Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol Odds, Props and Predictions

Canelo Bivol Legacy Is Earned

Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol odds have shifted since opening, more strongly in favor of Canelo. We’re taking a deep look at each category of betting on Bovada, one of our premier Boxing betting sites. The Canelo Alvarez fight odds opened at -360 but have stabilized for the past week at a strong -600 favorite status. We’re offering our predictions on the money line and each of the prop betting markets

What Time Does Canelo Alvarez Fight Start?
The Canelo vs Bivol fight is scheduled to start at 11:00 PM ET on 5/7/22. You can watch the whole card on FITE PPV or DAZN PPV. 

Canelo (-600) vs Bivol (+395) Money Line Bets 

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The money line bet is the first time in Bivol’s career he’s been the underdog. BIvol has ranged from -160 to -8000 over his last six fights, and as low as -450 across all fights against Sullivan Barrera back in 2018. 

Canelo’s Betting History

Past Canelo Alvarez fight odds range from +180 against GGG to -3300 against Avni Yildrim over his last ten. The last few times he was at -600 was the fight with Callum Smith, and again with Billy Joe Saunders. He was also a -600 in his brutal finish of Amir Khan from 2016. 

Money Line Betting Pick

The Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol odds show a clear history of what Canelo is capable of against men at Bivol’s level. We’ll cover the boxing analysis in our pick, but it’s clear to us that Canelo is adding another title to his record. Bet the Canelo Money line at -600, a $16.67 return per $100 wagered. 

Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol Odds on Over/Under Bets

Round Over Under 
3.5 +1600
4.5 -3300 +900
5.5 -2000 +750
6.5 -1100 +550
7.5 -650 +375
8.5 -525 +325
9.5 -415 +260
10.5 -315 +210
Goes the Distance Yes -255 No +178

The Over stays the favorite with neither side ever going to EVEN territory. Bivol is undefeated, but Canelo has offered the first knockout defeats of Plant and Billy Joe Saunders in his last two bouts. Canelo finished them in rounds 11 and 8 respectively. 

Biolv’s Record and Average Finishing Round

Bivol is a decision fighter at the higher levels. His last six wins have all been by unanimous decision. He’s held the WBA interim belt for since 2016, earning it in his fifth professional fight. He became the undisputed champ with a first round TKO in 2017, and scored one more champion level KO in rounds twelve before his six fight decision streak. 

Can Bivol Finish Canelo?

In my mind, no. Canelo hasn’t been finished, and Bivol is no GGG. Canelo would have to have a very off night and Bivol the night of his life to finish Canelo. Bivol has plenty of first round knockouts, but his power isn’t world class and his best opponents are frustrated but not concussed with his power. 

Where should I bet on the Over Under Prop?

Canelo has two finishes in round 11 over his last five fights, indicating that Bivol’s technical style will have staying power against Canelo. I don’t know that Bivol has the chin of Daniel Jacobs (who went to decision with Canelo) and he certainly doesn’t have the head movement.
Bet the Over 7.5 if you think Bivol has a chance, and the Under 10.5 if you’re money is on a Canelo knockout. Canelo Alvarez fight odds are just too good of a money line to gamble on a long fight.  

Canelo’s ability to fight larger fighters has evolved since his back to back bouts with GGG, and you can see the changes in between his two GGG appearances.

Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol Odds on Round Betting 

Round (TKO Finish)  Alvarez Bets  Bivol Bets
Points (Decision win) -150 +700
Round 1 +6600 +10000
Round 2 +6600 +10000
Round 3 +4000 +10000
Round 4 +3300 +8000
Round 5 +2500 +6000
Round 6 +2200 +5000
Round 7 +2000 +5000
Round 8 +1800 +5000
Round 9 +1600 +5000
Round 10 +1800 +5000
Round 11 +2000 +5000
Round 12  +2400 +6600

Canelo’s round betting odds look best at Round 11, where he has finished two of his last five opponents. Dmitry has a strange number of Round 4 knockouts, six in total across eleven knockouts. 

What Round will Canelo Knockout Bivol?

I would focus on round eleven and round twelve. Bivol has been hit pretty hard and uses a range focused style that may force Canelo to take his time and use head movement to draw out Bivol’s punches. This will make for a longer fight. 

What Round Could Bivol Knockout Canelo?

Looking at his last six fights, a decision win is one of the only props worth taking. If you’re a Bivol fan looking for a longshot win, the fourth round TKO is his most common, but I think a 12th round TKO would be his only real chance at a finish. 

Dmitry is no slouch and this fight will be competitive early on. I see Canelo turning the tide in rounds 5-9.
Bet the Canelo Eleventh round TKO at +2000 or the Bivol decision win at +700. 

Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol Odds on Round Betting Groups 

Round Group (TKO Finish) Canelo Alvarez Group Bet Dmitry Bivol Group Bet 
Rounds 1-2 +3300 +8000
Rounds 3-4 +2000 +5000
Rounds 5-6 +1200 +3300
Rounds 7-8 +1000 +2500
Rounds 9-10 +1000 +2500
Rounds 11-12 +1200 +3300
Rounds 1-3 +2200 +6600
Rounds 4-6 +1000 +2800
Rounds 7-9 +700 +2000
Rounds 10-12 +750 +2200
Rounds 1-6 +850 +2500
Rounds 7-12 +350 +1200

The Round groups like a late knockout for Canelo. The difference in round groups and individual round bets for Bivol is minimal, so you’re better off taking a round group bet than an individual round bet. 

Top Bivol Round Bets

Taking Rounds 1-6 or 7-12 are the only Bivol round picks to consider. The knockout is already rare for him, garnering zero in his last seven fights. If he does catch Canelo, it will be a once in a lifetime performance. 

Top Round Bet Picks for Canelo vs Bivol

The Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol odds give us an easy choice. Canelo in rounds 7-12 at +350 seems like an easy front runner. A 3 ½ times your money bet for a fighter that’s won three of his last five by late round finish isn’t too bad. His earliest knockout was Avni Yildrim, but he’d been finished prior to the Canelo fight. Bivol has much more self preservation and will offer Canelo a longer fight. 

Canelo Alvarez vs Dmitry Bivol Odds on Fight Props and Fight Outcome Props 

Bet  Canelo Alvarez Dmitry Bivol 
KO  +280 +1700
Decision -152 +725
Draw  +1600 +1600
Will the Fight Go the Distance? Yes -255 No +178

The Canelo knockout prop is just a tad too low. Considering the money line at -600, I would rather take the 7-12 Round group knockout prop. Bivol by decision at +725 aligns with all of his toughest challenges to date. Bivol’s defeat of Umar Salamov was a clinical 12 round decision that showed weaknesses but convinced many that Bivol has the right chin for fighting Canelo. 

Canelo Alvarez Top Betting Pick

Focus on the money line. The props are tantalizing, but Bivol’s one-two style is the kind of Olympic boxing that Alvarez ends up going the distance with. Of the 16 champions that Canelo has defeated, he’s gone to decision with nine of them. 

Dmitry Bivol Top Betting Pick

Fan’s of Bivol know the game plan: fight like it’s Olympic Gold on the line. For that reason, the Bivol Decision prop bet at +725 is the best bet for Bivol fans. I think Canelo is going to win in dominant fashion, but Bivol fan’s should capitalize on knowing that Bivol can’t win by knockout but he can win by being a frustration to the GOAT. 


Jacob Clark / Author

Jacob Clark had a 15 year career as a professional MMA fighter, coach, and Greg Jackson’s alum. Now, TikTok’s 12th most important BJJ influencer is bringing his sports and betting knowledge to you here at TheSportsGeek. He spends his time cooking vietnamese food and playing D&D with his family. You can meet him at jiu-jitsu open mats all over Indiana.

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