BMW Championship Betting Preview

PGA Tour BMW Championship - Aronimink Golf Club

You could call it the semi-finals. You could call it the conference championship.

Or maybe just call it the BMW Championship. That has a pretty good ring to it already.

This week’s tournament is the third out of four playoff events for the FedEx Cup Championship and the third longest running event in professional golf.

The 2018 BMW Championship will take place at the Aronimink Golf Club a suburb east of Philadelphia, PA after being held in Illinois 6 out of the last 8 years.

The tournament has been voted the best in golf several different years including a three-peat from 2012-2014.

Golfers on the PGA Tour are undoubtedly happy and thankful to still be playing the sport they love right now after we’ve seen the field shrink from 150 down to the 70 we will see tee off on Thursday.

These next few weeks should be fairly epic for golf fans and there’s no reason bettors can’t enjoy themselves too. Well, if all your bets are losing then you may not enjoy yourself to the fullest but that’s why you’re reading this.

BetOnline has odds on the entire field. Today, I have some favorites for you and a few sleepers that can net you some cash this weekend.

Let’s go ahead and jump into a quick overview of some of the favorites, note the best value and make a few picks.

Favorites to Win the BMW Championship

  • Dustin Johnson: +750
  • Justin Rose: +1200
  • Brooks Koepka: +1400
  • Justin Thomas: +1400
  • Bryson DeChambeau: +1600
  • Rory McIlroy: +1600
  • Jason Day: +2000
  • Jordan Spieth: +2000
  • Tiger Woods: +2200
  • Rickie Fowler: +2500
  • Francesco Molinari: +2800

Tough crowd.

This is really a tough crowd. Look at all the skill among these golfers. I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these 11 golfers find themselves celebrating with a cold beverage in the clubhouse on Sunday.

Dustin has been the best all of 2018…except for these playoffs and in majors the past 2 years.

He finished tied for 11th at the Northern Trust and also in a tie for 7th at last week’s Dell Technologies Championship.

He did come roaring back (Sorry Tiger) in the final round this past Sunday finishing 7 under par for the final 18 holes but unfortunately fell quite short of DeChambeau’s 16 under par for the weekend.

Bryson, on the other hand, is red hot.

Captain obvious, I know.

He really has been impressive, though. Not many experts were picking him to win the Northern Trust and even less believed he could go back-to-back in the playoffs with a win at the Dell Championship.

For his own sake, he should just not win this week. If he wins in Philly, then he will be attempting to win 4 straight. As a numbers guy, I will always see winning three out of four as being less difficult than winning 4 straight but if he has that kind of confidence and rhythm heading into the Tour championship, watch out.

Justin Rose is getting some extra love this week as the 2nd man down the list of betting lines behind Dustin Johnson.

I think this is because he has won a tournament at Aronimink before. It was way back in 2010 when he shot a 270 that was good enough for 10 under par and a victory at the AT&T National.

This means he has played the course well, but this field is full of only the best in the world. Any golfer teeing off on Thursday can finish out the tournament atop Sunday’s leaderboard.

I like Rose and Johnson to play well, and you obviously can’t count out Bryson DeChambeau.

Rickie Fowler is another name I think we will see near or at the top of the leaderboard this weekend. The “Pastel Pompadour” had not one but two bye weeks in this year’s playoffs.

Dog ’on Tom Brady doesn’t even get two bye weeks!

Rickie played well enough in 2018, though, that afforded him the opportunity to rest a lingering right oblique strain for a couple weeks after the PGA Championship as well as focusing ahead on just two difficult golf courses instead of four.

I’m not telling you to stay away from Tiger, Rory, or Ed Hochuli’s son Brooks Koepka.

I just like Rose, Johnson, and Fowler a little better this week.

What about those sleepers, though?

Sleepers to Win the BMW Championship

  • Jon Rahm: +3300
  • Patrick Cantlay: +3300
  • Billy Horschel: +5000
  • Bubba Watson: +5000
  • Henrik Stenson: +5000
  • Marc Leishman: +5000
  • Patrick Reed: +5000
  • Webb Simpson: +5000

Yes, these are the sleepers!

They are some of the best in the world, but right about now on the PGA Tour the thickness of the competition rivals the darn Amazon rainforest.

Webb Simpson is a guy that can get very hot. Even though he hasn’t been swinging the club well in the playoffs so far, that doesn’t mean he can’t turn it around. If he does, though, he will likely jump right into the zone.

Patrick Reed won the Masters but it seems like so long ago. Patrick has finished inside the top ten just once in his past 12 tournaments. This is another guy who is due to break out of his slump.

What about the guys near the cutoff of 30 that we will see after the last golfer putts the 18th on Sunday?

Henrik Stenson should be on his best game for the BMW Championship. He has to make up 30 spots from 60th.

How did he get all the way down there?

Statistically, he is one of the best but the points are weighted in the playoffs where he hasn’t played well.

Jon Rahm is 19th and Marc Leishman comes in at 22nd. With all of the world-class talent surrounding them in the FedEx Cup points standings, these two will need to excel as opposed to just “get by” again.

In Conclusion

I’m very excited for this week’s tournament. More golfers will be cut from the playoff field than guys who actually compete.

Right now, the FedEx Cup playoffs sit at 70 golfers. Many of these guys are the world’s best, but several won’t make it to the Tour Championship next week down in Atlanta.

It has been a very good year for golf with the emergence of another potential superstar in Brooks Koepka as well as a resurgence (somewhat) from the greatest player of our time, Tiger Woods.

Let’s go with Dustin Johnson, Justin Rose, and Rickie Fowler as well as a little cash on “sleepers” Henrik Stenson, Jon Rahm, and the Aussie Marc Leishman.

Picking a winner out of this field is highly unlikely. That’s why the Masters winner Patrick Reed is (+5000).

Top tip:
Consider taking some of your picks to win, whether they be favorites or sleepers, and bet on these guys to finish in the top 10. You could do top 5 as well, but the leaderboard is likely to be as crowded as a Tokyo subway at rush hour.

Don’t get greedy. It won’t get you every time, but it always catches up sooner or later.

Those are the people that keep the light on at the MGM.

Don’t be like them.

Be smart, tactical, and calculated…just like your favorite golfer.

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