Mama said there would be days like this… Despite finding money line winners on Auburn (-475), Seton Hall (-165), Texas A&M (-240), and Rutgers (+160), and totals wins on Eastern Michigan/Western Michigan over 134 and Kentucky/LSU under 143.5, we came up just 1 game short on 3 of our parlay of the day plays yesterday. It was a frustrating way to lose, as we were oh so close to hitting everything.
The heartbreaker of the day came to us from Muncie, Indiana, where the Cardinals of Ball State held a 1-point lead over Kent State with just seconds left on the clock. All we needed was for the Cardinals to win outright, at home, to cash our all-underdog parlay for a juicy $559 payout. But alas, it wasn’t meant to be, as the Golden Flashes scored on a contested layup to take the lead with 9 seconds left in the game, and when the Cardinals couldn’t answer on the other end of the floor, our big win was snatched away.
— Rutgers Basketball ? (@RutgersMBB) January 5, 2022
What can you do, we had a shot to scoop, and the variance got us. Today, there are over 60 games scheduled, giving us plenty of games to find value. With that, let’s jump right into it, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Magic Parlay
Our money line magic parlay is a parlay that is made up of exclusively money line bets. Unlike point spread plays where a team has to win by a certain amount of points to win your bet, on a money line play, all your team has to do is win the game to get you paid. To make up for the fact that some teams are favorites and others are underdogs, you are going to either lay odds when betting on favorites or be paid out at odds for your bet if you take the underdog.
North Carolina Tar Heels (-130) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
We talked yesterday about how down the ACC is this year, with the Duke Blue Devils being the only team currently ranked in the top-25 nationally from the once-mighty league. But that could all change this week, as a win over Notre Dame on the road could be enough to get the North Carolina Tar Heels into the top-25. The Heels are 10-3, and while they don’t have many quality victories on the year, all 3 of their losses came to elite teams in Tennessee, Purdue, and Kentucky.
This will already be North Carolina’s 3rd road game in ACC play, and they are looking to add a win over the Fighting Irish to their resume to go along with wins over Georgia Tech and Boston College. Neither of those games were overly competitive as the Tar Heels won by an average of 21.5 points, telling me that this team can play well on other team’s floors.
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— Carolina Basketball (@UNC_Basketball) January 5, 2022
For Mike Brey’s squad, the Irish haven’t played very well to start the season, and the losses are really starting to pile up. Notre Dame is just 7-5, and of their 7 wins, 5 of them have come over teams ranked outside of the top-250 nationally. The Irish did shock the Kentucky Wildcats a month ago, and they have won 4 out of their last 5 games, so Brey seems to have things moving in the right direction, but at the end of the day, I see the Tar Heels as the far superior team. Expect a tightly contested game throughout, but when all of the smoke clears tonight in South Bend, the Tar Heels are going to have their hands raised with the win.
UNC Ashville Bulldogs at Campbell Camels (-280)
The UNC Ashville Bulldogs take their show on the road today as they kick off conference play in the Big South at Campbell. Campbell is expected to compete with Garnder-Webb, Winthrop, and Longwood for the Big South regular season title, and while Ashville isn’t terrible, the Bulldogs aren’t a team that has a realistic shot at winning the league and playing in the NCAA tournament.
UNC has played 5 true road games this season, and they have a 1-4 record to show for it, with the lone road win coming over 295th ranked Western Carolina. In their last road game, the Bulldogs lost to a putrid Tennessee-Martin team, and if they can even keep this game competitive, it will be a moral victory for UNC. Campbell lost 3 out of their last 4 games before seeing game cancelations cost them a couple of weeks of their season, and that short skid is what is keeping this line so tight. Home teams in league play are always going to play better than most people expect, and I see the Camels winning this game without too much of a fight.
Missouri State Bears (-115) at Bradley Braves
I love what Missouri State head coach Dana Ford is doing in Springfield, as he has seen his Kenpom ranking rise in each of his 4 seasons at the helm, and the Bears could absolutely give conference kingpin Loyola-Chicago a run for their money for the Missouri Valley Conference title this year. The Bears have a couple of bad losses that they wish they could get back, but the win over Drake in their last game was a huge one, and I see the Bears as a force in the MVC this season. The Bears get another tough test today with a road game at Bradley.
— Missouri State Basketball (@MSUBearsHoops) January 5, 2022
After winning 20+ games 3 years in a row, including a trip to the NCAA tournament, things have gone south for the Braves recently, as they went just 12-16 last season, and this year, they are a disappointing 7-7. Most of their losses have come away from home, with the exception of the home opener loss to Howard, but when a team losses to schools like Indiana State, Duquesne, and Brown, it is hard to trust them to beat a quality opponent, even on their home court. They are going to have to earn this one, but I like Missouri State to win tonight on the road as small favorites.
Money Line Magic Parlay
- Teams Odds
- North Carolina Tar Heels -130
- Campbell Camels -280
- Missouri State Bears -115
$100 Bet Pays $449
Game Total Parlay
Game total plays are commonly referred to as over/under bets because you are betting over or under the posted point total for a game. The game total is calculated by adding up the final scores of both teams. If that total score adds up to more than the total, the over bets win. If the total score adds up to under that total, bets on the under win. If the total score lands exactly on the posted total, all bets push.
VCU Rams at Dayton Flyers Under 125.5
The VCU Rams have prided themselves on defense going all of the way back to Shaka Smart’s tenure as head coach, and this year’s team might be the best defensive unit they have ever had in Richmond. The Rams are currently ranked 3rd in defensive efficiency per Kenpom, and they can absolutely shut teams down, having not allowed more than 66 points in any game this season.
Assuming the Rams D does their job, I see this game staying well under the total as this is one of those grinder type of games where points are going to be hard to come by. Dayton has shown flashes of being very good, like when they inexplicably knocked off Kansas earlier this year, but the offense has gone stagnant recently, which has led to a 2-2 record in their last 4 games. This game is a first one to 60 points wins type of contest, and it will stay well under the total.
Houston Cougars at South Florida Bulls Under 121.5
We just talked about how good the VCU defense is, and this Houston Cougars squad is on that same elite level, currently ranked 8th in the nation in defensive efficiency. The Cougars have held teams to scores below 50 points 6 times already this season, and they make you work for each and every basket.
IT'S #AmericanHoops ? GAME DAY in TAMPA ?
— Houston Men's Hoops ? ? (@UHCougarMBK) January 5, 2022
That doesn’t bode well for South Florida as they just might have the worst offense of any major conference team, as they are 333rd in scoring offense. The last time that the Bulls played a good defensive team, they managed just 39 points against BYU. This one is going to be ugly with a capital U! Expect Houston to blow it out and keep this game over the total in a laugher.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Notre Dame Fighting Irish Over 143.5
We already talked a little bit about this game above, and you know that I like UNC to win the game on the road, and I will double down my action on the game and take the over as well. This line opened up at 147 points, and that felt a bit low, as Kenpom projects this one at 151 points.
But the public hasn’t seen it that way, as they have hammered the under, driving this line all of the way down to where it stands now at 143.5 points. I love nothing more than being able to fade ignorant public lines moves, and that is what I will get to do in this one. A gap this big between the data and the line is nearly unheard of, and there is lots of value on the over tonight in South Bend.
Game Total Parlay
- Teams Odds
- VCU Rams at Dayton Flyers Under 125.5 -110
- Houston Cougars at South Florida Bulls Under 121.5 -110
- North Carolina Tar Heels at Notre Dame Fighting Irish Over 143.5 -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
The daily dog parlay is a play where all we take are money line underdogs. Parlaying underdogs is the best way to rack up jumbo payouts on small upfront investments. Want to win a jackpot payout? Then parlaying underdogs is for you!
DePaul Blue Demons (+175) at St. John’s Red Storm
Normally, I am all about the data and analytics. I do my best not to allow my eyeballs to deceive me and make plays that aren’t supported by the data. But every once in a while, I go with a gut check pick, and that is what I am going to do today in this game between St. John’s and DePaul. St. John’s has been like a broken record over the course of the last several years, as they always start out hot beating up on bad teams, as they schedule weak in the non-conference, and then when league play starts, they completely fall apart.
I see that happening again this year for the Red Storm, as I am not a believer in their 8-3 start. That collapse may have already started as the Jonnies lost to Pitt in their last game as big favorites, and something tells me that DePaul is going to sneak out of MSG with a win tonight. This bet is a complete fade of St. John’s as the Blue Demons aren’t very good either, but sometimes you gotta trust your gut, and my gut says that St. John’s is a fraud. I will take a shot on a big money line dog upset and back DePaul.
Alabama Crimson Tide (+110) at Florida Gators
The Alabama Crimson Tide might be the hardest to predict team in the nation. ‘Bama has all of the talent in the world, enough even to win a national title, but their brand of basketball is high variance, and we have seen that a lot this season. The Tide beat Gonzaga and Houston in back-to-back games and then added a win over Tennessee to their resume, knocking off the Vols in their last game. But Alabama also has hard to explain losses to Iona, Davidson, and Memphis. To put it bluntly, this team can beat any team in the country, and they can lose to any team in the country.
Ready for our first SEC road test
? 6 p.m. CT
? Stephen C. O’Connell Center
?https://t.co/bJUkAye47q#RollTide | #BlueCollarBasketball pic.twitter.com/5ERnFfwPwn
— Alabama Men’s Basketball (@AlabamaMBB) January 5, 2022
The reason that the results are all over the place for Alabama is that they live and die by the 3. Nate Oat’s boys either shoot from the paint, the free throw line, or from deep, as they take zero mid-range shots. For the Gators, they too are hard to pin down, as they have a seemingly solid record at 9-3 with wins over Florida State and Ohio State, but in their last 7 games, they are just 4-3, and they haven’t beaten a team ranked inside the top-200 since November! I think that lack of competition is going to come back to haunt Florida as they are going to be in for a wake-up call tonight at home against a dangerous Alabama team.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
- Teams Odds
- DePaul Blue Demons +175
- Alabama Crimson Tide +110
$100 Bet Pays $578
Point Spread Plays
In this final section, we are making plays on the point spread. A point spread bet is the most basic of all college hoops bets. In order to cash a bet on the point spread, your team must cover the number. Like a team as a big favorite? You might have to lay a bunch of points in order to win your bet. Think the underdog will lose, but keep the game close? Then snatching up the points is the side you’ll want to be on.
Furman Paladins at UNC Greensboro Spartans (+4.5)
There are two teams this year at UNC-Greensboro, the team they are at home, and the team they are everywhere else. On the surface, the Spartans 8-4 record isn’t all that impressive, but their 5-0 record at home is certainly worth bragging about. And when you see that 2 of those 4 losses for Greensboro came in overtime, this team isn’t that far away from having a more than respectable record. The Spartans welcome the Furman Paladins to town tonight with a chance to add a signature win to their record.
The national spotlight awaits the Spartans upon their return to game action. It's been 20 days, but we're excited to host Furman tomorrow on ESPN News at 7 p.m. #letsgoG
— UNCG Basketball (@UNCGBasketball) January 4, 2022
Furman is a great small conference program, but they struggled last season, and they are again down this year. Unlike the Spartans, who are 0-2 in overtime games, the Paladins are 3-1 in overtime games, which tells me that if the ball bounced the other way late in a couple of those games, the Paladins already mediocre 9-6 record could be much worse.
This game boils down to home/road splits. Greensboro is undefeated at home, and Furman has lost each of their last 4 road games, including bad losses to VMI and Winthrop. I will snatch up the points and back the home team as Furman is going to be on upset alert tonight on the road.
Syracuse Orange at Miami Hurricanes (-2)
I have watched Syracuse play several times this season, and they seem content to jack up bad shots every trip down the court. With the Boeheim brothers and Joey Girard thinking that they have Steph Curry range, spoiler alert, they don’t, Syracuse gets a lot of no pass, one-and-done possessions. It is hard to win games when you play that style of ball, and it is going to cost them tonight on the road at Miami.
The Hurricanes got off to a slow start this year, but they are playing some really good basketball recently, as they ride a 7-game winning streak into this one. That run includes a 3-0 start in ACC play with wins over Clemson, NC State, and Wake Forrest. We all know that the ACC is down, but if Miami can go 4-0 to start out league play, they have to be considered an NCAA tournament team. That is exactly what I see happening tonight in Miami, as the Hurricanes are going to take advantage of this attractive matchup with a win and cover at home.
Creighton Blue Jays (+11.5) at Villanova Wildcats
How much is home court worth? We will find out tonight in this one, as we just saw Creighton and Villanova play in Omaha a couple of weeks back. In that one, the Blue Jays dominated the game throughout, eventually blowing out the Wildcats 79-59. That game was likely a little bit fluky, as I don’t see the Blue Jays as 20 points better than Villanova, but the Blue Jays have won 3 of their last 4 games with nice wins over BYU and Marquette to go along with the upset over Villanova.
The Wildcats have played an absolute savage schedule, with games against UCLA, Tennessee, Purdue, and Baylor, and while I do see the ‘Cats as dark horse national title contenders, they did go just 1-3 in those 4 games. I can’t imagine we are going to see a repeat of the first game these teams played, and I do think that Villanova wins this game, but double-digit points seem excessive. Creighton is playing their best basketball of the season right now, and I think they keep it close enough to cover tonight in PA.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (+4) at Iowa State Cyclones
Our final play of the day comes to us from the Big 12 as the upstart Iowa State Cyclones host the Texas Tech Red Raiders. Iowa State was picked to finish dead last in the Big 12 this year and shocked the nation when they jumped out to a 12-0 start in the non-conference. And it’s not like they were playing a bunch of cupcakes either, as the Cyclones played, and beat, teams like Xavier, Memphis, Creighton, and Iowa. But life in the Big 12 is nasty, and despite giving them a good game, the Cyclones lost to Baylor to start their conference season 0-1.
Things aren’t going to get any easier any time soon for Iowa State, as they are projected to lose each of their next 5 games. With games on their schedule coming up against Texas at home and Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas Tech on the road, finding a way to win tonight at home will be huge for the Cyclones NCAA tournament dreams.
? Big 12 Battle 1⃣⚫️ pic.twitter.com/gEBtCA9JOv
— Texas Tech Basketball (@TexasTechMBB) January 5, 2022
I love what is going on in Aimes, and it is great to see this typically cellar-dwelling program win some games, but I think Iowa State has done most of their winning for the year already. I see this game playing out a lot like the Baylor game, where Iowa State plays hard and keeps it close, but inevitably comes up just short. I am taking Texas Tech with the +4-point insurance policy just in case things don’t go our way late.
Point Spread Plays Parlay
- Teams Odds
- UNC Greensboro Spartans (+4.5) -110
- Miami Hurricanes (-2) -110
- Creighton Blue Jays (+11.5) -110
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (+4) -110
$100 Bet Pays $1,329
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on NCAA Men’s College Hoops can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s NCAA Men’s Basketball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free college hoops picks each and every day!