for the game with the Chargers is still up in the air as he has to clear the protocols before the Steelers are to leave for Los Angeles on Saturday.

The Chargers loss their third of the last four last Sunday when the Minnesota Vikings came into Sofi and knocked off the Chargers, 27-17. Justin Herbert had another tough day in throwing for only 195 yards. LA trailed 13-3 in the first half, but took the lead on a 2-yard touchdown pass from Herbert to Austin Eckler for a 17-13 lead with 10:40 to go in the third quarter. From there it was two punts and field goal as Minnesota answered with a pair of touchdowns by Tyler Conklin and Davin Cook to secure the win.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
Pittsburgh Steelers +5½ (-110) O 46½ (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers -5½ (-110) U 46½ (-110)

When the Steelers Have The Ball:

Pittsburgh Steelers LogoRoethlisberger hardly has the arm strength he used to as his age continues to show each week. Not only that, but Pittsburgh’s running gas has hardly shown this season as it only finds 94.1 yards per game (25th/NFL) behind rookie Najee Harris. He has five games with 100 yards from scrimmage this season and rushed for 105 last week against the Lions.

The Chargers’ defense came apart in the fourth quarter again last week as the biggest problem has been against the run where it surrenders 155.1 yards, last in the NFL.

When the Chargers Have The Ball:

Los Angeles Chargers LogoGetting Herbert to consistently produce again is a huge must as in the last three losses, he had only four touchdown passes with four interceptions and he went under a 60 percent completion rate in two of those. Austin Eckeler needs a big afternoon as Pittsburgh allows 123 yards on the ground per game (23rd/NFL).

He only has 523 rushing yards and one game over 100 this season. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen could have big afternoons as the Pittsburgh pass defense is 23rd in the NFL in allowing 225 yards per game.

Why Bet UNDER 46½:
The struggles of the offenses equate to the UNDER more than the proliferation of defenses. The Steelers aren’t in a good place with the offensive outputs only yielding a little over 20 points per game in the last five. For LA, it’s Herbert as he must snap out of his slump plus Eckeler gives the Chargers very little so far this season as a featured running back.


NY Giants (3-6) at Tampa Bay (6-3)

  • Place: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
  • Time: 5:15 PST, 7:15 CST, 8:15 EST
  • TV: ESPN

The Series:

New York has a 15-8 advantage in this series as the Giants have won two out of the last three outings. The teams have met in each of the last four seasons as they split the four games. New York has won seven of the last nine games dating back to a 19-13 Bucs win in 2003. The Giants post a 7-6 record at the RayJay.

Last Time Out:

The Giants come off their bye week after a 23-16 win over the Raiders two weeks ago. Xavier McKinney picked off Derek Carr twice as one incurred a pick-six with a 41-yard interception return on the Raiders’ first drive of the second hall as they were nursing a 13-10 lead. Devontae Booker rushed for 99 yards on 23 carries for the Giants.

Some might say Tampa Bay was still on it’s bye-week as it came off the bye and fell, 29-19, to Washington. Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady was picked off on his first two drives which resulted in a pair of Washington field goals. Tampa Bay closed to 23-19 on a 40-yard touchdown pass from Brady to Mike Evans with 10:55 remaining. Washington then went on a 19-play, 80-yard march which saw Antonio Gibson scored on a 1-yard TD run with 29 seconds remaining.

Teams Spread Money Line Total Points
New York Giants +10½ (-115) +385 O 50 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -10½ (-105) +-500 U 50 (-110)

When the Giants Have The Ball:

New York Giants LogoThe Giants have played better of late winning two of their last three as that lone loss was a 20-17 decision at Kansas City. The offense is in bad need to gamebreaking players who can put up numbers as the leading rusher is rookie Devontae Booker with 315 yards and the leading receiver is rookie Kadarius Toney, who has netted 352 yards on 28 catches.

Quarterback Daniel Jones only averages 259 yards per game with just eight TD passes vs. five interceptions and he has been sacked 19 times. The Giants find a Bucs defense that is still second in the NFL in rushing defense at 79.8 per game after giving up 100 or more yards in three games in a row. The pass defense has gotten better with players filtering back in after injuries in the secondary. It now has given up 254 yards per game on average (21st/NFL) as it was last earlier in the season. Lavonte David had 14 tackles and a forced fumble last week vs. Washington.

When the Buccaneers Have The Ball:

Brady is looking for success early in the Buccaneers’ passing game that is more than likely 249.9 yards per game (19th/NFL). The jury is out on Antonio Brown air wide receiver after the Tampa Bay Times reported that he had acquired a fake covid vaccine card while the organization maintains it did it’s due diligence and refutes the story.

Chris Godwin and Mike Evans can carry the passing game as Godwin has a receiving touchdown in three of his last four home games while Evans is a “Giant killer” as he has 32 receptions for 582 yards with six touchdowns in five career games vs. the Giants. Could this be the week that the Buccaneers running attack behind Leonard Fournette reappears as the Giants give up 122.6 yards on the ground per game (22nd/NFL)

Why Bet OVER 50:
Whatever the Giants do, this feels like the week that Tom Brady and the Buccaneers break out once again on offense and have a huge passing game and put points on the board. With that even 31-35 points might leave you worried about whether the Giants can cover, but could probably do it through the back door as Tampa Bay is an 11-point  favorite….Feels like 34-17, Bucs.


Sub Categories:
Kenneth Cross / Author

Kenneth Cross is a new entry to The Sports Geek staff as he has 25 years of experience in print, broadcast, and internet sports journalism. Cross is a lover of all sports, but college basketball is his passion. He estimates that he has seen around 1,500 college basketball games - live and in-person - and hopes that grows this season. If you listen to Radio, you have likely heard him on Sundays covering the Carolina Panthers for some 20 years. Now in Tampa Bay, he works as a national radio correspondent.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.