We took a little break over the weekend to watch the NFL playoffs, but with the new week and no football to distract us, we are looking to get right back to where we were last week when we were on fire! Last week, we hit a total of 7 parlays in 7 days and our straight bet action winning percentage was north of 70%. Today, despite it being mid-week, we actually have a loaded slate of games on tap.
New AP Poll! ?
— NCAA March Madness (@MarchMadnessMBB) January 17, 2022
Highlight games on the day include Kansas at Oklahoma, Baylor at West Virginia, Iowa State at Texas Tech, and Duke at Florida State. As we inch close to March Madness, these mid-season conference games are huge when it comes to building a resume worthy of an at-large bid on Selection Sunday, and with so much on the line for all of these teams, it only makes the action that much better! Without further delay, we will jump right into it, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Magic Parlay
Our money line magic parlay is a parlay that is made up of exclusively money line bets. Unlike point spread plays where a team has to win by a certain amount of points to win your bet, on a money line play, all your team has to do is win the game to get you paid. To make up for the fact that some teams are favorites and others are underdogs, you are going to either lay odds when betting on favorites or be paid out at odds for your bet if you take the underdog.
Iona Gaels (-145) at Monmouth Hawks
I love me some Rick Pitino, and he has turned around this Iona program in a hurry in his short stint at the helm of the Gaels. Pitino took the Gaels dancing last year in his first year coaching at Iona, and this year, he has them looking like a potential at-large bid worthy team, as they are ranked well inside the top-100 nationally, and they are running away with the MAAC regular season title with a 6-0 league record. The Gaels have won 8 of their last 9 games overall, and a win tonight on the road at Monmouth would all but lock up the MAAC title for Pitino and company, as the Hawks are seen as their closest competition in the conference.
???????: Tough road match vs. a rival. Tune in.
— Iona Men’s Basketball (@IonaGaelsMBB) January 18, 2022
Monmouth is the only team in the MAAC that has a talent level that is anywhere close to the Gaels, but after a 2-0 start to conference play, the Hawks have lost back-to-back games in league play and 3 straight overall. While the Hawks do have a pair of top-100 wins this season, coming over Towson and Cincinnati, I just don’t think they are going to be any match for the Gaels tonight, even at home.
Pitino has been here too many times and has too long of a track record of success to think that he is going to lose this game, when he knows what it would mean to the Gaels conference title ambitions. Expect a hard-fought game where the Gaels pull away late for a big road victory.
Kansas Jayhawks (-155) at Oklahoma Sooners
We have a showdown tonight from Norman as the Oklahoma Sooners welcome the Kansas Jayhawks to town for a Big 12 battle. The Sooners are reeling as after their red-hot 11-2 start to the season, they have dropped 3 of their last 4 games, with losses to Baylor, Texas, and TCU. The Sooners have shown that they can compete with, and beat, some of the top teams in the nation, with wins over UCF, Florida, Arkansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State but losses to Butler and Utah State tells me that if they aren’t at their best, they can lose to inferior competition. If the Sooners want any shot at beating Kansas tonight, they will have to play their best game of the season.
The Jayhawks, on the other hand, are amongst the top teams in the nation, and they are playing well right now, with wins in 10 of their last 11 games. The only concern that I have about backing the Jayhawks in this game is their lack of true road victories. Kansas has only played 2 road games this season, and they have a 1-1 record to show for it.
Right back to it ?
? Kansas at Oklahoma
? Norman, Okla.
⏰ 6 pm CT
? ESPN pic.twitter.com/bppCNJz577
— Kansas Men’s Basketball (@KUHoops) January 18, 2022
The Jayhawk’s lack of road wins says a lot more about their scheduling than it does their ability to win in hostile territory, as they just haven’t played enough road games to have a strong opinion on their ability to win on the road. The road wins are coming sooner rather than later (see what I did there), and I see the Jayhawks taking care of business tonight in Norman, against a good, but not great, Oklahoma Sooners squad.
Ohio Bobcats (-115) at Miami Ohio RedHawks
For our next pick, we will head to the MAC for a league game between the Ohio Bobcats and the Miami Ohio RedHawks. Ohio is competing with Toledo at the top of the league, and they hold a slight advantage over the Rockets with an undefeated 4-0 record. Winning on the road in the MAC is what is going to set these teams apart from each other, and that makes this game a big one for the Bobcats. Ohio is 4-2 in true road games this season, with their only losses coming at Kentucky and at LSU, a couple of the best teams in the nation.
Back to business today?
— Ohio Men’s Basketball (@OhioMBasketball) January 18, 2022
You have to commend the RedHawks of Miami Ohio, for going out and scheduling tough in the non-conference, with a slew of road games on their schedule. But all of those tough games have led to a bad record for Miami, as they are just 8-7 on the year.
And even when they have gotten to play at home, they haven’t done a very good job of protecting their own floor, with home losses to Cincinnati, Toledo, and a brutally bad loss to Bellarmine. Of their 8 wins, 6 of them have come to teams ranked outside of the top-250 nationally, and I just don’t see any way that they can beat this solid Ohio team, even at home. Fading home teams in league play is always a risky proposition, but I am riding on the Bobcats in this one.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Iona Gaels -145
- Kansas Jayhawks -155
- Ohio Bobcats -115
$100 Bet Pays $520
Game Total Parlay
Game total plays are commonly referred to as over/under bets because you are betting over or under the posted point total for a game. The game total is calculated by adding up the final scores of both teams. If that total score adds up to more than the total, the over bets win. If the total score adds up to under that total, bets on the under win. If the total score lands exactly on the posted total, all bets push.
North Alabama Lions at Bellarmine Knights Under 141.5
We have been smoking hot on our totals plays this season, as all we do is look to take advantage of improper line moves and bet the other way. This fade the public strategy has been getting us paid, and I see no reason to change my strategy, as if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?
This line opened up at 135.5 points, and with Kenpom having the game finishing at 134 points, you could argue it was already a bit too high. But the public certainly hasn’t seen it that way, as they have been hammering the over, driving this total all of the way up to where it stands now at 141.5 points. I study these line moves like the gospel, and a 7-point gap between what the data is telling us and the betting line, is nearly unheard of. I won’t just bet the under, I will hammer it.
Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders Under 130.5
With smaller conference games like the one we just talked about between Bellarmine and North Alabama, it doesn’t take that much money to move a line. Remember, the books only adjust these lines to even out their action on both sides of the play, to limit their exposure, and when you have games that don’t attract much action, it doesn’t take much to get heavy on one side. But that isn’t the case with a blockbuster game like this one between Texas Tech and Iowa State, as millions will likely be wagered on this game, and to see the line move so sharply, is fairly rare.
— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) January 18, 2022
Kenpom has this game at 122 points, and the opening line reflects that, as this number opened at 124. But the public loves to bet the over, and they have been all over it in this one, driving the number way up! I am not sure I can remember the last time that a high-profile game like this one had such a sharp line move and I absolutely love that I can bet the under in what should be a defensive showdown between teams that are both in the top-4 in the nation in defensive efficiency. Not only are both of these teams elite on defense, they both play slow tempos as well, making a play on the under a slam dunk.
Loyola-Chicago Ramblers at Evansville Purple Aces Over 123
Our final totals play comes to us from Evansville, where the Purple Aces host the Ramblers of Loyola-Chicago. This is another line move play, and at least with this one, I can kinda sorta understand what the public was thinking when they bet the line down from 126.5 points to where it stands now at 123.
Both of these teams play crazy slow on offense and defense, and this is sure to be a plodding halfcourt-focused contest. But where the public got it wrong was that they focused too much on the Rambler’s top-50 defensive unit and ignored the fact that the Ramblers also play some of the most efficient offense in the nation as well. Kenpom has this one at 128 points, and I see the Ramblers pouring it on late and pushing this total to the over with a road win at Evansville.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- North Alabama Lions at Bellarmine Knights Under 141.5 -110
- Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders Under 130.5 -110
- Loyola-Chicago Ramblers at Evansville Purple Aces Over 123 -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
The daily dog parlay is a play where all we take are money line underdogs. Parlaying underdogs is the best way to rack up jumbo payouts on small upfront investments. Want to win a jackpot payout? Then parlaying underdogs is for you!
Kent State Golden Flashes at Eastern Michigan Eagles (+145)
If you are a regular reader of my parlay of the day picks, you will know that I love home dogs in league play. We have been crushing on underdogs in the last several weeks, and the vast majority of the winning plays have been home dogs in conference play.
We will take a stand on another home dog today as the Kent State Golden Flashes play at the Eastern Michigan Eagles. On paper, Kent State is the more talented team, but the Golden Flashes just haven’t played quality basketball with an 8-8 record and a resume dotted with bad losses. On the road this season, Kent State is just 1-3, with their lone win coming at Ball State.
This should be fun.?
?️Gervin GameAbove Center
Program?https://t.co/xQC5Z1SE8C#EMUEagles | #TimEtoSoar pic.twitter.com/lukqh2D91n
— Eastern Michigan Men's Basketball (@EMU_MBB) January 18, 2022
I am not sure that Eastern Michigan is any good this season, and I am leaning towards them being mediocre at best, but at home, they are decent. The Eagles are 6-1 at home this season, with wins over Illinois State, Western Illinois, and Niagara, teams that all rate out similarly to Kent State. We are going to need the ball to bounce our way late to cash this ticket, but I am on the home team in this one.
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles at Stetson Hatters (+135)
I am on the fence here, is the Hatters the best name in college basketball or the worst? On the one hand, you have a terrible name that nobody really understands, but on the other hand, at least it’s original and not another generic animal name, like, say, the Eagles, for instance. As far as the game goes, I am not on the fence at all, as I smell upset tonight in DeLand.
It’s a GreenOut tonight vs FGCU! pic.twitter.com/RG6OMMyEyg
— Stetson MBB? (@StetsonMBB) January 18, 2022
Neither of these teams are very good, and this game just boils down to a home/away splits play. The Eagles are 11-7 on the year, but of their 11 wins, only 2 of them have come on the road, with both wins coming over teams ranked outside of the top-300. 5 of their losses have come in true road games, including some nasty losses to bad teams like FIU, Canisius, Jacksonville, and Kennesaw State.
For the Hatters, they don’t win very often, but when they do, it is nearly always at home, as 5 of their 7 wins have come at the Edmunds Center. This play is more a fade of the Eagles, as they have lost 4 of their last 5 games, than a play on the Hatters, so give me the home team!
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- Eastern Michigan Eagles +145
- Stetson Hatters +135
$100 Bet Pays $576
Point Spread Plays
In this final section, we are making plays on the point spread. A point spread bet is the most basic of all college hoops bets. In order to cash a bet on the point spread, your team must cover the number. Like a team as a big favorite? You might have to lay a bunch of points in order to win your bet. Think the underdog will lose, but keep the game close? Then snatching up the points is the side you’ll want to be on.
Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers (+6.5)
Did somebody say home dog in league play? The West Virginia Mountaineers are looking for their biggest win of the year as the defending national champion Baylor Bears come to town, looking to snap their 2-game losing streak. Baylor was looking nearly unbeatable until they went 0-2 last week, with home floor losses to both Oklahoma State and Texas Tech.
?Game Day ? No. 5 Baylor
— WVU Men's Basketball (@WVUhoops) January 18, 2022
This game is going to be very interesting as we are going to see if the Bear’s struggles were short-lived or if they were exposed and more losses are coming. If Baylor losses and extend their losing streak to 3 straight games, you are going to see Scott Drew sound the alarm bells, as this is not the time of the year that you want to fall apart.
Personally, I still think that Baylor is a Final Four caliber team, and that win or lose tonight, the Bears are a team that needs to be feared, but this line does seem inflated. Bob Huggins rarely ever losses in Morgantown, and there might not be a harder place in the country to win than on the road than at West Virginia. The Mountaineers are a perfect 10-0 at home this season, with wins over top-100 teams Oakland, UCONN, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State. My gut tells me that Baylor finds a way to stop the bleeding and wins this game, but to be able to get the Mountaineers with this many points on their home floor, shows outrageous value.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Miami Hurricanes (+2.5)
The ACC has been completely ignored by the mainstream media this season, as the Duke Blue Devils have been the once-mighty league’s sole team ranked in the top-25 nearly all season long. But if you ask me, both of these teams deserve national recognition as well, and have 2nd-weekend upside in the NCAA tournament.
Miami had won 9 straight games, including a big win over Duke, and had they not lost to Florida State in their last game, a game that they led with 0.8 seconds left on the clock, they would almost for sure be in the top-25 this week. A win over North Carolina could be enough to get them mentioned amongst the nation’s top teams, but they are going to have their hands full, as the Tar Heels are criminally underrated as well.
Canes ? Carolina
7PM at the Watsco Center
— Canes Hoops (@CanesHoops) January 18, 2022
North Carolina is lurking just outside of the top-25 too, and they are a 2-0 week away from cracking the rankings. The Tar Heels have 4 losses on the year, with losses to Purdue, Tennessee, and Kentucky, all teams that have been ranked in the top-10 this season, and a fluky loss to a better than most people seem to think Notre Dame Fighting Irish team. This game is going to be tightly contested and is nearly certain to come down to the final few possessions to decide a winner. I will snatch up the points as an insurance policy in case the ball doesn’t bounce our way late in what should be a thriller.
Wisconsin Badgers (-2) at Northwestern Wildcats
We have been hammering the home teams today, but for our final play, I will switch gears and make a play that I rarely ever make, as I back a road team in Big 10 play. If you read my weekly power rankings, you will know that I am higher on Wisconsin than just about everybody else, as I have the Badgers as the 3rd best team in the country right now. The Badgers are 14-2, and they just might have the best collection of wins of any team in the nation, with wins over Texas A&M, Houston, Saint Mary’s, Marquette, Indiana, Purdue, Iowa, Maryland, and Ohio State.
Bucky is back in action tonight! ? pic.twitter.com/a36UQTBhEB
— Wisconsin Basketball (@BadgerMBB) January 18, 2022
The wins over the Boilermakers and the Terrapins both came in true road games in conference play, and that gives me confidence that the Badgers can win in a tough environment tonight against Northwestern. Life in the Big 10 can be brutal, and there are going to be solid teams that just don’t have enough talent to truly compete. This year, the Wildcats are one of those teams, as they are just 2-4 in Big 10 play.
Interestingly enough, Northwestern is 0-3 at home in conference play with home losses to Michigan State, Penn State, and Maryland, and for my money, the Badgers are better than all of those teams that we’re able to win in Welsh-Ryan Arena. I hate fading home teams in the Big 10, but the Badgers are too good not to want a piece of right now.
Point Spread Plays Parlay
- Teams Odds
- West Virginia Mountaineers (+6.5) -110
- Miami Hurricanes (+2.5) -110
- Wisconsin Badgers (-2) -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on NCAA Men’s College Hoops can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s NCAA Men’s Basketball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free college hoops picks each and every day!