We are absolutely unconscious right now when it comes to hitting money line underdogs. Yesterday, for the 3rd day in a row, we went undefeated on underdog plays and cashed yet another parlay of the day ticket. Yesterday’s winners came on Villanova (+100) and LSU (+125) and paid out a hefty $450 bucks.
Since the start of the week, we are a smoking hot 7-1 outright on underdog plays. A lot of handicappers will send you their “lock” plays on a bunch of -2000 favorites, but it takes a true pro to take a stand on underdogs and still produce winners consistently day in and day out. That is the difference between TheSportsGeek and everyone else.
— LSU Basketball (@LSUBasketball) January 13, 2022
While the dogs have been nice, we have also been killing the game on our money line, totals, and spread plays as well, running up a combined 7-4 record yesterday. We picked up money line winners Notre Dame (-145) and Washington (-120), totals winners on Minnesota/Michigan State over 138.5 and TCU/K-State under 136, and spread winners on Fordham (+3) and Boston College (-1.5) on what was a great day betting college hoops.
In the world of sports betting, it is always what have you done for me lately, and with that, we will get right back to the grind today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Magic Parlay
Our money line magic parlay is a parlay that is made up of exclusively money line bets. Unlike point spread plays where a team has to win by a certain amount of points to win your bet, on a money line play, all your team has to do is win the game to get you paid. To make up for the fact that some teams are favorites and others are underdogs, you are going to either lay odds when betting on favorites or be paid out at odds for your bet if you take the underdog.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-320)
I’m not sure that there is a team in the country that has had a better week than the Red Raiders of Texas Tech. On Saturday, the Red Raiders knocked off Kansas, and then on Tuesday, they followed it up by handing the Baylor Bears their first loss of the season, in Waco, on the road no less. Texas Tech will look to stay hot tonight as they welcome the Oklahoma State Cowboys to town for a Big 12 conference game.
There are very few soft games in the Big 12, as the league is loaded from top to bottom, but if there were such a thing as a soft matchup, it would be playing the Cowboys at home. No disrespect to OK State, they are actually a talented team that would compete in most leagues, but the Big 12 is not most leagues, and in what I see as the top conference in the country, the Cowboys are in the bottom half of the standings and would need to overachieve to pick up an at-large bid into the NCAA tournament.
Right back at it! pic.twitter.com/jibvqrhcoW
— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) January 13, 2022
The Cowboys had to play in Morgantown in their last game and came up 10 points short of the Mountaineers, and I see this game playing out in a similar fashion tonight in Lubbock. I am a bit worried about a letdown game for Texas Tech, so instead of laying a bunch of points and sweating out a cover, I will back the Red Raiders on the money line and cash our bet without too much drama.
If Texas Tech can win tonight and finish out the week with a road win at K State on Saturday, another game where they will be favored, you can expect the Red Raiders to shoot up the rankings, potentially even breaking into the top-10 nationally. That all starts tonight with the home floor victory over Oklahoma State.
Georgia State Panthers at South Alabama Jaguars (-120)
The Georgia State Panthers will head out on the road tonight as they are in Mobile to play the Jaguars of South Alabama in a Sun Belt Conference game. The Sun Belt is one of the most competitive leagues in the country as they have a handful of teams competing for first place, and while neither of these teams have yet to win a conference game, the winner of this game is going to be in solid shape to put a run together and get back in contention.
Georgia State has played a very soft schedule, which makes their already mediocre 6-6 record look even worse. 3 of the Panthers 6 wins came against D2 teams, and their best win of the season came against 217th ranked Northeastern. That doesn’t bode well for their chances of pulling off the upset tonight against 184th ranked South Alabama.
— South Alabama Men's Basketball (@WeAreSouth_MBB) January 13, 2022
The Jaguars had an impressive start to their season, as they started out the year going 9-2, with both of their losses coming to good teams in true road games. But the Jags have stumbled a bit recently, dropping 3 of their last 4 games, including going 0-2 in conference play.
On paper, Alabama State shouldn’t have too much trouble dispatching Georgia State, but you could have said the same thing about their last game as well when they lost to Appalachian State as home favorites. South Alabama is going to have to play better tonight than they have in their last couple of games, but that is exactly what I see happening as the Jaguars take care of business and win at home.
Indiana Hoosiers at Iowa Hawkeyes (-200)
For our next play, we head to the Big 10, for a conference game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and Indiana Hoosiers. The Big 10 is always one of the top leagues in the country, and this year is no different as the conference could get as many as 8 teams into the NCAA tournament this year. This matchup between the Hoosiers and the Hawkeyes is a big one, as both of these teams are sitting right at the cutline for the Big Dance, and whichever team wins this game is going to have a nice feather in their cap on Selection Sunday.
Hawkeyes ↔ Hoosiers tonight inside Carver-Hawkeye Arena
— Iowa Men’s Basketball (@IowaHoops) January 13, 2022
When you see that the Hawkeyes are just 1-3 in conference play, it is easy to say that they are underperforming, but a closer look shows us that those 3 losses came to Purdue, Illinois, and Wisconsin, all very good teams that are at or near the top of the Big 10 standings. While there is certainly no shame in losing to elite teams, if you want to survive in the Big 10, you are going to have to find ways to beat some very good teams.
I am not ready to say that Indiana is a very good team, but they are at least a pretty good team, and they are sure to give the Hawkeyes a run for their money tonight at Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The Hoosiers have an elite record at 12-3, but 11 of those 12 wins have come at home, and all 3 of their losses have come in true road games. The Big 10 is a home team-dominated league, and I will make my play on Iowa in this one. If this game were being played in Bloomington, I am sure I would be on the other side, but it’s not, it’s in Iowa City, and for that reason, I see the Hawkeyes pulling away late and winning the game.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Texas Tech Red Raiders -320
- South Alabama Jaguars -120
- Iowa Hawkeyes -200
$100 Bet Pays $361
Game Total Parlay
Game total plays are commonly referred to as over/under bets because you are betting over or under the posted point total for a game. The game total is calculated by adding up the final scores of both teams. If that total score adds up to more than the total, the over bets win. If the total score adds up to under that total, bets on the under win. If the total score lands exactly on the posted total, all bets push.
UTEP Miners at Charlotte 49ers Over 135.5
We have been smashing totals in the last several weeks, connecting on north of 80% of our plays. The strategy has been a simple one. Look for lines that started out wrong and moved even further in the wrong direction based on public action, and then bet the other way. It is a standard fade the public strategy, and it has been working really well recently.
This line opened up at 138.5 points, which was already too low according to Kenpom, as Pomeroy has the game finishing at 141 points. There was always going to be value on the over, but after watching the public bet this game all of the way down to 135.5 points, I absolutely love a play on the over. If you ever get the chance to position yourself on the side of the data rather than the side of the betting public, you are going to want to take advantage of it every time. That is what we have here, and I will hammer on the over.
Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats Over 142.5
The Warhawks of Louisiana Monroe are an over hitting machine this year as they have a unique combination of an awful defense, an efficient offense, and a fast pace. We consistently see the Warhawk’s totals going over the 150-point mark, and that is what I see happening again tonight against Texas State.
Back in Strahan tonight!
— Texas State MBB (@TXStateMBB) January 13, 2022
Kenpom has this game coming in at 148 points, and that 7.5 gap is an enormous one. The Bobcats tend to play a slow pace on offense, which explains why this number has been dropping all morning, but I don’t see that being the case tonight, as they are going to get a lot of quick open looks against this dreadfully porous Warhawks defense. Take the over and get paid.
Rice Owls at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Over 149.5
The Rice Owls play the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers tonight in a Conference USA game from E.A. Diddle Arena in Bowling Green, Kentucky. This game has high scoring written all over it as both of these teams are in the top-100 nationally in terms of offensive efficiency, and both teams play at a fast pace. Rice has scored 80 or more points in a game 8 times already this season, and the Hilltoppers are just as good at racking up gaudy point totals as they have scored at least 80 points 7 times.
This feels like a game that could end with one or both of these teams approaching the century mark, and it should coast to the over without much of a sweat. We talked yesterday about understanding pace and efficiency, and in a game where both teams play fast, and both teams score the ball efficiently, we are bound to see a lot of points hit the board. Follow the data and take the over.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- UTEP Miners at Charlotte 49ers Over 135.5 -110
- Louisiana Monroe Warhawks at Texas State Bobcats Over 142.5 -110
- Rice Owls at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers Over 149.5 -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
The daily dog parlay is a play where all we take are money line underdogs. Parlaying underdogs is the best way to rack up jumbo payouts on small upfront investments. Want to win a jackpot payout? Then parlaying underdogs is for you!
Butler Bulldogs at Georgetown Hoyas (+105)
If you read my parlay of the day picks regularly, you will know that I love hating on the betting public. The term a person is smart, but people are stupid comes to mind when I see some of these inexplicable line moves. The books opened up this line with Georgetown laying (-2), which seemed like a sharp number. It is a league game between similarly ranked teams with the home team as small favorites. Yeah, it checked out.
But then the public got ahold of it, and they have been backing the Bulldogs in droves and have moved this line hard towards Butler. I just don’t see what the public likes in Butler, as the Bulldogs are down this year, and aren’t playing well right now, having lost 3 of their last 4 games. I mean, I get it, Georgetown stinks too, but the Hoyas aren’t going to just lay down at home in a winnable game.
Thursday night hoops!
— Georgetown Hoops (@GeorgetownHoops) January 13, 2022
The Hoyas have lost their last 2 home games to TCU and Marquette, but there is a fairly significant gap in talent between those teams and this Butler squad. My 2 favorite things when betting college basketball are taking home dogs in conference play and fading the betting public, and I get to do both of those with a play on the Hoyas. Give me Georgetown.
Detroit Mercy Titans (+105) at Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
The Titans of Detroit Mercy are just happy to be back on the floor after playing just 1 game in the last month due to COVID-19 related issues inside the program. The Titans played last week after the long layoff and looked fantastic, as they dominated Milwaukee, blowing them out by 25 points, and they are looking to stay hot tonight at Purdue Fort Wayne in a Horizon League game. Detroit Mercy head coach Mike Davis has a long history of success, having taken Indiana, UAB, and Texas Southern to the NCAA tournament, and he brought his play anybody, anywhere, attitude with him to Detroit.
The Titans played their first 9 games of the year on the road, with true road games against power programs like Mississippi State and Louisville. The Titans didn’t win any of those games, but they were competitive in all of them, and they were battle-tested as they hit conference play, and it has shown, as they are 3-0 in Horizon League play.
𝙂𝙖𝙢𝙚𝙙𝙖𝙮! Time to get back to work! #HLMBB
🕖 | 7 PM
🏟️ | Allen County War Memorial Coliseum
💻 | ESPN+ (https://t.co/6owfesbETp)
📈 | Live Stats (https://t.co/SNMIoLOFCD)
📻 | @FaithTalkWLQV
✍️ | Game Notes (https://t.co/h7XyppogQM)#DetroitsCollegeTeam | ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/cbuWTwFO9x
— Detroit Mercy MBB (@DetroitMBB) January 13, 2022
For Purdue Fort Wayne, the Mastodons have been all over the place this season. They don’t have a single win over the national top-200, and they have ugly losses to Western Michigan and SIU Edwardsville that have me questioning whether or not this team is going to be able to compete at the top of the Horizon League this season.
Purdue’s best win of the year came over 226th ranked Northern Kentucky at home, and while I very rarely take the road team in these small conference league games, I smell upset tonight in Fort Wayne. We are sure to sweat this game out down to the final few possessions, but I like what Mike Davis is doing at Detroit, and I expect them to find a way to pull off the upset tonight.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Georgetown Hoyas +105
- Detroit Mercy Titans +105
$100 Bet Pays $421
Point Spread Plays
In this final section, we are making plays on the point spread. A point spread bet is the most basic of all college hoops bets. In order to cash a bet on the point spread, your team must cover the number. Like a team as a big favorite? You might have to lay a bunch of points in order to win your bet. Think the underdog will lose, but keep the game close? Then snatching up the points is the side you’ll want to be on.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Wiscosnin Badgers (-3)
We head back to the Big 10 for our next play, where the Ohio State Buckeyes play against the Wisconsin Badgers. It is starting to look like the Wisconsin Badgers were one of the most underrated teams in the nation, as they came into this season expecting to finish near the middle of the pack in the Big 10, and instead, they are rampaging through the conference with a 4-1 record.
The Badgers have one of the best overall resumes in the country with wins over Houston, Purdue, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Indiana, Texas A&M, Iowa, and Maryland. Most teams would be ecstatic to have half of the Badgers quality wins, and with Ohio State coming to town, they have another chance to add a very good team to their hit list.
Top-25 showdown in Madison! 💯 pic.twitter.com/Cyxs85XQtc
— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) January 13, 2022
Ohio State beat Wisconsin earlier this year at home, but now that the season series has shifted to Madison, I see the Badgers getting their revenge. The Buckeyes have been unbeatable in Columbus, literally, with an undefeated 7-0 record, but they are 0-2 in true road games and just 1-3 in road and neutral floor games. This line opened up at Wisconsin (-2.5) and shifted slightly, but I won’t let that extra half of a point scare me away from taking what I see as a high-value play on Wisconsin.
Colgate Raiders at Navy Midshipmen (-1.5)
This is another play where I am just taking advantage of a bad line move. Navy opened up as -6-point home floor favorites, which made sense as Kenpom has the Midshipmen winning the game 74-68. But the public certainly hasn’t seen it that way as they have been all over Colgate, dropping this game to nearly even money in the early morning betting markets. What is the public seeing in Colgate that I am missing?
Big game on The Yard tonight‼️‼️
— Navy Basketball (@NavyBasketball) January 13, 2022
The Raiders are 5-10 on the year, and they haven’t beaten a team inside of the national top-250 since November! And now, all of the sudden, they are going to go on the road in a conference game and win? Navy is the class of the Patriot League this season, and while the Raiders rank out as their closest competition, I don’t see these teams as being on the same level.
Navy is 4-0 in league play, and they have a great overall record at 11-4, that includes a true road win in Charlottesville, over the Virginia Cavaliers, in one of the hardest places in the country for opposing teams to win. A win over Colgate today would keep the Midshipmen in the driver’s seat in the Patriot League, and I see them taking care of business at home. Sometimes I can’t, for the life of me, understand some of these line moves, but just because I don’t fully understand it doesn’t mean I can’t take advantage of it and get paid. Give me Navy.
Stanford Cardinal (+7.5) at Washington State Cougars
I mentioned earlier that no team has had a better week than the Texas Tech Red Raiders have, and while I do think that is true, the Stanford Cardinal deserve some recognition for what they have done this week as well. Stanford hadn’t played in over 2 weeks, making their win over then-undefeated USC that much more impressive. We haven’t gotten to see a ton of the Cardinal as they missed a big chunk of their season, but what we have seen from Jerod Haase’s team has been solid.
Wins over USC, Wyoming, and Oregon are all resume builders, and the losses to Baylor and Texas aren’t bad ones. I would like to see a little more consistency out of the Cardinal before I declare them an NCAA tournament worthy team, but this team does have a lot of upside, and if they can pull off a huge upset victory tonight on the road against the Washington State Cougars, they will officially have the rest of the PAC-12 on notice.
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 12, 2022
The top of the PAC-12 is getting a lot of love, as USC, UCLA, and Arizona were all in the top-10 of the most recent AP Poll. But the 2nd tier of teams in the PAC-12 is up in the air, as nobody really knows which teams are going to step up and make a push for an NCAA tournament bid by the end of the year. Teams like WAZZU and Stanford could absolutely get hot and get in contention, making this game a big one for both teams.
The analytics like the Cougars more than I do, as I am underwhelmed by Washington State’s resume right now. They don’t have any wins over the top-100, and they have home or semi-home losses to Eastern Washington, USC, South Dakota State, New Mexico State, and Boise State. That tells me that the Cougars are going to be on upset alert tonight at home, as they just haven’t done a good enough job winning on their own floor.
Thursday matinee in Pullman 🚨
— Stanford Men's Basketball (@StanfordMBB) January 13, 2022
Stanford has to avoid the potential letdown game after their big win on Tuesday night, and as long as they play like they did in that game, we aren’t going to have to sweat this cover much at all, and an outright victory is absolutely a possibility. I will snatch up the (+7.5) points and expect a tightly contested game that comes down to the wire tonight in Pullman.
Point Spread Plays Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Wiscosnin Badgers (-3) -110
- Navy Midshipmen (-1.5) -110
- Stanford Cardinal (+7.5) -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on NCAA Men’s College Hoops can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s NCAA Men’s Basketball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free college hoops picks each and every day!