Happy New Year football fans! I hope your betting bankroll for 2019 did not end in the red.
If you stuck with us for your betting picks, then you should be well ahead at this point.
Hopefully, you did the responsible thing and got your child books and a musical instrument for Christmas but you’re probably like most and bought “them” a Playstation 4.
I’m not judging but I think in 2020, we all could use a little more Kerouac and Bach and a little less Call of Duty and Colin Cowherd.
The NFL Playoffs begin this Saturday with Wild Card Weekend and all four matchups are quite interesting.
I think New Orleans will handle the Vikings but crazier things have happened…
It doesn’t really seem like the New Orleans Saints of the 2019 season should be playing this week.
I think they can definitely get to the Super Bowl and match up very well with the favorites of the AFC: the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs.
Are there any other teams playing this weekend from the NFC that can make it to the big game?
Russell Wilson, though, has just been unbelievable. His defense is ranked near the worst in passing and rush defense yet he manages to keep them in every ball game and made some of the best throws of his career in 2019.
Will the late addition of Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch make the difference for the Hawks who are without their top 3 running backs?
The Seattle defense along with that of the Green Bay Packers are both liabilities in the postseason.
I think we are mostly at a 4-6 horse race right now with the Saints, 49ers, Ravens, and Chiefs.
New England and Green Bay have Tom Brady and A-a-ron Rodgers but the Pats still have trouble moving the ball and the Green Bay D can’t stop anybody.
There is a plethora of betting odds available for us this week picking the AFC champ, NFC champ, and the Super Bowl champ as well as picking the particular matchups of the three different games.
The online sportsbook BetOnline.ag has the goods for us this week.
Let’s look at some of these betting odds, balance the most likely outcomes with a little bit of value, and make our predictions.
Odds to Win the NFC Championship
Assuming the New Orleans Saints win this weekend versus the Minnesota Vikings, they will play the Green Bay Packers the following week AT Lambeau Field.
That makes a massive difference for a home field loving dome team like New Orleans, especially in January.
Meanwhile, Rodgers will literally be right at home. That makes it hard for me to pick those guys.
They are going to have to win likely two playoff road games to get to the Super Bowl. Even with a 7-1 road record, I am leaning the other way.
The Hawks and the Packers have great quarterbacks but weak defenses. Rodgers only has confidence in one of his receiving targets and as we mentioned a minute ago, Seattle is down their three best ball carriers.
The Niners are now the healthiest bunch as well. I know the (+125) isn’t jack squat considering the playoffs haven’t even begun but San Fran’s potential road to South Beach is fairly clear.
I really only worry about them in what would be the third matchup of the season with the Seahawks if they win this week. Both games came down to inches in the end.
I will give the Niners the edge because of their roster but the collective abilities of Jadeveon Clowney on defense and Russell Wilson on offense are each enough to change the course of an entire contest.
I’m not mad at anyone picking Seattle here as a dark horse but San Francisco is the pick here.
Sure, (+1200) sounds great but San Fran needs just two victories to do so and both opportunities will be at home.
Odds to Win the AFC Championship
Clearly, the sportsbooks are heavily favoring John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens to represent the conference in the Super Bowl in 2020.
MINUS 125 is crazy when you think about the fact that the playoffs haven’t even started yet.
Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are as explosive as anybody and the Pats are still the Pats.
Having any team led by Deshaun Watson down at 25 to 1 odds is a little ridiculous if you ask me.
Sure, their defense is not nearly the force it has been over the past few years but Watson and Hopkins are nearly unstoppable.
I don’t care how you defend it. If Deshaun has time to throw it, he will give Hopkins a chance to make a play and there may not be another wide receiver in the entire league I would rather have on my side in a jump ball situation.
The Buffalo Bills are out. There’s no way a second-year quarterback with a limited skill set and minimal weapons is going to win games over guys like Mahomes or Brady.
The Titans are very dangerous but going back to my previous statement, Tannehill isn’t going to beat two out of those three guys and that’s probably what it’s going to take.
Yes, but their defense won’t be able to get as many stops as the Ravens or Pats will and they simply don’t have nearly as many offensive options as the Chiefs. They will also have to do it all on the road after this week and that’s just not likely at all.
This leaves the top three teams.
After starting the season 4-0 including a win over the Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs then went on a 4 game losing streak, split the next two, and have since won their last 6.
It appears they are peaking at the right time. I know what you’re going to say, though.
They have no defense. They can’t stop anybody. Their recent game log suggests otherwise, though.
The KC defense has held 3 of their last 6 opponents to single digits. Those opponents were the Bears, Broncos, and Raiders but still impressive.
Baltimore has won 12 in a row, though! Lamar Jackson has changed the league! I’m just not buying this year’s narrative completely.
We have heard that the Pats are done and gone for years now and they seem to put themselves right back in a position to win another Super Bowl year after year.
Trust me. If the Pats win this week, the payout for them to win the conference will be cut in half.
If you still want to bet the Ravens after this weekend, you can. Their odds will likely remain steady. That’s just a little strategy and taking advantage of the number.
Belichick beat Mahomes when he was all the rage. They can do the same thing to Lamar Jackson.
Odds to Win the Super Bowl
This is where it gets even harder. The rewards don’t really match the renewed risk, in my opinion.
We have already eliminated several teams from the conference championship race so we don’t need to discuss their chances any further.
I think Seattle has just as good of a chance to do it as the Packers and the payout is more than double.
There’s that but Seattle has had to will their way to nearly every win this season and while it’s remarkable they have been able to overachieve as a unit, the road will stop soon enough.
This leaves us 5 teams and the defending champs have the highest payout at 10 to 1.
Say the Pats make the Super Bowl.
Then, they have to deal with Jimmy “Happy Feet” G.
Don’t think we forgot about how you got all giddy and didn’t play your best at the end of both Seattle games, Jimmy.
Just get the ball to Kittle and call it a day.
The Pats not having Gronk and the Niners utilizing Gronk 2.0 aka George Kittle are both scary thoughts for the defending champs.
If the Saints had a bye week instead of the Packers, I would get behind them more but I like San Francisco to come out of the NFC and be favored to beat the Pats in the big game.
Will they do it?
It’s hard to say but as I referenced earlier, give me the best defense in the league, the best coach ever, oh and the best quarterback ever with 10 to 1 odds to win the Super Bowl and I will…
Name the Finalists
There are many different bets available to predict the Super Bowl participants but as you can imagine, this isn’t professional bettor territory but could be quite the bonus for us early on in 2020.
It’s clear after looking at the betting lines we did today as well as these name the finalist odds that the sportsbooks are heavily favoring a Niner/Raven Super Bowl.
It is a very good possibility but as the playoffs progress, the payouts aren’t going to shrink as quickly as the odds for a team like the Pats will.
Let’s just go waaaay out on a limb here and say New England wins their playoff game against Tennessee (crazy, I know)…
The narrative heading into the divisional round of the playoffs will be “Oh my gosh. The Pats are back..Brady has such a nice jawline…blah blah blah.”
This isn’t a crazy pick. Both of these teams are 12-4.
Between the two organizations, they have the best quarterback of all-time, best coach of all-time, and a QB who learned under each GOAT.
Both defenses are tied for first place on the season for opponent’s yards per play allowed with 4.7.
I think San Fran has the weapons and the better pash rush but it’s hard to bet against Brady.
We are all too freaking familiar with that, ugh.
For predicting the potential matchup, though, the value of the (+1600) is too much to ignore.
I was born ready for the NFL Playoffs! My only complaint is that they are only a few weeks long. 4 games this week. 4 games next week. 2 after that. Then just one more a month from now.
If only the NFL Playoffs dragged on half as long as the NBA Playoffs, I would be a much happier man.
Well, I suppose that’s arguable because the honey-do list will only get longer and the girlfriend doesn’t want to give up activity time on both Saturday and Sunday.
Picking the conference champs as well as a Super Bowl champion is pretty difficult at this point but we have to know that we will have the same opportunities in the coming weeks.
We just won’t have the same options.
Teams that have a bye this week will mostly have the same odds next week for a Super Bowl appearance and/or victory as they do today.
That’s why I would take a step back and look for a sleeper right now.
Seattle isn’t the worst bet as they have certified game changers on both sides of the ball and have proven they can hang with anyone.
The bet right now, though, is the Pats.
If you want a payout worth the risk of betting on a team with no momentum, then jump on it now.
If you were looking for some action picking this week’s playoff games, check out our NFL picks section as well as our favorite online betting sites.
Until next time, team…tune in, turn up, and bet hard!