Alright guys, no more preseason on 2: Green 80, green 80, set hut..hut!
False start. We have a rookie left tackle. My apologies.
Still working out the kinks.
Okay, I’ll stop.
Forgive me. I’m excited.
Today, I wanted to talk about some straightforward odds on whether or not teams NFL will reach the playoffs.
Win totals are carefully calculated and over the years, coin flips have been proven to have as much success as some of the brightest most well-informed minds.
Let’s take a look at last year’s NFC playoff picture and how it played out to refresh our memory.
- The Saints, Bears, and Rams all won their divisions by a comfortable margin of 3 or more games
- Dallas won just 10 games and edged Philly by one contest
- The Eagles and Seahawks were the wild card teams and the only other franchises that won 9 or more games
- The NFC East was the weakest division on paper but both Dallas and Philly won their first-round games
- They would both fall short in the divisional round
- LA edged the Saints by a field goal in the NFC title game
I don’t expect fortunes to shift very much in the 2019 season. Most of the roster and coaching shake-ups have been orchestrated by the front offices of weaker teams.
I think the playoffs themselves will likely produce some different results but we will save that talk for the Wintertime.
The cool thing about the betting odds I’m going to feature today is that we have yes AND no lines.
Betting odds provided by BetOnline.
Let’s make some picks!
- YES (+500)
- NO (-650)
No doubt, curiosity is high in the desert.
The new “Air Raid” offense from controversial hire Kliff Kingsbury should at the very least make opposing defenses adjust.
During that period, it’s possible the Cards may get some unexpected wins but the wounded baby deer they call a defense isn’t going to consistently slow down the vast majority of their opponents.
Also, as good as rookie quarterback Kyler Murray appears to be, he will undergo an adjustment period as well.
Or will he?
Hey, RG3’s rookie season was BY FAR his most successful. How he is still an NFL blows my mind. There have to be better quarterbacks but another conversation for another day.
The Cards division is just too difficult. The Niners, Rams, and Seahawks are all potential playoff teams.
Los Angeles Rams
- YES (-240)
- NO (+200)
I know Sean McVeigh has to have that raw collards and kale tastes lingering on his tongue after nearly being shutout on the world’s biggest stage.
In the Super Bowl earlier this year, the New England Patriots proved that there are indeed levels to this stuff when they shut down the LA Rams vaunted offense holding them to only 3 points.
Luckily for LA and the rest of the NFC for that matter, the Pats reside in the other conference and there are high hopes for Mahomes’ boys to enact some revenge of their own in this year’s playoffs.
In regards to the betting line, I believe the Rams do hold betting value at (-240). This is even in an improved conference who might not have the two best teams but seemingly more very good ones than the AFC.
Well, they re-signed Jared Goff. I’m not completely sold on him yet, but he could have just been sorely missing his #1 target during last year’s postseason.
With the roster that currently surrounds him, he doesn’t have to be a top-five quarterback or even top ten for that matter.
The NFC West looks to be a tighter race in 2019 but I believe the Rams will still find a way to come out on top.
San Francisco 49ers
- YES (+200)
- NO (-240)
I’ll start with that.
But, Jimmy G…
What has he ever done?
I’ve heard plenty of talk but most of it is years old now, and all I’ve seen from Jim is the propensity to do stupid things like taking unnecessary hits.
Even if he indeed leads the San Fran offense to the promised land, they still have the same porous defense.
The Niners were 4-12 last season and they failed to win just one road game.
- YES (+145)
- NO (-165)
So I already told you I’m picking the Rams, therefore I suppose we are talking about a wild card berth for the Hawks.
The biggest news coming out of the Pacific Northwest this offseason has been the departure of Doug Baldwin, whose deteriorating relationship with franchise quarterback Russell Wilson was causing major locker room tension that boiled out onto the field.
He will be missed but if the tension is gone, it was probably worth it.
Lately, the big news is the trade for Jadeveon Clowney. While it’s not like the man he is replacing wasn’t productive, Clowney is a game-changer and a ball-Hawk if you will.
What I love the most about the Seattle front office is their ruthlessness.
I’m talking Pesci-level ruthless; not even Goodfellas but more like Casino.
They haven’t hesitated whatsoever to dismantle the vaunted Legion of Boom defense that led them to back-to-back NFC titles and gave the team the golden opportunity to at their second straight Super Bowl until, well, you know.
Richard Sherman, the face and voice of the team injured-gone.
Earl Thomas, their on-field leader of the defense injured-gone.
The list continues to grow.
If you want to stay relevant, though, it’s imperative you learn to let go.
Pretty good life skill too.
As for their chances this year, I like this team. There are but only two wild card spots, though, and you have to figure either the Cowboys or the Eagles will take one with the ‘G-Men and ‘Skins looking like NFC whipping boys at best.
Atlanta should improve with newfound health and the North might just beat each other into mediocrity.
I think Clowney has a career season challenging the rival Rams’ Aaron Donald for Defensive Player of the Year.
- YES (+120)
- NO (-140)
I’m not buying what’s on the menu in Minnesota. What do they eat up there, anyway?
Okay, if it’s elk, I might change my mind.
“More is expected” is the recurring sentiment among the media and fans.
That’s not good, really.
The kicking game is still a major question mark, and Kirk Cousins has yet to prove he is the game-changer that the Vikings need to surge past Chicago and Green Bay.
Khalil Mack and Aaron Rodgers are players who single-handedly move point spreads from one to two scores.
Until the Vikings prove it, I can’t throw any cash their way.
Green Bay Packers
- YES (+105)
- NO (-125)
A-A-ron is that dude, like we said, but will the chemistry immediately be there with a new head coach?
Even though their defense was the biggest issue last year, they decided to change the offensive scheme and by doing so, decided it would be too much of a sudden shift to switch up the D-coordinator position simultaneously.
That’s two mistakes for the price of one, in my opinion.
Ths team won 6 games last season and the defense gave up 400 points.
I don’t think ditching your Hall of Fame head coach is going to change things that much.
They have a difficult schedule and weak special teams.
- YES (-400)
- NO (+320)
No. Just no.
They are better than the Skins and maybe the Giants but that’s about it.
The NFC is just too strong.
- YES (+105)
- NO (-125)
This is, of course, because the Bears are playing in a strong division but even if the defense gives up a few more points, I trust Mitch Trubisky to at least make strong decisions.
So they lost their defensive coordinator. Fangio’s replacement Chuck Pagano is more than capable of succeeding with the amount of talent and chemistry he has on that side of the ball.
Speaking of, hey the Mack is back. The rest of the Pro Bowl sprinkled and NFL best defense returns as well.
The biggest question is a kicker; a paramount position, especially for a defensive/ball control team.
I’ll take Daaaa Bearss to win the division and if that doesn’t happen, definitely at least a wild card.
- YES (+150)
- NO (-170)
The Atlanta Falcons expect a much healthier squad to take the field in week one.
I don’t know how many NFL games you’ve sat down and watched lately but it’s hard to leave the clicker alone with all of the injury timeouts that are seemingly more and more frequent every year.
Bigger, faster, stronger has its side effects just like anything else.
There are always going to be injuries. The playoff teams’ front offices are already done the work in the offseason to prepare for that.
How many times have we seen Gronk hurt during the year and while he completely changed the face of the Pats offense, they were still able to win enough games without him to make the playoffs.
Atlanta has proven they don’t have the same forethought and depth.
New Orleans Saints
- YES (-260)
- NO (+220)
Drew Brees ages like Napa’s finest and his relationship with head coach Sean Peyton doesn’t sour like the leftover grapes.
I really think they are best friends. The questions will arise whenever one of them leaves or retires but until then, they have my vote.
The New Orleans Saints have outscored their opponents in 2019 by nearly 10 points per ballgame, and won the NFC South by 6 games!
There is just too much excellence and experience within the leadership of this ballclub to pick them to miss the playoffs.
- YES (NA)
- NO (NA)
Their betting lines have been taken down.
Their record has yo-yo’ed every season for about 6 years now but I don’t expect the trend to continue.
The D will be solid! Inconsistency is our enemy, though.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- YES (-565)
- NO (+440)
Only the Oakland Raiders gave up more points in 2018.
But Bruce Arians…
Cool story but he’s not going to be on the field.
Speaking of on the field, what about Jameis?
Either way, the offense will be fun but the days of Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2 are long gone.
New York Giants
- YES (+425)
- NO (-550)
The offensive line is a wreck.
It doesn’t matter if or when they pull Eli, and I don’t care about their respective first-round pick and backup QB Daniel Jones.
The Giants haven’t consistently made intelligent offseason transactions in a long time.
- YES (+450)
- NO (-600)
It’s sad, really.
Owner Dan Snyder doesn’t mind spending the money to get what he wants.
He just wants the wrong people.
You had Kyle Shanahan as your offensive coordinator and potential future head coach, and you let him escape.
Enter Sean McVeigh. Same story.
The Redskins are my team but I am growing weary.
Oh well. I still hate the Cowboys.
- YES (+115)
- NO (-135)
The Boys will have 4 easy wins off the bat this year against the aforementioned Giants and Redskins, rivalry game or not.
If you’ve done the math, then you already can see where I’m going with these final two picks.
Dallas has a great defense, weak division, and…
I hate them so much. This is hard for me. The kicking game isn’t projected to be as good as it normally is.
Signing Robert Quinn to help with the double teams on Dexter Lawrence may be low key one of the best offseason moves in all of football.
I believe Zeke will eventually get his well-deserved raise and Dak will be Dak. What I mean by that is that he will do enough.
Amari Cooper is just a bonus.
- YES (-230)
- NO (+190)
Now for the team with the second-worst fans in all of football.
I’m sure you could guess my take on #1 in the previous section.
Philly is now past their post-Super Bowl slump that seems to overcome most teams not named the New England Patriots.
I expect a hungrier group. They improved the roster on the defensive line, running back, and wide receiver.
Their over/under is at 10. I think that should tell you something.
Also, Wentz > Goff.
NFL kickoff is almost here!
It’s been a long offseason.
As a Redskin fan, mine started around October of last year, so…
There are plenty of interesting storylines in the NFC this year.
- Dallas head coach Jason Garrett is under heavy pressure, and when is Zeke coming back?
- Will Bruce Arians be the right man to bromance Jameis Winston in Tampa?
- Will the return of Cooper Kupp help the Rams repeat as conference champs?
- Will the Redskins and Giants make the playoffs?
Okay, just making sure you’re still with me.
Get your bets in ASAP and enjoy the games this weekend!