Best NFL Week 16 Underdog Bets

Best NFL Week 16 Underdog Bets

Week 16 of the NFL schedule is Christmas Weekend, with two games on Christmas Day and a full slate on Sunday. The Week 16 schedule opens on Thursday Night Football with the San Francisco 49ers and Tennessee Titans.

The Titans are coming off a loss at Pittsburgh, while the 49ers appear to be swinging in the right direction.

That’s an intriguing matchup to open the Christmas card on Thursday night. Do the Titans bounce back, or do the 49ers keep rolling?

As far as upsets are concerned from last week, we had a monster upset in Detroit. The Lions knocked off the Arizona Cardinals, and it wasn’t close. They’ve nearly beaten some good teams this season and came just short.

In this case, the Lions made it a no-doubter with a 30-12 as the Lions won as 13-point underdogs. The Lions have been one of the best bets against the spread this season despite just two wins.

In other Week 15 upsets, the New Orleans Saints shut out the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday Night Football. It was the first instance where Tom Brady didn’t record a point in his career since 2006.

Let’s handicap the Week 16 slate and potential upsets on the board. Head below for our best NFL Week 16 underdog bets.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Date and Time: December 26, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
NY Giants +10 (-110) -450 Over 42 (-110)
Dallas Cowboys -10 (-110) +350 Under 42 (-110)

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming off a short week after playing on Tuesday night. They hosted the Washington Football Team at Lincoln Financial Field for a Covid delayed matchup.

As I write this, the game has not been completed yet, with the Eagles going into the matchup at 6-7. The Eagles are in the playoff mix but can’t afford any mishaps.

The Giants have no pressure going into Week 16. They’re out of the race and can swing away and hope to play spoiler over a rival. In their most recent attempt, the Giants were defeated by the Cowboys, 21-6.

Mike Glennon and the Giants left a lot of points on the board. They were in the red zone often and couldn’t finish. Glennon threw 3 interceptions and just 99 yards in the loss. He had opportunities and didn’t deliver.

The Cowboys would have been in a close game if the Giants weren’t so bad in the red zone. The Giants are entertaining the idea of starting Jake Fromm, who entered the game and passed for 82 yards on 6-12 passing.

They were threatening frequently, but couldn’t put points on the board. The Cowboys were a play away from not covering that spread. The Eagles and their 28th ranked passing game don’t make me want to lay double digits on a short week.

It’s an unusually short week after playing on Tuesday night for the Eagles. I can’t lay 10 points on the Eagles despite the Giants in bad shape at the moment.

Giants vs. Eagles Pick
NEW YORK GIANTS +10

Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons

Date and Time: December 26, 1:00 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Detroit Lions +5.5 (-110) +190 Over 43 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons -5.5 (-110) -230 Under 43 (-110)

The Detroit Lions are coming off their biggest win in the Dan Campbell era. Despite their record, the pesky Lions, who’ve been competitive this year, put their second win up on the board to advance to 2-11-1 on the season.

The Lions also won over the Minnesota Vikings two weeks back by 29-27. Don’t look now, but the Lions have two wins in their last three games. They struggled on a trip to Mile High Stadium and then came back for a monster upset.

A day after the big win for the Lions, Jared Goff was placed on the Covid list. The Lions are still hopeful that he can return in time for the Falcons on Sunday afternoon. Atlanta returns home after struggling in the red zone at San Francisco.

In a big loss, the Falcons had their chances but fell to 31-13. With a win over the 49ers, the Falcons may have stayed in the playoff race. I don’t see it going into Week 16 at 6-8. Statistically, the Falcons are afloat, though on life support in their attempt at the playoffs.

Detroit is tied in third for the best against the spread record. They are 9-5 ATS with a cover rate of 64.3% in 2021. Pretty good for a team that has only won two games. I’m not interested in laying points with the Falcons. Atlanta has covered just two of their last six games and continually underperform.

In the Lions’ last six outings, they’ve either won, tied, or lost by a field goal or less in two games. In what has been one of the best underdog bets of the season, taking the points with the undervalued Lions is never a bad idea.

Lions vs. Falcons Pick
DETROIT LIONS +5.5

Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints

Date and Time: December 27, 8:15 p.m. EST

The following odds are courtesy of BetOnline:

Teams Spread Moneyline Total
Miami Dolphins +3 (-110) +135 Over 39.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints -3 (-110) -165 Under 39.5 (-110)

The Miami Dolphins did what was required of them to beat the New York Jets last week. It wasn’t perfect. Tua Tagovailoa threw a costly pick-6 in the later stages of the game to make it 24-24 in the 4th quarter.

To Tua’s credit, he immediately responded with a touchdown drive to put the Dolphins back on top for good. His confidence remained strong, and he directed the Dolphins right back down the field. That’s what good quarterbacks do after making a critical mistake.

The Dolphins are the quietest hot team in the NFL. They have won six straight outings and in the wildcard race at 7-7. My only concern is that the Dolphins’ only win during that stretch was versus the Baltimore Ravens, 22-10.

The Dolphins have won the games they’ve had to win, though. They have been playing better football on offense and defense, with Tua playing more confidently.

He goes into Week 16 with 2,141 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 8 interceptions on 69.9% completions. Last week was his first multi-interception game since throwing 2 versus the Atlanta Falcons on October 24.

The Saints are coming off a signature win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 9-0. It was the first time that Tom Brady hasn’t scored a point since 2006. Taysom Hill didn’t do a lot, but he didn’t make the mistakes like Brady made. That sounds like a weird statement, though true.

After a win of that magnitude, I’m not running to the window to back the Saints. It wouldn’t be shocking to see New Orleans coming down a level and overconfident on Monday Night Football. The public will likely be on New Orleans in this one in an overreaction to the Tampa win.

However, Brady has notoriously struggled against the Saints’ defense, and again, a letdown could be very much alive following that type of win. The Saints were on a six-game losing streak before beating the Jets two weeks back, 30-9. I’m not sold on laying points with a confident Dolphins team coming in.

Dolphins vs. Saints Pick
MIAMI DOLPHINS +3
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Kyle E / Author

Kyle is a veteran of TheSportsGeek and has spent nearly a decade providing accurate sports picks and writeups here. He has been a sports handicapper for 10+ years and started sharing his picks and thoughts in 2011 at TheSportsGeek. His expertise spans across multiple sports, including the NFL, NCAAF, MLB, NHL, and horse racing. Prior to writing for TheSportsGeek, Kyle was a fantasy football expert, who ultimately parlayed it into a successful sports betting career. You can find his picks daily only at TheSportsGeek.

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