The madness is finally here! In the last couple of days, we have already seen 3 teams punch their tickets to the Big Dance, as Loyola Chicago, Longwood, and Murray State all won their respective conference tournaments and are set to head to the NCAA basketball tournament with auto-bids. The various bubble teams all exhaled a sigh of relief when Murray State and Loyola Chicago took care of business, as both teams were potential bid stealers, that would have gotten into the tournament as at-large teams if they didn’t get in on auto-bids.
Today, while we have a light slate of games, with just 10 games set to be played, we have games that carry a lot of NCAA tournament implications with them! Will teams like Gonzaga and St. Mary’s stay alive and keep the bubble intact, with teams like Santa Clara and San Francisco fighting to steal bids? And which team will be next to punch their dance card, as we have conference tournament championship games in the SOCON and Sun Belt, where a couple more teams will advance to the field of 68.
— FOX Bet Live (@FOXBetLive) March 7, 2022
Today’s action includes semifinal games from the WCC, the Horizon League, the Summit League, and the Colonial to go along with the finals from the SOCON and the Sun Belt. Small conference Cinderella’s are what makes the NCAA tournament so great, and today we are going to see those teams battle it out to hear their names called on Selection Sunday this weekend. With that, let’s jump right into today’s postseason edition of everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Magic Parlay
Our money line magic college basketball parlay is a parlay that is made up of exclusively money line bets. Unlike point spread plays where a team has to win by a certain amount of points to win your bet, on a money line play, all your team has to do is win the game to get you paid. To make up for the fact that some teams are favorites and others are underdogs, you are going to either lay odds when betting on favorites or be paid out at odds for your bet if you take the underdog.
Furman Paladins at Chattanooga Mocs (-140)
Our first play of the day comes to us from the championship game of the SOCON tournament, where Furman and Chattanooga will play for the rights to go dancing, with the winning team taking home the SOCON title and the auto-bid into the Big Dance that comes with it. It is fitting that we have a matchup between the Paladins and the Mocs for the SOCON title, as these teams have been the best in the league all season long, and they came into this tournament as the top seeds.
The difference between the Mocs winning the regular season title and not the Paladins came down to their head-to-head games, as Chattanooga swept the season series over Furman in a pair of tightly contested games. Had the Paladins been able to split the season series, the teams would have tied for that regular season title, and this game will be Furman’s chance to have the last laugh with a win that would end the Moc’s chances of making the NCAA tournament.
Championship Monday. ESPN. This is what you dream about. LET'S GO! ?
— Chattanooga Mocs MBB (@GoMocsMBB) March 7, 2022
I have seen Chattanooga as the team to beat in the SOCON all year, and if it weren’t for a late-season skid that saw them lose back-to-back games to UNC Greensboro and VMI, you could have made a case that the Mocs should be part of the at-large bid conversation. But that isn’t the case anymore, as it is now win or go home for Chattanooga, and I expect them to keep their season alive with the win tonight.
Furman did a respectable job of not allowing their struggles in the 2nd half of the regular season follow them into postseason play, as they started league play by winning 9 of their first 11 games but went just 3-4 in their last 7 games to close out the season. Furman beat Mercer in their opening game but barely snuck past Samford last night, and while it is exceedingly difficult to beat a team 3 times in one season, I see the Mocs as being the far superior team, and that is what I expect to happen. Give me Chattanooga, as they become the next team to lock in their spot in the Big Dance, with a hard-fought victory over Furman.
South Dakota Coyotes at South Dakota State Jackrabbits (-385)
Occasionally we see a team that is significantly better than the rest of their league. Once in a while, this happens in the power conferences, but generally, we only see total domination in the mid-major and smaller leagues. The South Dakota State Jackrabbits have been a prime example of that in the last several years, as they have made a mockery of the Summit League.
Going back to 2018, the Jackrabbits are 67-9 in conference play, which is over an 88%-win rate. That includes this year’s perfect 18-0 record, as SD State has put a large distance between themselves and the rest of their conference counterparts. Even against their in-state rivals, the Coyotes of South Dakota, the Jackrabbits have been dominant, as they beat the Coyotes twice this season, with both wins coming by double digits and an average margin of victory of nearly 15 points per game.
GAMEDAY in Sioux Falls?
? South Dakota
⏰ 6 p.m.
? Sioux Falls, S.D.
?️ Denny Sanford PREMIER Center
? https://t.co/I285TclWdX (@JSNAudio)
? https://t.co/fqAgn0JxIp (@MidcoSports)
? https://t.co/3VZZF6RFPm#GoJacks? pic.twitter.com/Qq4e5loSl5
— Jackrabbit Basketball (@GoJacksMBB) March 7, 2022
There are never any true locks when you are betting college basketball, but this is about as close as it comes to being one, as South Dakota isn’t losing this game. They aren’t going to lose in the Summit League finals either, and when the Jackrabbits do find their way into the NCAA tournament, watch out, as they are going to be a supremely tough out in March. This is a lot of wood to lay on a single game, but free money is free money, and I will snatch that up tonight with a play on the Jackrabbits.
Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Towson Tigers (-205)
The Colonial Athletic Association is down to just 4 teams remaining as the league hits the semifinals of their conference tournament today. The CAA isn’t a great league by any means, but they are in the top half of the country when it comes to overall strength per Kenpom, so it is at least a decent league. That being said, there is one team that stands out as clearly the best from the Colonial this year, the Towson Tigers.
— #1 Seed Towson Men's Basketball (@Towson_MBB) March 7, 2022
Towson is the only team in the CAA ranked inside the top-100 nationally, and they rank nearly 80 spots higher on Pomeroy’s rankings than any of the other reaming teams in this tournament. The Tigers opened up league play with a loss to Drexel, but since that loss, they have won 16 of their last 18 games. Winning in March is all about momentum, and the Tigers certainly have it right now. Towson will have their hands full tonight against Delaware, as the Blue Hens played them as well as any other team in the CAA during the regular season.
Delaware didn’t manage to beat Towson in either of their meetings this year, but the games were fairly competitive, and I would expect more of the same tonight with so much on the line. That being said, I see the Tigers as being on a much higher level than the Blue Hens, and while this game is going to be one where the Hens give it their all, I don’t think it is going to be enough to knock off conference kingpin Towson. I will back the Tigers as favorites as they win and advance to the CAA finals tonight against Delaware.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Chattanooga Mocs -140
- South Dakota State Jackrabbits -385
- Towson Tigers -205
$100 Bet Pays $322
Game Total Parlay
Game total plays are commonly referred to as over/under bets because you are betting over or under the posted point total for a game. The game total is calculated by adding up the final scores of both teams. If that total score adds up to more than the total, the over bets win. If the total score adds up to under that total, bets on the under win. If the total score lands exactly on the posted total, all bets push.
Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Towson Tigers Over 136.5
We won’t go far for our next play, as we will stay right here in the CAA semis for the game between Towson and Delaware, as I have an opinion on the total as well as the side. This number opened up at 140.5 points, and that line felt a bit low, as Kenpom has this one finishing at 142 points. But the public hasn’t seen it that way, as they have been hammering the under all morning long, driving this total down a whopping 4 full points.
There is no better spot when betting college basketball totals than finding a spot where the line was already off by a couple of points, and then the public moves it in the wrong direction. This gap between the analytics and the betting lines opens up enormous value on a fade the public bet on the over, and that is just what I will do. Give me the over 136.5 tonight as Towson cruises past Delaware.
Northern Kentucky Norse at Purdue Fort Wayne Over 133
I get why the public has been on the under in this game, as the first time these teams played this year, the game was low scoring with a 59-49 final score. But I try to never overreact to a small sample size of data, and it doesn’t get much smaller than just a single game. And when I see how Purdue Fort Wayne has played since that last game, this feels like this game could end up being high scoring.
The Mastodons have won 10 straight games, and they are getting the job done by scoring the basketball at a high level. Fort Wayne has scored at least 70 points in each of those wins, and prior to the start of the Horizon League tournament, they had scored 81 points or more in 4 of their previous 5 games. I love nothing more than being on the other side of the public, and with how the Mastodons have been scoring the ball in the last month, this total feels like one that goes over.
Santa Clara Broncos at St. Mary’s Gaels Over 137.5
The St. Mary’s Gaels shocked the world last week when they handed the Gonzaga Bulldogs their first loss in WCC play this year. And it wasn’t just that the Gaels won the game, it was how they did it that was so impressive. St. Mary’s out hustled Gonzaga and ran them out of the gym, taking an early double-digit lead and never looking back. The Gaels will play their first game since beating on the Zags today, in the quarterfinals of the WCC tournament, against Santa Clara.
Time for the @WCChoops Tourney!
#17 Gaels take on Santa Clara TONIGHT at 8:30 pm on ESPN2 with a spot in the championship game on the line.
— Saint Mary's Hoops (@saintmaryshoops) March 7, 2022
Everyone likes to pretend that the WCC is some tiny league like the SWAC or the Southland, with no good teams besides Gonzaga, but the real sharps know that just isn’t the case, as the WCC is a very solid mid-major conference, and there are some good teams calling the West Coast Conference home not named GU. Both of these teams are strong, and while Santa Clara likely won’t be able to win this game, they can score the basketball and hang with the Gaels.
When these teams played just under a month ago, the final score ended at 149 points, which makes this line of 137.5 points seem awfully low. We know that St. Mary’s is going to get theirs, and as long as Santa Clara can hang with them, this game sails to the over tonight in Las Vegas.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Delaware Fightin’ Blue Hens at Towson Tigers Over 136.5 -110
- Northern Kentucky Norse at Purdue Fort Wayne Over 133 -110
- Santa Clara Broncos at St. Mary’s Gaels Over 137.5 -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
The daily dog parlay is a college basketball parlay play where all we take are money line underdogs. Parlaying underdogs is the best way to rack up jumbo payouts on small upfront investments. Want to win a jackpot payout? Then parlaying underdogs is for you!
Wright State Raiders (+100) at Cleveland State Vikings
This is a very evenly matched game. Wright State finished just a game back of Cleveland State in the regular season standings in the Horizon League, but with a couple of tiebreakers, they dropped down a few spots in the seeding. And even though the Raiders were the 4-seed in this bracket, you could make a fairly compelling case that they were actually the best team in this tournament.
— Wright State Men’s Basketball (@WSU_MBB) March 7, 2022
Kenpom has Wright State ranked as the highest-rated team left playing in the Horizon, coming it at 189th, and if you believe in Pomeroy’s algorithm, the Raiders should be favored in this game, not Cleveland State. There isn’t much to separate these teams, but with all things being equal, I always want to be on the side getting the juice, not laying it, in a game that could go either way. The Raiders are the value side of this matchup, and I will back them as I see Wright State avenging their early season loss to Cleveland State with the win!
Charleston Cougars at UNC Wilmington Seahawks (+105)
I guess I will just never understand all of the shade being thrown at the UNC Wilmington Seahawks this season. When I broke down the CAA bracket late last week, I noted that the Seahawks were being absurdly undervalued, as despite being the regular season league champions, and the number 1 overall seed in the tournament, the Seahawks were just the 5th betting favorite to win it. I was able to lock in my action on Wilmington at +1200 to win this tournament, and even with as little sense as that line made, this one makes even less, as there is no way that Charleston should be favored in this game!
Charleston stumbled to the finish line of the regular season, as they lost 5 of their last 8 games. They did impress with a big upset over Hofstra in their 1st round game, but that doesn’t change my mind that the Cougars should be the underdogs in this matchup with top-seeded UNC Wilmington. The Seahawks played Charleston twice this season and beat them both times, and while I am always a little bit leery of expecting a team to beat a team 3 times in 1 year, this is just an awful line that must be exploited.
— UNCW Basketball (@uncwmenshoops) March 7, 2022
Upsets happen in March. It is part of the game. But make no mistake, if Charleston wins this game, it is going to be an upset, no matter what the bookmakers might say. I love spots where I can get the more talented team as underdogs, and when the Seahawks win tonight and are again underdogs in the next round, I guess I will continue to scratch my head and wonder why and keep firing hard on Wilmington as they are going to win this tournament.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Wright State Raiders +100
- UNC Wilmington Seahawks +105
$100 Bet Pays $410
Point Spread Plays
In this final section, we are making plays on the point spread. A point spread bet is the most basic of all college hoops bets. In order to cash a bet on the point spread, your team must cover the number. Like a team as a big favorite? You might have to lay a bunch of points in order to win your bet. Think the underdog will lose, but keep the game close? Then snatching up the points is the side you’ll want to be on.
Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+3.5) at Georgia State Panthers
There is nothing more fun when sweating college basketball in March than seeing a team breakthrough with a conference tournament title and a trip to the Big Dance. Tonight, 1 of these teams will do just that, as the Ragin’ Cajuns of Layfette match up with the Panthers of Georgia State in the Sun Belt tournament finals! This wasn’t the matchup that many people expected, though, as Lafayette came into this tournament as the 8-seed and Georgia State was the 3-seed.
Sun Belt Championship ?
— Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns® Men's Basketball (@RaginCajunsMBB) March 7, 2022
But they don’t call in March Madness for nothing, and this is the matchup that we get tonight, despite not many people knowing who these teams are! We have mentioned several times today how hard it is for a team to beat a team 3 times in 1 year when they are evenly matched. Georgia State won both of the previous matchups with Lafayette, but both games were competitive, and I think it is the Ragin’s Cajun’s turn to have the variance break their way.
Georgia State has been red-hot, and nobody believes in the Ragin’ Cajuns, but that just makes me like them even more. I expect an all-out war tonight in this game and will snatch up the points and back the Ragin Cajuns as they win and enter the madness!
San Francisco Dons (+15.5) at Gonzaga Bulldogs
The nation’s top team, the Gonzaga Bulldogs, are hoping that they can lock up the number 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament with yet another WCC tournament title this week. GU got beat up by St. Mary’s in their regular season finale, and they would love nothing more than to return the favor and knock off the Gaels in the WCC finals. But before we get to see that rematch, the Zags must take care of business against a much better than almost everyone seems to think Dons squad.
GAME DAY! Zags + Dons in prime time?
— USF Men's Basketball (@USFDonsMBB) March 7, 2022
San Francisco is on the bubble right now, but the analytics love them, as Kenpom has them ranked at 21st in the nation. I would think that the Don’s win over BYU was enough to get the Dons into the dance, but if not, a win over Gonzaga would be more than enough! It is hard to ever bet against Gonzaga in the WCC, as they tend to thrash most of the competition, but if the Dons really are the 21st best team in the country, and they just might be, this line is far too inflated.
I expect San Francisco to hang with the Zags much of the evening before the Bulldogs pull away late for the win. GU has been too dominant in this tournament for too long to expect them to lose outright, but all we need to do to win our bet on the Dons is have this game be somewhat competitive, and that is how I see this one playing out as SF will do just enough to get us paid.
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles at North Dakota State Bison (+1)
What happened to Oral Roberts? The Golden Eagles were competing at the top of the Summit League in the 1st half of the season with a 7-1 record, but they fell apart down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4 games to plummet down the standings. But even when they were playing well, they couldn’t beat North Dakota State, as they lost to the Bison twice this season.
????? ?? ?????? ?????? ?
?????? ?????? ??????????
?: Oral Roberts
?: Sioux Falls, SD
?️: Denny Sanford Premier Center
?: Midco Sports | ESPN+
?: @Bison1660 | @1079fox
?️: https://t.co/TJiDCjhylo pic.twitter.com/X080VDwWsV
— NDSU Basketball (@NDSUmbb) March 7, 2022
This is another line that I just don’t understand, as the Bison have been on the exact opposite trend, as they caught fire in the 2nd half of league play, finishing the year with a 10-2 record in their final 12 games. The fact that I can get the Bison as underdogs is absurd. I looked at taking North Dakota on the money line, but the line wasn’t that attractive, so I decided to grab the point instead, but I fully expect the Bison to win this game. Give me North Dakota State tonight as they beat the Golden Eagles for the 3rd time this season!
Point Spread Plays Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (+3.5) -110
- San Francisco Dons (+15.5) -110
- North Dakota State Bison (+1) -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the college basketball parlay action for today! Betting on NCAA Men’s College Hoops can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! While parlays are the name of the game, we also encourage you to make any of these plays as straight bets as well, as all of these college basketball parlay picks are high value. Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s NCAA Men’s Basketball page, betting page, where our team of expert handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free college hoops picks each and every day!